Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 230814 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 414 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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PERIODS OF RAIN TO CONTINUE THIS TERM WITH SOME OF IT HEAVY. THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRES SPINNING OFF NJ COAST W/WAVE OF RAIN MOVING WEST FROM THE ATLC BACK ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND REGION. THIS LOW WAS STACKED THROUGH 500MBS PER THE 00Z UA KEEPING THIS LOW PUT FOR NOW. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWED RAINFALL MOVING BACK TOWARD MAINE FROM THE ATLC OCEAN AND NEW BRUNSWICK. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ME DOWN THROUGH NH INTO SOUTHERN VT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS AND CANADIAN GEM HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE HEAVY PRECIP FORM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS W/THE CROWN OF MAINE STAYING PRETTY DRY THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY SAY N OF THE CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE AND HOULTON AREAS. THE DRY AIR AND UPPER RIDGE WINNING OUT ATTM. THE NAM AND CANADIAN GEM WERE DOING QUITE WELL PER THE 06Z ANALYSIS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO PULL BACK ON QPF FOR THIS EVENT INTO TONIGHT GIVEN THE LATEST REPORTS COMING IN W/LESS THAN AN 0.75" OF RAINFALL SO FAR FROM THIS EVENT W/THE EXCEPTION OF EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY(1.25"). THIS IS FAR BELOW WHAT THE EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS ADVERTISING. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NE. GIVEN WAS HAS BEEN REPORTED SO FAR, DECISION WAS TO LOWER THE TOTAL QPF BY AT LEAST 0.50 INCHES. THIS WAS COLLABORATED W/GYX. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AMOUNTS MIGHT NEED TO BE LOWERED EVEN MORE TODAY IF THE LATER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PULL BACK. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING SINCE IT IS UP. SOME MINOR FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL HOLD BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE URBAN(CLOGGED DRAINS W/LEAVES) AND LOWLAND FLOODING. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTIONS BELOW. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE NE WINDS. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12 PM TODAY FOR THE COAST. WINDS ATTM ARE GUSTING TO 30 MPH WITH SOME SITES OVER THE OUTER ISLAND HITTING 35+ MPH. ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONGER GUSTS IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY W/THE WAVES OF HEAVIER RAIN. SO, GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY OVER THE OUTER ISLANDS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MID TO UPPER 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE DURING FRIDAY. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FRIDAY MORNING TO TAPER TO SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ON FRIDAY TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WITH LESSOR AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND IS REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. SATURDAY WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY BETWEEN THE LOW EXITING THROUGH THE MARITIMES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 5S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S DOWNEAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST OF TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS W/THE EXCEPTION FOR KHUL(MVFR) THIS MORNING. KBGR AND KBHB AT IFR. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT. KHUL IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR W/TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. KBGR AND KBHB ARE FORECAST TO STAY AT IFR INTO TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR FRIDAY IN LINGERING RAIN THEN IMPROVING TO VFR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MVFR IN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. VFR MONDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON W/ANOTHER SURGE OF GUSTS TO 40 KTS LATER THIS MORNING. BUOYS ATTM ARE SEEING GUSTS CLOSE TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AS THE LLVL JET LIFTS TO THE NE. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 12-14 FT ATTM AND DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT RIGHT THERE. SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST W/12-14 FT DROPPING TO 7 TO 10 FT TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. 2-4 INCHES LOOKS TO BE A BETTER FIT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, RAINFALL TOTALS THAT HAVE COME OVER THE LAST 24-30 HRS HAVE BEEN UNDER WHAT THE GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING. MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL SHOW SOME RISES, BUT WILL STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE W/THE EXPECTED RAINFALL. SMALL STREAMS COULD REACH BANKFULL. THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL BE POOR DRAINAGE DUE TO LEAVES CLOGGING STORM DRAINS AND LOWLAND FLOODING.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MEZ029-030. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA HYDROLOGY...HEWITT

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