Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 192200 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 600 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 6 PM UPDATE...ADDED A FEW SPRINKLES IN EASTERN AREAS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR. STILL EXPECTING SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES. WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING. SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORTON/BLOOMER SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA MARINE...NORTON/DUDA

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.