Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 250205 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1005 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND INTRODUCE MORE SUMMER LIKE...HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 950 PM UPDATE: TWO CHGS THIS UPDATE. THE FIRST WAS TO INCREASE POPS A LITTLE TO LOW CHC CATEGORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE EVE FOR THE GROUP OF SHWRS CURRENTLY OVR DOWNEAST ME. THESE SHWRS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LVL IMPULSE RACING ESE FROM SRN QB PROV. ANOTHER IMPULSE FROM CNTRL QB COULD RESULT IN ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHWRS TO NRN ME VERY LATE TNGT INTO ERLY MON MORN. THE SECOND CHG WAS TO LOWER OVRNGT LOWS ABOUT 2 TO 5 DEG F ACROSS THE FA BASE ON 9 PM OBSVD TEMPS...WHICH CAME IN SEVERAL DEG COOLER THAN OUR HRLY FCST FROM THE PREV UPDATE. WE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSOLIDATED MOS...WHICH WAS THE COOLEST FCST FOR OVRNGT LOWS WITHOUT SIG MANUALLY CHGNG THIS FCST GRID. FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE THEN MODIFIED FROM THE 9 PM OBSVD TEMPS TO FCST LOWS AT 4 TO 5 AM...TO FCST TEMPS AT 8 AM...WHICH WILL SHOW A VERY SIG RISE FROM FCST LOWS AS A WARM FRONT ECLIPSES THE ST JOHN VLY BY THIS TM. ORGNL DISC: A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC BROUGHT A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN US...THE FRONT HAS STALLED. AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS VERY MODEST...JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF THE SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY INTO THE DOWN EAST REGION. THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE EVENING. RISING HEIGHTS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AS WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS. WITH THE WARMER AIR MASS IN PLACE MONDAY...EXPECT SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE LOW. AFTERNOON MIXING WILL AGAIN GENERATE WIND GUSTS TOWARDS 25 MPH. THIS WILL MAKE FIRE WEATHER THE KEY CONCERN ON MONDAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WMFNT WL MV THRU CWA MON NGT WITH SWATH OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AS IT LIFTS THRU. 12Z GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF PCPN BUT LOOKS AS THO ENTIRE CWA WL SEE SHOWERS AT SOME POINT THRU 12Z. NAM IS QUICKEST LIFTING FRONT NORTH OF MAINE WITH GFS AND EC SLOWEST. STRENGTHENING UPR LVL RIDGE WL BUILD INTO CWA DRG THE DAY TUESDAY WITH BEST FRCG RMNG JUST NORTH INTO CANADA. HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS EXPECTED MAY LEAD TO ISOLD THUNDER DVLPNG DRG THE AFTN AS CAPES EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 300-500 J/KG THUS HV ADDED IN THUNDER MENTION TO ZONES MAINLY NORTH OF THE COAST BTWN 16Z TUE AND 00Z WED. TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ON TUESDAY FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST ZONES BUT RMNG IN THE 70S ACRS EXTRM NORTH AND COASTAL CNTYS. WEDNESDAY MAXES EXPECTED TO BE ARND 80F MOST PLACES WITH XCPTN OF COASTAL ZONES. HV ADDED IN AREAS OF FOG DOWN SOUTH DRG THE LATE NIGHT HRS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WARM SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE EAST. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARM WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING CLOUDS, A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, FRIDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH STRONG RIDGING REMAINING IN THE AREA AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR MID SUMMER NORMS. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD THEN FOLLOW FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL RECUR MONDAY WITH SPEEDS OVER 25 KTS AT TIMES. SHORT TERM: MVFR AND OCNL IFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS WMFNT BRINGS -SHRA TO THE AREA. EXPECTED TUESDAY TO BE MAINLY VFR HOWEVER THIS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON IF -TSRA CAN AFFECT TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA AS STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS WERE PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT MIXING AND RESULTANT WIND GUSTS. THE WAVE FORECAST IS ALSO TOO HIGH IN RESPONSE TO THE OVER-FORECAST WINDS. EXPECT WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM: TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO BRING WIND GUSTS TO POSSIBLE SCA CONDITION ON WED/WED NIGHT. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS TO 5 FEET OR HIGHER BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER... IN COORDINATION WITH MAINE FOREST SERVICE...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...GUSTY WEST WINDS REACHING NEARLY 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH GREEN-UP HAS OCCURRED...LITTLE RAINFALL HAS FALLEN IN RECENT WEEKS AND FINE FUELS ARE DRY. NUMEROUS FIRES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST TWO DAYS...MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS FORECAST AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HIGHER. MONDAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH ONLY THE 2ND DAY OF WIDESPREAD 80F READINGS IN THIS FORECAST AREA. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...FARRAR LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...VJN/FARRAR MARINE...VJN/FARRAR FIRE WEATHER...MCW

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