Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 181405 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1005 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SFC OBS SHOW WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOWING UP ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS. THE 12Z KCAR SOUNDING INDICATED THAT THIS LAYER WAS RATHER SHALLOW SO WE SHOULD SEE THIS CLOUD LAYER BEGIN TO BREAK BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ACROSS NYS WILL START TO FILL IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NYS AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL START TO MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON FORECAST MAINLY WITH REGARD TO SKY COVER THE REST OF THE DAY. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTH. THE MOST EXTENSIVE SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S DOWNEAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S NORTH...TO THE MID 40S DOWNEAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND INTENSE LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS MOVING BEHIND THIS FRONT. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR POPS...SKY CONDITIONS AND QPF USING A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECWMF. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE RAWBLEND WITH SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM COULD DEEPEN SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS SOLUTION ALSO SUPPORTED BY MOST GFS ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THIS COULD RESULT IN STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW. WILL USE THE SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MOSTLY FOR SEAS DUE TO A SOUTH SWELL...REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPERBLEND WIND. FOR WAVES: LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM FROM HURRICANE GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WAVE SYSTEM (9 FEET/14-16 SECONDS) WILL CONSTITUTE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP. EXPECT LONG PERIOD WAVES FROM GONZALO TO SUBSIDE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OFF-SHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY WITH THIS LOCAL WAVE SYSTEM BECOMING THE PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM BY SUNDAY EVENING. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL INTO MONDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE

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