000
FXUS61 KCAR 131919
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
319 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND THE COOL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR
OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS IN THE MID 30S OVER
INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCATIONS WILL ALLOW FROST TO FORM INLAND FROM
THE COAST. A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST
LOCATIONS WHERE THE OUTDOOR GROWING SEASON MAY HAVE STARTED FOR
SOME GARDENERS. A FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS AND A MODERATELY COOL DAY ACROSS THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BRING PARTIAL SUNSHINE DURING THE
MIDDAY. SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS MAY BRUSH EASTERN AREAS FROM THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTHEAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY NIGHT
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION WITH THE MARITIMES LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
REGION...THOUGH THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WILL CLIP EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL THEN DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHWEST AREAS. FROST ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED DOWNEAST WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY STARTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND RAIN TOTALS
STILL EXIST. EXPECT AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH THE STEADIER RAIN
TAPERING TO SHOWERS LATE. COULD STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE BASE OF A UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE REGION TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH FOR FRIDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST. THE DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS COMES WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE 06Z GFS BRINGS A BOUNDARY INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT
SLOWER BRING PRECIP IN MONDAY NIGHT. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO
BRINGS THIS SYSTEM INTO THE SUNDAY EVENING. THE LATEST 12Z GFS
ALSO WANTS TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT BRINGS LESS LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. RIGHT NOW
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE WILL BRING SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. WILL LOAD
WITH GMOS AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY LEANING TOWARD PREVIOUS FORECAST
TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
FOR FRIDAY WITH SITES GOING VFR FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5
FT OVERNIGHT REQUIRING AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 5 FT TUESDAY AND WIND WILL BE LIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN/FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS THURSDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ011-
     015>017-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS