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030
FXUS61 KCAR 160929
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
529 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A frontal boundary will slowly move south of the region later
today through tonight. Unsettled conditions, with daily shower
chances, will then persist through the weekend into early next
week
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A stalled frontal boundary continues to sit over the area and
slowly wash out. A mid-level shortwave moving through is
producing showers and some steadier rain north of the Katahdin
region. This activity will diminish later this morning as the
shortwave moves east.

However, with the front nearby, afternoon showers will once
again be a possibility, mainly north of Bangor. The greatest
chance will be from about the Millinocket area into southeastern
Aroostook County. Instability will be lower than yesterday, so
thunderstorms are not expected. Highs today will be in the upper
60s north of Katahdin. Expect lower to mid 70s to the south,
with cooler temperatures at the coast.

Shower activity will mostly come to an end after sunset with the
loss of daytime heating. That said, an isolated shower will
still be possible in the far north. Some fog will be possible
late, mainly Downeast and into the Bangor region. Lows tonight
will be in the 50s, except upper 40s at the coast and near
Estcourt Station.
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.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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A surface trof and approaching upper level disturbance along
with diurnal heating will support a chance of showers north,
slight chance Downeast, Friday. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy
skies north with partly sunny skies Downeast. The approaching
upper level disturbance will help support a chance of showers
across northern areas Friday night. However, with the loss of
diurnal hearing, shower coverage will decrease. Otherwise,
expect mostly cloudy skies across the forecast area Friday
night. The upper level disturbance begins to cross the region
Saturday. At the surface, high pressure centered near Labrador
will ridge back across Downeast areas. The upper level
disturbance will support a chance of showers across mostly
northern/central areas. With surface ridging, expect mostly
cloudy/partly sunny skies Downeast. With the loss of diurnal
heating and the upper disturbance exiting, expect decreasing
shower chances across northern areas Saturday night along with
mostly/partly cloudy skies. Mostly/partly cloudy skies are
expected Downeast. Above normal level temperatures are expected
Friday/Saturday.
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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A disturbance moving south in advance of an approaching upper
ridge could bring a slight chance of showers to northern areas
Sunday. Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies across the
forecast area with surface ridging persisting. The surface
ridge begins to move southeast Monday. At the same time, a
disturbance will flatten the upper ridge. The disturbance could
bring a slight chance/chance of showers to mostly northern
areas Monday. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies across the
region Monday. Skies will remain partly cloudy Tuesday. However,
another possible upper level disturbance could also bring a
slight chance/chance of showers to mostly northern areas. Low
pressure tracking west of the region will draw a cold front
toward the forecast area later Wednesday. Expect partly sunny
skies along with a slight chance/chance of afternoon showers.
Temperatures will remain at above normal levels Sunday through
Wednesday.
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.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM:
Northern Terminals: MVFR/IFR this morning with low clouds and
SHRA. Mainly MVFR this afternoon with VCSH. A period of VFR
possible this evening, before trending to MVFR/IFR late tonight.
Light N-NE winds today and tonight.

Southern Terminals: A period of IFR or lower possible at Coastal
terminals 09z-12z with BCFG. Otherwise, VFR today through this
evening. A period of IFR or lower possible again tonight with
BCFG, especially at coastal terminals. Light S winds today,
becoming E-NE tonight.

SHORT TERM:

Friday...Variable conditions with any patchy fog early.
Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers north, slight chance
Downeast. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming
southeast/south.

Friday night...VFR/MVFR. A slight chance to chance of showers
north. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers, mostly north.
Southeast/east winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday night...VFR/MVFR. A slight chance/chance of showers
north. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance to chance of showers
north. VFR Downeast. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday night...VFR/MVFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Monday...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of showers north. VFR
Downeast. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.
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.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds and wave heights remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels today and tonight. Fog will reduce visibility at
times over the waters as warm, humid air moves over the colder
waters.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Friday
through Saturday night. Patchy/areas of fog Friday into
Saturday.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Clark
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Clark/Norcross
Marine...Clark/Norcross