Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 170927 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 427 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build across the region today and move east tonight. A weak area of low pressure will cross the region Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High pressure will build across the region today with abundant sunshine and continued below normal temperatures. Afternoon highs today will range from the low to mid teens north and low to mid 20s central and down east. High pressure will continue to build across the region tonight. This should allow for decent radiational cooling conditions, with light winds and mainly clear skies expected this evening. Temperatures will fall off rather quickly after sunset under clear skies and light winds. However, high clouds will begin to increase across the region after midnight. Despite the increasing high clouds, lows tonight are expected to fall to 5 to 10 below across the north and zero to 10 above across down east areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A weak s/wv movg ese from Cntrl QB will bring msly Downeast and Cntrl ptns of the Rgn lgt sn Mon aftn/erly eve aft increasing cldnss Mon morn with max snfl upwards of an inch alg the Downeast coast. Hi Temps will remain sig below avg, but behind the s/wv Mon ngt, with a lack of llvl cold air and cont`d cld cvr, ovrngt low temps will be milder. Another s/wv on the heels of Mon`s system will bring the next opportunity of lgt snfl to msly Nrn ptns of the FA by Tue aftn, cont into eve, with Downeast and perhaps eve Cntrl ptns of the Rgn mixing with or even chgng to lgt rn as strong llvl warm advcn develops with the sfc low tracking well N of the Rgn into Ern QB. Colder air behind the sfc low then arrives Wed morn/aftn with brisk NW winds msly Nrn sct sn shwrs and possible sn squalls.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Much colder and dry conditions will follow for Wed ngt thru Thu ngt as mdt residence arctic air prevails. Winds will diminish Thu ngt for some radiational cooling, which will likely be somewhat lmtd by the presence of hi cldnss. Many 00z varying dtmnstc model runs have now trended N with the sfc low(s) xpctd to impact the Rgn later Fri into the weekend. Of these model runs, we prefer the 00z CanGem attm, with a more srn track of the low from Srn QB on Fri into Nrn Washington county by Sat aftn. This solution better matches CPC`s outlook of fcst 500mb ht anomalies in the 6-10 day outlook and respective sfc temp/precip anomalies impacting our FA durg this tm in addition to the track record of antecedent events that occurred with as much llvl cold air in advance ovr our Rgn. Subsequently, precip types across our FA Fri aftn thru Sat showing sn N and mixed precip and or rn Cntrl and Downeast better correspond best to the CanGem solution. With potential sig equiv precip amts with this event, we will need to monitor the potential of at least wntr wx advs for ptns of the FA receiving wintery precip as this event gets closer to the near term later this week.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected through tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions Mon morn will lower to MVFR or even IFR ovr Downeast sites in a pd of lgt sn Mon aftn in erly eve while Nrn TAF sites remain VFR. All sites will then remain VFR Mon ngt into Tue morn. Nrn TAF sites will then lower to MVFR or IFR in intermittent lgt sn Tue aftn into Tue ngt while Downeast sites lower to low VFR or MVFR in lgt mixed precip, rn , or rn/sn shwrs. Downeast sites recover to low VFR on Wed while Nrn TAF sites cont with MVFR SC cld clgs with flurries and isold sn shwrs. All sites then recover to VFR for Wed ngt and Thu.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Conditions will generally remain below small craft advisory levels through tonight. There will be a few gusts early this morning up to 25 kt. SHORT TERM: Initially no hdlns, then winds and seas increase to SCA later Tue and cont so thru Wed ngt before subsiding below SCA on Thu. Went with blended WW3/NWPS guidance for fcst wv hts.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Wind Chill Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for MEZ001-002. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Duda/VJN Marine...Duda/VJN

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