Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 201413 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1013 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE 1015 AM EDT: UPDATED TO DROP THE SCA FROM THE INTERCOASTAL WATERS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT. WITH DATA OUTAGE WILL MANUALLY ADJUST WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY QPF TODAY OR TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A RETURN TO A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO BE HEADING OUR WAY. TUESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY FOR THE MOST PART W/INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM QUEBEC WHILE LOW PRES MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE NE STATES. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE LOW TO SOUTH IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP AS IT HITS THE ATLC SEABOARD. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN COULD ALSO BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS SUCH AS PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS AND EVEN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND DEFORMATION BANDING AS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF. PLUS, THERE IS A SUSTAINED ESE FETCH FROM 925-700MBS OVERRUNNING A ENE FLOW IN THE BLYR. THE NAM AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/SHOWING THIS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS TERM WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS CONCENTRATED W/IT PRECIP BUT DOES POINT TO THE BANDING GIVEN IS STRONG FORCING SHOWN AT 700MBS. ATTM, DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT AND SHOW RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO ABOVE 80% BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN MAINE. QPF WAS ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY AT LEAST 0.25" ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BANDING AND UPPER DIFLUENCE POTENTIAL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A SHOWERY NATURE BEFORE ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOW PRES WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AS MENTIONED BY THE DAYCREW AND SLOWLY LIFT NNE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THEN INTO MARITIMES EARLY SATURDAY. DEFORMATION BANDING AND UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AS STATED ABOVE, THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO STORM TOTALS HITTING 2 TO 4 INCHES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERN GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT THE REGION RECEIVED LAST WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION W/A RETURN TO DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS STILL TIME TO ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: VFR GOING TO MVFR AND THEN IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY W/MVFR BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR BY LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY W/ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR FOR THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HAVE USED NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND GRIDS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT LOCAL WIND WAVE TO BE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. LOCAL WINDS CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE PERIOD. SECONDARY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST 2-3 FEET/12 SECONDS BASE ON SPECTRAL DATA FROM 44027. EXPECT THIS WAVE SYSTEM TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE USE 0300Z RUN OF NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL TO INITIALIZE GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVES FIRST 6 HOURS AS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS GOING INTO MODEL APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE HIGH. PLAN TO EXTEND SCA WITH COMBINATION WIND GUSTS AND BUILDING COMBINED SEA LATER IN PERIOD AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST (LONGER FETCH) AND LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM PERSISTS. SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS COULD BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND LOW PRES TO THE S. A PROLONGED ENE FLOW WILL DEFINITELY BRING IN LARGER WAVES & WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 25 KTS W/GUSTS HITTING 35 KTS ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LOOSEN AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS ON THURSDAY. DECIDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO A RANGE 10-12 FT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ATTM, WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR ANY OVERWASH PROBLEMS FOR THE COAST AS THE FLOW FOR ONE WILL BE PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND 2ND, WAVE PERIODS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050- 051. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORTON SHORT TERM...HEWITT LONG TERM...HEWITT AVIATION...NORTON/HEWITT MARINE...NORTON/HEWITT

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