000
FXUS61 KCAR 161715
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
115 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY AND KEEP CONDITIONS
COOL AND UNSETTLED. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 1310L: SFC AND UPPER LOW PRES OVR FAR NRN MAINE/SRN QUEBEC
ATTM W/ MOIST CYC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. CLDS MOST WDSPRD ACROSS
THE N ALONG W/ SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS W/ DCRSG CLDS/SHOWERS TO
THE S W/ WSW LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SOME DRYING FROM DOWNSLOPING.
CURRENT PCKG ON TRACK W/ NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED ATTM...

UPDATE 0955L: ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CLRG TREND
ACROSS OUR SWRN AREAS.  REMAINDER OF THE FCST ON TRACK ATTM...

0615AM UPDATE...
CHANGED SCA FROM GENERIC TO HAZARDOUS SEAS AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF
FOG ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE TODAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CAPE IS RATHER MODEST BUT
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING. HIGHS NORTH OF HOULTON WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST...MORE
CLEARING WILL OCCUR AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH AS HIGH AS
70F. THIS WILL MEAN DEEP LAYER MIXING AND VERY GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH CROSSING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS WILL EASILY REACH 35 MPH AT TIMES AND POTENTIALLY MORE.
AFTER THIS TROUGH CROSSES AND THE LOW MOVES INTO NEW BRUNSWICK
THIS EVENING...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER
TONIGHT IN NORTHERN ZONES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S
FOR THE ALLAGASH AND LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE AREA AT 12Z FRI WILL
DROP SOUTH INTO THE MARITIMES BY 00Z SUN. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA
IN A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
850 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE -2 TO -4C ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO
AROUND ZERO (C) DOWNEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE LOW WILL LEAD TO SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE CROWN OF MAINE FRIDAY.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT AND MOISTURE IN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER FOR A DECENT CU FIELD TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI AND SAT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AND ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOW 60S FOR
INLAND DOWNEAST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO PULL THE EAST SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A
WARMER AIR MASS TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
A SFC HIGH WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT AND WITH A LIGHT/CALM
WIND IN MANY AREAS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO
THE 20S IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS...AND POTENTIALLY NEAR FREEZING
EVEN FOR INLAND DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF FROST. WHAT APPEARS LIKELY IS THAT THERE WILL BE
A WARMER AIR MASS ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE 18Z GFS BRINGING A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NW TUESDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND A COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS A CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LATEST 00Z RUN HOLDS THE FRONT UP ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF THAT HAS
THE FRONT BECOMING MORE OR LESS QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA
TUE INTO WED KEEPING IT UNSETTLED AS DISTURBANCES AND WAVES OF
MOISTURE RIDE UP ALONG THE FRONT. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TO
BE IN LINE WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN IN KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT LIKELY NOT TOO FAR FROM SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS WILL LIFT TO
MVFR THIS MORNING. BGR AND BHB WILL LIFT FIRST BY MID
MORNING...BECOME VFR AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN
AVIATION IMPACT AT BGR THIS AFTERNOON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTS WELL IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST. NORTH OF HUL...MVFR IN SHOWERS WILL BE
THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION TODAY. THE SHOWERS WILL END LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THE MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR FRI-SUN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE
HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS (BKN-OVC025) AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FRI
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY TO DETERIORATE MON OR MON NIGHT
AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.MARINE...
0615AM UPDATE...
CHANGED SCA FROM GENERIC TO HAZARDOUS SEAS AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF
FOG ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING.

NEAR TERM: THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE CROSSED THE WATERS AND WINDS
WILL DIMINISH. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL REMAIN OVER SCA CRITERIA OF 5
FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT. FURTHERMORE...GUSTS NEAR THE COAST WILL
REACH OVER 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE LEFT THE
GENERIC SCA IN PLACE RATHER THAN TRANSITIONING TO AN SCA FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS.

SHORT TERM: A LIGHT WIND REGIME EXPECTED FRI-SUN.  SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY FRI MORNING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/MCW
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...KHW/MCW/CB
MARINE...KHW/MCW/CB