Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 212238 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 638 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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630 PM UPDATE...FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE DOWNEAST AND COASTAL AREAS AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT FOG AND LOW CEILINGS NORTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH CLOUD COVER AND A GOOD SOUTHERLY WIND HAS KEPT THE BLYR MIXED. BACKED OFF ON THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS THE FRONT AND BEST UPPER SUPPORT WELL W OF THE CWA. LOW PRES OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST PER THE 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS MOVING NNE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME RAINFALL LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY. COOLING CLOUD TOPS PER THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY COULD SUGGEST SOME CONVECTION, ELEVATED AT BEST. THIS WILL BE MONITORED THIS EVENING. A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. SREF AND GFS ENSM BRING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RNFL TO FAR SE WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH SIG RNFL REACHING FAR SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY OVRNGT (BEGINNING MID TO LATE EVE) WITH THE OPEN ATLC SFC LOW MOVG TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...WHILE OPNL 12Z GFS ...ECMWF AND CAN MODELS ONLY GRAZE WASHINGTON COUNTY. FOR NOW WE TRY TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS OF MODELS...REALIZING THAT WE MAY INCUR SIG RNFL ERRORS OVR THE SE HLF OF THE FA IF EITHER OF THE TWO SCENARIOS ARE CORRECT. OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE APPEARED TO BACK OFF OF SIG COLD FRONTAL SHWR FROM INVADING MUCH OF NW ME PRIOR TO ERLY MON MORN...WITH SHWRS SPREADING EWRD ACROSS THE REST OF NRN ME MON MORN INTO ERLY AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...SOME PTNS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FA MAY NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH IN THE RNFL BEFORE A COLD FRONT DRIES THE REGION OUT BY LATER MON AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE VERY MILD TNGT IN SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN COOLER ON MON...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE AN EARLIER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERIOD BEGINNING WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WITH WEST TO NW FLOW TAKING OVER ON THE BACK SIDE OF FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION MINUS THE COAST. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH BRINGING A CHANCE OF A ISOLATED SHOWER TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING DECREASING CLOUDS WITH MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATING DRY AIR BUILDING IN. THIS COUPLED WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS TO GENERALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. A BIT OF RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WITH WIND BECOMING WEST TO SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ONE WORD DESCRIBES THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WOW! UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 590 DCM WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. AT MID WEEK TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST MAINE ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE N APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY LOWERING TO MVFR CLGS FROM THE S LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES ARE HANGING ON TO LOW MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO LOWER OVRNGT TO IFR/LIFR IN BKN-OVC ST FROM S TO N. SHWRS COULD ALSO REDUCE VSBYS TO THE 3 TO 5 NM RANGE ATTMS OVRGNT. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SW TO NE BEHIND A COLD FRONT BEGINNING OVR WRN DOWNEAST PTNS ERLY MON MORN THEN PROGRESSING TO FAR NRN TAF SITES BY ERLY AFTN. SHORT TERM: EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FA. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE WATERS WILL BE BUILDING SWELL FROM A LOW MOVG NE FROM OFF THE MID ATLC STATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY MON MORN. WV HTS SHOULD MAX OUT DURG MON AFTN BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING AFTWRDS. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE ISSUED AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS FOR ALL OF MZS BEGINNING 12Z MON...CONTG AT LEAST TIL 12Z TUE. WE ARE A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT HI SURF CONDITIONS IN THE MON AFTN TM FRAME AS OPEN OCEAN WV HTS REACH CLOSE TO 10 FT...BUT THE FACT THAT THE SWELL PD IS ARND 10 SEC RATHER THAN 15 SEC...AND THE PD OF HIGHEST WVS ONLY LAST FOR ABOUT 6 HRS OFF OF HIGH TIDE...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGH SURF HDLNS ATTM. OTHERWISE...VSBYS REDUCED BY MARINE FOG AND GENERAL RNFL...SPCLY LATER TNGT OVR MZ050 IS A SECONDARY CONCERN. SHORT TERM: SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 7 FT DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELL COMING FROM A SUBTROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE MOVING NE TONIGHT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT/VJN SHORT TERM...JORDAN LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN/JORDAN MARINE...HEWITT/VJN/JORDAN

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