Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCAR 200256
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
956 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017
High pressure will build over the area tonight and remain across
the region on Friday. A cold front will cross the region
Saturday. High pressure will build north of the region Sunday
into Monday. Low pressure will intensify along the mid Atlantic
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
935 PM Update: Latest radar ref shows a few lgt returns and with
flurries obsvd at KFVE, we optd to include sct flurries for the N
hlf of the region until the late ngt. Otherwise, based on the
latest trend of obsvd mid eve temps compared to the prev fcst for
this tm, we also raised fcst lows a few deg F msly across the Nrn
two thirds of the region, thinking that cldnss will linger well
into the ngt. Fcst hrly temps and dwpts were then adjusted into
the erly morn hrs Fri.
Orgnl Disc: The weak upper level trough which brought some light
snow last night into today will slide east and away through the
Maritimes tonight. A weak area of high pressure will build over
the area tonight bringing tranquil conditions with partial
clearing. The high will remain over the area on Friday. This will
bring tranquil weather with partial sunshine. Temperatures will
average around 10 to 15 degrees above normal tonight and Friday as
an upper level ridge of high pressure begins to build into the
area. Some high clouds from a weak shortwave in northern Quebec
may increase across northern areas late in the day on Friday.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will cross the region Friday night with partly/mostly
cloudy skies. A cold front then crosses the region Saturday with
partly/mostly cloudy skies across the north and mountains with
partly cloudy skies across the remainder of the forecast area.
High pressure builds north of the region Saturday night into
Sunday. Expect partly/mostly cloudy skies across the north and
mountains Saturday night into Sunday along with a slight chance
of snow showers Sunday. Generally expect partly cloudy skies
across the remainder of the forecast area Saturday night/Sunday.
Temperatures will be at above normal levels Saturday/Sunday.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain north of the region Sunday night while
low pressure develops across the mid-Atlantic region. High
pressure remains north of the region Monday while the low
intensifies along the mid-Atlantic coast. Skies will remain partly
cloudy across northern areas Monday, with increasing clouds
Downeast. The high to the north will provide low level cold air
across the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday, while
temperatures aloft begin to warm with the low lifting toward the
southern New England coast. The low will track across the Gulf of
Maine toward Nova Scotia Tuesday into Wednesday. North to
northeast winds between the high to the north and the approaching
low will keep low level cold air across the region Tuesday into
Wednesday, while temperatures warm aloft. Expect snow to develop
across northern areas Monday night with a wintry mix developing
across the remainder of the forecast area. Uncertainty still
exists regarding exact precipitation types and amounts Tuesday
into Wednesday, though significant precipitation is possible.
Enough low level warming should occur to allow precipitation to
transition to rain near the Downeast coast Tuesday. Across the
remainder of the forecast area expect varying amounts of snow,
sleet and freezing rain Tuesday into early Wednesday. The low
exits across the maritimes Wednesday. Mixed precipitation will
transition to snow showers across northern areas Wednesday
afternoon, with snow/rain showers across the remainder of the
forecast area. Low pressure will cross the region Wednesday night
into Thursday, drawing a cold front across the region Thursday.
Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of snow showers
across the forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday.
Temperatures will be at above normal levels across the forecast
area Monday into Thursday.
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions in variable low clouds will persist
tonight. Conditions will likely improve to VFR on Friday as high
pressure builds over the area.
SHORT TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions, mostly ceilings, are
expected across the region Friday night into Saturday. Occasional
MVFR conditions are possible across the north and mountains
Saturday night into Sunday with generally VFR conditions Downeast.
Generally VFR conditions are expected across the region Monday,
though MVFR conditions could begin to develop Bangor and Downeast
later Monday. Conditions will lower to IFR/LIFR levels across the
forecast area Monday night, with IFR/LIFR conditions persisting
Tuesday. Snow is expected across northern areas Monday night with
a wintry mix developing across the remainder of the forecast area.
A wintry mix is expected across much of the forecast area
Tuesday, with precipitation transitioning to rain along the
NEAR TERM: 935 PM Update...Wv hts were increased by a foot across
our waters ovr the prev fcst based on latest buoy obs. We merge to
WW3 wv guidance hts by erly Fri morn as swell hts slowly diminish
Orgnl Disc...Winds and seas will be below SCA tonight and Friday
as high pressure building over the waters brings tranquil
SHORT TERM: Conditions are expected to be below small craft
advisory levels Friday night through much of Sunday, with small
craft advisory conditions starting to develop later Sunday.