Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 220206 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 906 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN FRINGES OF MAINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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DECREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARD MORNING. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR. A SURFACE TROF WILL EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY EARLY EVENING. HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END W/CLEARING EXPECTED. THIS SHOWS UP ON THE 12Z NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS W/THE 850-700MB LAYER DRYING OUT. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO DROP POPS BACK BELOW 15% BY THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE DROPPING OFF AS WELL W/THE RIDGE BUILDING IN. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO SOME COLD TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NOVEMBER. WE ARE TALKING SINGLE NUMBERS FOR THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF MAINE W/READINGS AOB BELOW 0F FOR AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AND BACK TO NW. 10-15 DEGREES SHOULD DO FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS LATE SATURDAY WILL MOVE TO THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH RESULTING IN OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN MAINE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS SNOW SUNDAY THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION TO MIXED AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKES PALCE ALOFT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR WINDS SINCE IT CAN BETTER HANDLE DECOUPLING WINDS IN ENTRENCHED COLD AIR MASS AT SURFACE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE NAM12 DURING WARM ADVECTION ALOFT THEN TRANSITION TO RAW BLEND TO BETTER HANDLE TRANSITION TO WARM AIR MASS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF JAMES BAY MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PIVOT AROUND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE EAST. ALL 12 GFS EMSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS ALSO SIMILAR WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH SOME VARY IN BOTH INTENSITY AND TIMIMG. SO EXPECT TRANSITION TO LIQUID PRECIPITATION TO TAKE PLACE QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH DYNAMIC SYSTEM PASSING TO THE WEST. FOR TUESDAY EXPECT DRIER AIR MASS WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BOTH OPERATIONAL GFS....OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND MOST GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OVER ATLANTIC ALONG EAST COAST. GFS EMSEMBLE DIVIDED ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO SATURDAY W/THE EXCEPTION FOR KFVE AS MVFR IS POSSIBLE W/THE LIGHT SNOW. EVEN KCAR RUNS THE RISK OF SEEING A PERIOD OF MVFR. SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THEN IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH 12 PM SATURDAY AS WINDS GUSTS TO 25 KTS STILL POSSIBLE. A LLVL JET OF AROUND 40 KT IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS WIND TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ATTM, BROUGHT WINDS GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS BY 00Z. LATER CREWS CAN ASSESS THE NEED TO UPGRADE TO GALES IF NEEDED. WAVE HEIGHTS ATTM WERE RUNNING 4-5 FT AND ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK INTO SATURDAY W/THE OFFSHORE WIND. SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPER BLEND WINDS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT SOTHERLY WIND WAVE TO BECOME THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES OFF THE COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERLY FETCH INCREASES FROM THE GULF OF MAINE SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM TO PERSIST INTO EARLY TUESDAY THEN BE BROKEN UP BY OFF-SHORE FLOW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...CB/HEWITT/MCB SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...CB/HEWITT/MIGNONE MARINE...CB/HEWITT/MIGNONE

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