Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 170437 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1237 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will stall over the area this evening into Sunday. The front will lift back north in the form of a warm front Sunday night into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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1230 AM Update: Minor if any chgs to the prev fcst msly in regard to fcst hrly temps and cld cvr based on trends seen in latest sfc obs and sat imagery. Orgnl Disc: The cold front remains in Aroostook County and will not make it any further south than a line from central Piscataquis County towards northern Washington County by late tonight. There will be no precipitation with the front. The high humidity and clear skies south of the front will create a very favorable environment for fog formation again and it could be dense. The threat of fog towards the frontal boundary and northward will be less due to cloud cover and have not specified any fog where the clouds are expected this evening. North of the front, lows tonight will be mostly in the low to mid 50s. On the south side of the front, lows will be in the upper 50s to near 60F and may even be a bit higher. For Sunday, the cold front retreats northward as a warm front. The warm and very humid air to the south and the formation of a very strong upper level ridge over the area Sunday will strengthen the warm frontal boundary. This means a lot of cloud cover in northern zones through the day and the cloud cover will limit highs to the low to mid 70s versus readings closer to 80F further south. It should be the fifth straight day over 80F in Bangor...and would be higher if not for the time it`ll take to burn off the fog. It will be quite humid across the entire area with dew points in the lower to mid 60s everywhere by midday. Have specified a slight chance of showers in northern zones for Sunday afternoon. There is some decent instability aloft, but it seems any convection will have to overcome a cap between H850 and H700. If the cap is overcome, then thunderstorms would be possible.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A nearly stationary front across northern Maine will begin to lift back north in the form of a warm front later Sunday night into Monday, with high pressure ridged across Downeast areas. Mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of showers are expected across northern areas Sunday night, with partly/mostly cloudy skies across the remainder of the region. Areas of fog will also occur Sunday night. The warm front will lift north of Maine Monday, with high pressure still ridged Downeast. Expect mostly cloudy skies with still a chance of showers across northern areas Monday, with partly/mostly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of showers across the remainder of the region. Moisture from Hurricane Jose will expand north across the region Monday night into Tuesday. Shower chances will increase Downeast Monday night with a chance of showers across the remainder of the region. Rain chances will increase Downeast Tuesday, with a chance of rain across northern areas. Temperatures will be at near normal, to slightly above normal, levels Monday/Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The extended models are in good agreement at the start of the period. A cold frontal boundary will be extended across Quebec just north of Maine. Hurricane Jose will be moving northeast of NJ south of Cape Cod with feeder bands extending north into coastal Maine. Wednesday morning Jose moves north southeast of Cape Cod. The feeder band extends into central Maine. Wednesday evening Jose is expected to turn east and track across the southern Gulf of Maine. Minor timing difference between the two main models. The GFS moves it east 100 miles south southeast of SW Nova Scotia. ECMWF has it about 150 south of Bar Harbor. Thursday morning both models moves it well east of our area. Higher pressure will build into the area Wednesday night and will remain across the area through Saturday evening. The GFS maintains the ridge through the end of the period. The ECMWF moves a front down from Canada into northern Maine at the end of the period. Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models, however the solution leans more towards the GFS solution. Used NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor tool. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR will quickly deteriorate to IFR/VLIFR at BHB and BGR within the next 1-3 hrs. Across the north cigs will decrease to MVFR and eventually IFR toward 09z at FVE, CAR and PQI with HUL seeing IFR earlier. Cigs will rise to VFR across the south as fog and low stratus burns off around 18z. Further north expect most terminals to rmn MVFR before rising very late in TAF valid time. SHORT TERM: Variable conditions will occur with fog Sunday night into early Monday. Occasional MVFR conditions are then possible across northern areas later Monday. Generally expect MVFR to LIFR conditions across the region Monday night into Tuesday. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across northern areas Wednesday, with MVFR/IFR conditions Downeast. VFR conditions are expected across the region Thursday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Fog, light winds and long period south swell near 3-4 feet will continue through Sunday. SHORT TERM: Winds are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels Sunday night through Tuesday. Swells from Hurricane Jose will bring building seas later Monday into Tuesday with seas reaching small craft advisory levels. Visibilities will be reduced in fog Sunday night into Monday, then in rain and fog Monday night into Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Near Term...Farrar Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norton Aviation...Farrar/Norcross Marine...Farrar/Norcross

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