Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 011507 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1007 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 945AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS TO MEET THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. A NICE AFTERNOON SETTING UP FOR THE REGION. SKY CONDITIONS WERE ADJUSTED TO BRING PERCENTAGES UP ACROSS THE DOWNEAST PER THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE W. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE NEAR CAPE COD LATE THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT ENROUTE TO HALIFAX. THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW FROM THE STORM WITH THE BEST QPF ALONG THE WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST WHERE THREE- TENTHS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED. WITH SNOW-WATER RATIOS GENERALLY AROUND 15 TO 1 OR HIGHER...THIS TRANSLATES TO A NARROW SWATH OF 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR HARD-HIT MACHIAS AND EASTPORT AS WELL AS MDI. AMOUNTS WILL TAPER TO THE NORTH SUCH JUST AN INCH IS FORECAST FOR FORT KENT AND MADAWASKA. WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 4 INCHES...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES UNTIL LATER TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE STATE TUESDAY. EXPECT SNOW TO END LATE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. WILL USE A MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE NAM... GFS AND ECMWF FOR POP... SKY AND QPF. HAVE USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR WINDS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE LOW. COLD AIR WILL RETURN AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. IFR TONIGHT IN SNOW FOR ALL SITES. LIFR POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT BGR AND BHB. SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO VFR MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING IN THE OUTER WATERS THEN DECREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE GALE WATCH OUT...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO CREATE A SECOND HEADLINE. SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES: EXPECT OFF-SHORE WIND WAVE TO DOMINATE MONDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS DEPENDENT ON FETCH DISTANCE OFF-SHORE. SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE GRIDS THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WW III. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCW SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...HEWITT/MCW/MIGNONE MARINE...HEWITT/MCW/MIGNONE

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