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000
FXUS61 KCAR 131941
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
341 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL TRACK
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY FROM QUEBEC AND
CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM
HUDSON BAY WILL THEN APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A BAND OF SEMI-OPAQUE HI CLDS HAVE SLOWED THE RISE OF TEMPS ACROSS
NRN PTNS OF THE FA ERLY THIS AFTN...BUT THIS BAND IS NOW LIFTING N
OF THE REGION...SO WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL RISES OF 1 TO 3 DEG F BY
5 PM BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING COMMENCES. NEVER-THE-LESS...WE DID
HAVE TO LOWER HI TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...
SO WE CAN IMPROVE THE HRLY TREND OF FCST TEMPS TO OVRNGT LOWS
POSTED BETWEEN 4 AND 5 AM FRI.

OTHERWISE...WE MADE LITTLE CHG TO THE FCST OF INCREASING CLDNSS
ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA TNGT...AND THE CHC OF RN FOR
THE DOWNEAST COASTAL ZONES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. OF ALL
THE MODELS...THE 12Z OPNL GFS AND ITS ESMN AND THE SREF ARE
FURTHEST N SHOWING TOTAL MEASURABLE QPF UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH REACHING COASTAL DOWNEAST MAINE LATE TNGT THRU MIDDAY FRI
BEFORE THE RN MOVES E INTO THE MARITIMES FRI AFTN. MOST OF THE
OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW ALL QPF TO REMAIN OFFSHORE FROM LATE
TNGT THRU FRI. OUR FCST...WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD
OVR THE LAST TWO UPPER AIR MODEL RUNS...STRADDLES BOTH MODEL
CAMPS.

LASTLY...A WEAK S/WV WITH UPPER LVL DVRGNT FLOW COULD BRING A
CHC OF SHWRS TO NRN PTNS...PARTICULARLY NW PTNS OF THE FA BY LATE
AFTN. LIMITED AFTN SBCAPE OF 200 TO 400 J/KG MAY SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS
WITH THESE SHWRS...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE XCPTN RATHER THAN
THE RULE. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW CVRG OF SHWRS WITH THIS FEATURE...
WE KEPT FRI 18-24Z STREAM BASIN QPF TOTALS BLO A TENTH OF AN INCH...
ALTHOUGH LCLZD HEAVIER QPF IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVIER SHWR OR TSTM.

OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE COOLEST OVR NRN VLYS WHERE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAREST LONGEST OVRNGT AND WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VRBL.
HI TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEG WARMER ACROSS THE N FRI AFTN...AND ABOUT
THE SAME DOWNEAST WHERE MORN CLDNSS AND ANY LEFT OVR SHWRS WILL
RESULT IN A DELAY OF HTG...WHICH SHOULD BE PARTIALLY MADE UP
DURG THE AFTN HRS WHEN MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE IS XPCTD.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY TO
OUR WEST THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN
CANADA. A FAIRLY POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW
LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, SO EXPECT ONLY SOME
CLOUDS FROM THIS UPPER WAVE, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. HOWEVER,
CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH MAINE WOODS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE
MOST PART, THOUGH, THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 IN THE ST JOHN VALLEY TO THE MID 70S
ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST.

FOR SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST, PLACING THE
NORTHEAST CONUS IN FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL HINTING THAT A WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS
WEST-TO-EAST FLOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY, ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER IN EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT, MOST OF THE
FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE
CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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STILL MODEL DIVERGENCE FOR THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OUT
THE GREAT LAKES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THE 06Z GFS BRINGS THE LOW
PRESSURE IN LATER ON MONDAY AND THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER
BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
DIFFERENCE IS THE 06Z GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
REGION INTO WEDNESDAY THEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY PROGRESSES
EAST. THE ALTERNATE IS THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF BRINGING IN HIGH PRESSURE BY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF ALSO HINTS
AT ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE LATEST 12Z GFS IS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF IN THAT IS BRINGS A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY. ALSO BRINGS ANOTHER STRONGER LOW
ALONG THE MAINE COAST LINE FOR LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE 00Z ECMWF HINTS AT THIS BUT IS SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH. THE
12Z CMC STILL PAINTING A DOUBLE BARREL LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION FOR TUESDAY. CONSIDERING ALL THE MODEL DIVERGENCE WILL TRY
TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY AND GENERALLY STICK WITH THE 30 TO 50 POP
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY STAY NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: WE XPCT VFR TNGT THRU FRI...ALTHOUGH CLGS MAY LOWER TO
LOW VFR AT KBGR AND SPCLY KBHB SAT MORN...SPCLY IF LGT RN IS ABLE
TO REACH THIS FAR N DURG THIS TM. LOWER VFR CLGS AND PERHAPS EVEN
BRIEF MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE IN A BRIEF SHWR LATER FRI AFTN FROM
KPQI NWRD.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS RAIN SHOWERS COME TO AN END. VFR WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH RAIN MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: WINDS AND WVS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO JUST BLO SCA
CRITERIA FRI AS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE MID ATLC LOW PRES
TRAVERSES OVR THE WATERS AS THE LOW TRACKS ENE S OF THE GULF
OF ME AND JUST S OF NOVA SCOTIA. GIVEN TYPICAL UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
PD OF SCA NE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS WV HTS REACHING 5+ FT OVR
OUR OUTER MZS SAT MORN INTO MIDDAY...BUT ONLY THE OPNL 12Z GFS IS
IMPLYING THIS ATTM... WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL SUITE A LITTLE
FURTHER S WITH THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED GRADIENT. BOTH WINDS AND
WVS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE DURG THE AFTN HRS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
ALG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CAN MARITIMES.

SHORT TERM: A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...VJN/HASTINGS