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077
FXUS61 KCAR 281644
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1244 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly exit to the east today. A cold front
approaches today and crosses the region tonight. High pressure
builds in on Monday. Low pressure will approach from the west
Tuesday and track south of the Gulf of Maine into Wednesday.
High pressure settles in from the west and then over the area by
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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12:44PM Update...More showers developing along the Quebec and
Maine Border in the North Woods. Earlier showers becoming very
light and falling apart across Downeast Maine into Penobscot
County. Expecting these very light showers to move east into
Washington County. Otherwise made minor tweaks to POPs, Temps &
Dew Points.

8:42AM Update...Regional radars show the first wave of showers
working into the North Woods this morning and western St. John
Valley. Expecting scattered showers today with a few rounds of
showers pushing through the area. Not a lot of precip with most
locations seeing less than 0.1 inch. Minor tweaks to Temp/Dews
across the area with the Min RH values dropping into the mid to
upper 30 percent range across far eastern areas from Houlton
southward to the Route 9 corridor in Interior Washington
County. No other changes made...

previous discussion
Upper ridge aloft begins to break down today in advance of an
approaching frontal system from the west. The surface high continues
to drift southeast out into the open waters of the western Atlantic.
As it does so, southerly flow in advance of the approaching frontal
boundary results in some increase in low level moisture with pwats
increasing to around 1" later this afternoon. Despite this, any
showers with the approaching short wave and cold front look rather
spotty and disorganized. Thus, continued with scattered pops
this afternoon. This afternoon`s high once again will top at
around the 60 degree mark for most areas, except it will be
cooler along the coast. The cold front begins to cross far
northern areas this evening and the moves off the coast by
sunrise Monday. Could be scattered showers with the front as it
crosses the region, otherwise expect mainly cloudy skies
tonight. Wind will shift into the northwest tonight behind the
front, as high pressure near Hudson Bay builds east toward the
region. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s to near 40
north and lower 40s elsewhere.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure and dry Canadian air will be in control over the area
into the middle part of the week. Cold front will be offshore by
Monday morning with cooler and drier air filtering in behind. Skies
will be clearing from southwest to northeast during the day with
entire area mostly sunny mid-late afternoon. Cold advection will
compete with strong late April sun and will likely keep temps around
normal across the north with lwr 60s over Downeast in offshore flow.
Northwest winds will frequently gust to between 20-30kts with
mixing up to H8.

Winds remain mixed Monday night and with clear skies expected temps
should be able to drop to around freezing acrs the north. Temps on
Tuesday will be warmer acrs the north with Downeast slightly cooler
than on Monday. Weak wave will likely be getting squashed to our
south Tuesday night with best chance for measurable rainfall
expected over Downeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Sfc low looks to move well south of the coast Wed afternoon given
upr air pattern with showers exiting Downeast during the late
morning. Brief s/wv ridge builds in for Thursday as nrn stream wave
moves thru central Quebec before dropping into nrn zones in the
afternoon with good chance for showers affecting the region Thursday
night. Both operational GFS/CMC keep the area dry on Friday with
operational EC hinting at a warm front over the area late in the
afternoon. Given differences in guidance have kept lochc pops over
the entire area during the day. By the early part of the weekend
models continue to differ on speed of features associated with upr
low in the vicinity of the upr Midwest of the US/southern Canada.

As for temps, above normal temps are expected. However given
possible showers over the area during the day showers and
clouds may keep highs slightly cooler than currently forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR all terminals through most of the afternoon
hours. MVFR possible mainly after 22z in lowering ceilings and
isolated to scattered showers. MVFR conditions then expected
this evening through most of tonight. A brief period of IFR
ceilings are possible around time of FROPA, especially KFVE. S
wind 10 to 15 kt with G20kt this afternoon. Wind becoming NW 5
to 15 kt after midnight from N to S.

SHORT TERM:
Monday-Tuesday...VFR. NNW 10-20kts on Monday with gusts to 25 kts, N
5-15kts Monday night and Tuesday.

Tuesday night ...VFR north, MVFR Downeast in light showers. NNE 5-
10kts.

Wednesday-Thursday...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR in light showers north
late Thursday. NE 5-10kts Wednesday, lgt/vrb Wednesday night then
becoming S 5-10kts Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through
tonight.

SHORT TERM: Cannot rule out SCA conditions over the outer
waters Tuesday morning with marginal north winds expected. Winds
and seas will remain below SCA conditions outside of Tuesday
morning with seas around 2ft throughout the period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD/Sinko
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...TWD/Sinko/Buster
Marine...TWD/Sinko/Buster