Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 030540 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1240 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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UPDATE 0010 EST: HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO EXTEND SNOW SHOWERS A FEW MORE HOURS. ALSO UPDATED WINDS... TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS THIS EVENING AND THEN MUCH COLDER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE ARCTIC FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SE ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON PER THE RADAR. ANOTHER ROUND SETTING UP AND WILL DIVE SE W/THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM AND RAP MODEL DOING WELL W/THE PLACEMENT OF THE SNOW MATCHING UP W/THE RADAR TRENDS. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING ATTM ESPECIALLY FROM 850-700MBS(7.0 C/KM). THIS COMBINED W/DECENT SHEAR AT 0-3KM OF 35 KTS AND FORECAST CAPE 80+ JOULES WILL BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME MORE SQUALLS GOING. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUPPORTED THE MODEL SOUNDINGS W/DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH 700MBS. THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL RESIDE FROM THE ST. JOHN VALLEY DOWN THROUGH CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE DOWN INTO HOULTON. ANOTHER AREA OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS IS FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MAINE INCLUDING THE MILLINOCKET-PATTEN AREA ALONG ROUTE 11 AND PORTIONS OF I-95. BRIEF HEAVY SNOW BURSTS W/WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL LEAD TO BRIEF WHITEOUTS AND VSBY 1/4 OF A MILE OR LESS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR AND THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP AT 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD W/GUSTS AT LEAST 30 MPH. THESE WINDS COMBINED W/THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING IN WILL LEAD TO SOME DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES REMAIN UP FOR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ATTM, IT LOOKS LIKE THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST WILL SEE WIND CHILLS STAY ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -20F. FOR TUESDAY, HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION W/DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR REGION. THIS IS EXPLAINED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOOKING FOR ANOTHER SNOW EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA SOUTH OF THE PARENT LOW PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THINK THAT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF AREAS, THIS WILL BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT, PERHAPS ENDING AS JUST A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE COAST. LOOKING FOR ABOUT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, WE ARE LOOKING FOR A WARM DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE, AND EVEN IN THE LOW 40S DOWNEAST. THE WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED, HOWEVER, AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT NOTHING MAJOR. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LOOK FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE DO NOT FORESEE ANY MAJOR STORMS, BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW WEAK ONES BEYOND FRIDAY AFTER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS. TOO MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT TO TIME THE WEAK SYSTEMS THIS FAR OUT. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE MOST PART FOR ALL TERMINALS INTO TUE. BRIEF IFR IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT AS A NW SFC WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH TUE MORNING. SHORT TERM: IFR OR WORSE AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW. PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY VFR, THOUGH MVFR COULD LINGER IN THE NORTH ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: GALES ARE OCCURRING NOW AS THE COLD AIR POURS OUT OVER THE WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO SCA LEVELS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SCA LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS HIGH PRES RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT OVERNIGHT WILL SUBSIDE TUE. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. SHORT TERM: EXPECT PROLONGED SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST AS A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 9 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. && .CLIMATE... THE METEOROLOGICAL WINTER WHICH IS THE 3 MONTH PERIOD OF DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY HAD AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 16.8 DEGREES AT BANGOR. IT WAS THE COLDEST SINCE THE WINTER OF 2002-03. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001>004. MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...CB/MIGNONE

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