Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 270406 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1206 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ALONG WITH THE WARMER WEATHER WILL COME THE CHANCE OF SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 1201 AM UPDATE: HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... WIND AND DEW POINT. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A SHOWER. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DOWN EAST COAST AS AN AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE MOVES IN. THE LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COME THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPR LOW WL BE DROPPING SOUTH FM HUDSON BAY AT THE START OF THE PD. THIS WL FLING S/WVS AT CWA MON NGT AND KEEP CHC SHOWERS GOING DRG MOST OF THE OVRNGT. SIGNIFICANT LOW-LVL MOISTURE WL BCM TRAPPED UNDER STRONG INVERION AS WELL AND HV WORDED MOST AREAS AS EITHER CHC SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE THRU 12Z TUE. SRLY SFC FLOW AHD OF APPCHG SFC TROF WL LKLY RETURN MARINE LYR TO COASTAL ZONES AFT 04Z TUE WITH AREAS OF FOG DVLPNG ONCE AGAIN. SFC FRONT WL BE DROPPING THRU QUEBEC ON TUE WITH SRLY WINDS DRAWING IN WARM AND HUMID AIR. MAX TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE TO ARND SEASONAL NORMS WITH DWPTS IN THE M60S ACRS DOWNEAST AND L60S OVR THE FAR NORTH. MORNING HRS WL START OFF FOGGY ON THE COAST WITH MOCLDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH SUN DRG THE DAY TO AID IN DESTABILIZATION. WITH BNDRY SLIPPING SOUTH THRU AREA ALONG WITH UPR LOW DVG DOWN TWD CANADIAN MARITIMES, CHCS EXISTS FOR SHRA/TSRA PRETTY MUCH AT ANY POINT AFT 18Z. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30KTS ALONG WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING FM 500-800 J/KG POINT TO AN ISOLD SVR THREAT DEPENDING ON TIMING, WHICH HAS YET TO BE ESTABLISHED AS SUBSEQUENT MODELS KEEP SPEEDING UP TIMING. CDFNT MVS THRU TUE NGT WITH CHC SHOWERS CONTG AHD OF BNDRY. FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE WL BE 1015MB SFC HIGH LEADING TO MAINLY DRY WX DRG THE DAY AND COOLER MAXES COMPARED TO TUE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF NICE WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE AREA. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THU AND SPREAD SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THU AM INTO THU NIGHT. CHC TO LKLY POPS INTRODUCED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. SOME CLEARING IS LIKELY FRI AM, BUT AS UPPER TROF LAGS OVER ERN CANADA SOME SHWRS MAY STICK AROUND THRU FRI, ESPECIALLY NRN AREAS. SFC RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FRI PM, BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN SLATED TO PASS THRU ON SAT. ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, AS WELL, WITH NO LONG STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER APPARENT. OVERALL, MODELS WERE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF RAIN THRU THE LONG TERM, SO NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM SUPERBLEND WERE MADE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE COMMON DOWN EAST...COOLER AT THE COAST, WITH MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN NRN MAINE. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS IFR AND LIFR TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED DOWNEAST. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE OF SOME SCT TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NRN AND CTRL AREAS. SHORT TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MON NGT AND TUE AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED. IFR STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR ON WED. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. VSBY WILL BE 1 NM OR LESS AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE

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