Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 220104 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 804 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will approach from the west overnight. The front will move across the area Wednesday while low pressure lifts north along the front. The cold front will exit across the maritimes Wednesday night. High pressure will cross the region Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Update... A cold front will approach from the west overnight while low pressure intensifies along the Carolina coast. Generally expect partly cloudy skies across northern areas early tonight, with mostly clear skies across the remainder of the forecast area. Cloud cover will then increase across the entire region later tonight. Overnight low temperatures will generally range from the mid 20s to around 30 north, to the lower to mid 30s interior Downeast with around 40 to the lower 40s along the Downeast coast. Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions, along with overnight temperatures, cloud cover and to slow the arrival of precipitation overnight. Previous Discussion... The cold front will push into the area on Wednesday bringing some showers. A wave of low pressure tracking north along the front will bring a period of steadier rain Downeast beginning around mid morning and continuing into early Wednesday evening. Most of the rain will fall over Washington county where over an inch is likely. Lighter rain across the north may briefly turn into a bit of snow before ending early Wednesday evening. Any accumulations should be less than a half inch. The front will push east into the Maritimes Wednesday night carrying the low east with it and skies will clear. Northwest winds will carry cold air back into the area overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Expect partly sunny conditions Thursday Morning, however as a cold front approaches from the west clouds will slowly over- spread the region. Expect cloudy skies Thursday Night into Friday Morning as the cold front moves through the State. Some snow showers are possible in western and northern areas along with higher terrain as the front moves through. Clearing is then expected later in the Morning Friday as the front moves off- shore and high pressure builds in from the west. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will be moving off the East Coast Friday Night while a cold front approaches the region from the west. Over the weekend the cold front will move through the region resulting in showers and snow showers. Intensifying low pressure is also expected to pass just to the east of the Gulf of Maine Sunday. High pressure will then pass to the south of the area Monday. A weak cold front is then expected to pass through the region Tuesday. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the region tonight. Low level wind shear could also be a concern early tonight. Conditions will lower to IFR/LIFR levels Downeast Wednesday morning through early afternoon then persist through the remainder of the afternoon. IFR/LIFR conditions will develop across northern areas Wednesday afternoon. IFR/LIFR conditions are expected across the entire region early Wednesday night, then improve to VFR levels overnight. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected early Thursday. MVFR conditions possible early Friday then VFR conditions for the remainder of the day. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible Saturday and Sunday.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for much of the waters, with the exception of the intracoastal waters, tonight through Wednesday night. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect across the intracoastal waters through the early morning hours, which might need to be extended into Wednesday. Visibilities will be reduced in rain Wednesday. SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM for sustained winds through Friday Afternoon then transition to the Super blend winds. For Waves: The primary wave system through this period will be long period incoming southeasterly swell 4-6 feet/10 seconds). This wave group is expected to subside during the day Friday. A secondary off-shore wind wave system will be present Thursday and will become southwesterly Friday. Will use the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) through Friday then transition to the Wave Watch III Blend.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ052. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ050-051.
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&& $$ Near Term...Norcross/Bloomer Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...Norcross/Mignone Marine...Norcross/Mignone

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