Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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634 FXUS61 KCAR 061804 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 104 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CREST OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK ARE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND WILL SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. TIMING FOR TOMORROW`S COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE NEAR DAYBREAK IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY...MID TO LATE MORNING NEAR HOULTON AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR BANGOR. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND GUSTY WINDS OVER 40 MPH. THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE UP TO A QUICK INCH OF SNOW AS IT PASSES IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SFC HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OR CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICTURES ACROSS ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN A BIT TODAY INTO TONIGHT PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO FAR NW MAINE BY AROUND 09Z AND QUICKLY SWEEP INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUN. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TODAY WITH SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND THIS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK DOWNEAST. A PERIOD OF WEAK OVERRUNNING SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS WITH ANY SNOW ACCUM TO BE UNDER AN INCH. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NW MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT IT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS, BUT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED JUST BEYOND THE NEAR TERM. THE CLOUDS AND SOME WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS IN THE FAR NW TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT RACES THROUGH. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY, DRAGGING ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PINE TREE STATE. THIS WILL BE A RATHER SHARP FRONT WITH RAPID COOLING AFTER ITS PASSAGE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THERE WILL BE DECENT INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT AS LAPSE RATES WILL EXCEED 7 C/KM. AS SUCH, EXPECT SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER VALUES. ANY SQUALLS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NEAR- WHITE OUT CONDITIONS, STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR MORE, AND A QUICK INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS WELL, USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 20 ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE EARLY, BUT THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOWN THROUGH BANGOR TO THE COAST WILL PEAK IN THE MID 30S AS THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THESE AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE DROPPING BELOW ZERO, WHILE MORE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME AGREEING ON THIS SYSTEM, BOTH MODEL-TO-MODEL AS WELL AS RUN-TO-RUN. THE OVERALL TREND, THOUGH, HAS BEEN TO SHIFT THE STORM AND ITS PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, AWAY FROM SHORE. IN FACT, THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS GIVE EVEN COASTAL DOWNEAST LITTLE TO NO PRECIP THROUGH 7PM MONDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT AND THE FACT THAT IT SEEMS THERE HAS BEEN A MID-TERM SOUTHEAST BIAS LATELY...HAVE KEPT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. MONDAY`S HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 20S DOWNEAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE`S LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE`S AT LEAST SOME CONSENSUS THAT THERE WILL BE A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, THERE`S LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THIS TROUGH. AT THIS TIME, THERE`S A POTENTIAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA SOMETIME TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY, THOUGH EXACT DETAILS ON WHERE, WHEN, AND WHAT SORT OF IMPACTS ARE NOT CLEAR. SOME POORLY DEFINED WAVES LOOK TO FOLLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, WITH OUR AREA TO MAINLY STAY DRY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF US BY THE END OF THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR WITH CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES FROM KHUL TO KFVE. PREDOMINATELY MVFR AT THE NORTHERN SITES TONIGHT, BUT WITH A PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW. VFR EXPECTED AT KBHB AND KBGR THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE NORTHERN SITES SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL BE VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. ONCE THIS GOES BY, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS AS SKIES CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH A GOOD PART OF MONDAY, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES, AS SNOW LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM PASSING LOW PRESSURE. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END, BUT A LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD REMAIN. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HAVE LOWERED THE GALE WARNING TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS, BUT HAVE ISSUED A NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING THIS EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE WIND AND SEAS TODAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS WITH CONDITIONS BRIEFLY BELOW SCA LEVELS, BUT THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE SHORT LIVED. SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE WATERS, RESULTING IN INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. GALE-STRENGTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY, SO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB/MCW SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...CB/MCW/HASTINGS MARINE...CB/MCW/HASTINGS

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