Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 140824 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 424 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST TO EAST THROUGH QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THAN YSTDY...SPCLY OVR THE NRN HLF OF THE FA SHOULD ALLOW HI TEMPS TO RECOVER A FEW DEG F MORE THIS AFTN THAN YSTDY AFTN. BY AFTN...THE WRN EDGE OF THE HI/MID CLD SHIELD WILL LIKELY STRADDLE THE ERN 3RD TO HLF OF THE FA FROM NEAR KFVE TO KBHB A INTENSIFYING LOW PRES TRACKS NNE FROM THE OPEN ATLC S OF NOVA SCOTIA INTO THE ERN CAN MARITIMES. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY KEEP THE WRN EXTENT OF HI/MID CLDNSS OVR ERN ME JUST W OF THE ME/NB BORDER INTO THE OVRNGT HRS BEFORE RETREATING E TOWARD THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. FOR THIS REASON...ALONG WITH LGT NW WINDS OVR THE ERN HLF OF THE FA ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER PRES GRAD OF THIS LOW...WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW FAR E TOWARD THE NB BORDER THE FROST POTENTIAL AND HDLNS WILL BE NEEDED OVR CNTRL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA. FURTHER W...PARTICULARLY THE WRN VLYS...WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLR AND WINDS LGT AND VARIABLE NEARER THE SFC RIDGE AXIS...CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOW TEMPS THERE XPCTD TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S WITH WDSPRD FROST ACROSS COLDEST VLY AREAS. ALL FROST SHOULD RAPIDLY MELT/SUBLIMATE SHORTLY AFT SUNRISE WED UNDER THE STRONG MID MAY SUN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS A FAST-MOVING OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY WITH GUSTS REACHING 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE OCCLUSION WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A QUARTER INCH. CONDITIONS WILL MOISTEN UP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WILL FOLLOW THE SURFACE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED...MOSTLY IN NORTHERN ZONES NORTH OF HOULTON. UPGRADED POPS TO LIKELY IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK. THE KEY WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS...OVER NORTHERN AROOSTOOK OR NORTH OF THE STATE AS THE GFS SUGGESTS. AM LEANING TOWARD THE SOLUTION WHERE THE LOW TRACKS OVER NORTHERN AROOSTOOK WITH MORE CONTINUOUS SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS POINT. TOWARDS BANGOR...MIXING IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH GREATER WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS RATHER THAN SHOWERS BEING THE BIGGEST IMPACT. GUSTS COULD REACH 35 T0 40 MPH. HIGHS NORTH WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...BUT TOWARDS BANGOR MID TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY EVENING WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. SUFFICIENT H850 MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IT WILL NOT BE AS BREEZY WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING BUT SHOULD BE FAR LESS THAN THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...BUT COULD DIP LOWER IF WINDS DECREASE MORE THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F NORTH AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND PRODUCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW. WILL GO WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THICKENING CLOUDS WITH AN IMPULSE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING COOLER MARITIME OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS AND A SERIES OF IMPULSES RIDE OVER AN UPPER RIDGE TOWARDS NORTHERN MAINE.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR TDY THRU TNGT. SHORT TERM: VFR WEDNESDAY...IFR DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL LIFT TO VFR FOR BGR AND BHB DURING THURSDAY...BUT MVFR TEMPO IFR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION NORTH OF HUL DURING THURSDAY. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS MAY REACH OVER 35 KTS AROUND BGR AND BHB THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING CONDITION BY LATER THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: GIVEN A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WHEN WV HTS WILL FALL BLO 5 FT OVR THE OUTER MZS THIS MORN...WE HAVE OPTD TO XTND THE SCA FOR HAZ SEAS A COUPLE MORE HRS TIL 10 AM...BUT THE TREND SHOULD CONT DOWNWARD...AND WE ENVISION NO HDLNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THRU TNGT. WE USED WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS FOR THE NEAR TERM...BEEFED UP A FOOT OR SO OVR OUTER MZS TO MATCH LATEST BUOY OBS TIL MID MORN...THEN MERGED WITH UNMODIFIED GUIDANCE BY AFTN. SHORT TERM: EXPECT A GENERAL SCA WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WAVE HTS OVER 5 FT ON THURSDAY MAY REQUIRE THE SCA CONTINUE FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MEZ011- 015>017-031-032. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-051.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...VJN/MCW MARINE...VJN/MCW

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