Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 111944 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 344 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT BUILD INTO SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TERM W/GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AS SEEN ON THE SATELLITE WV IMAGERY. THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. THE LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIRMASS TO BE DRYING OUT THROUGH THE COLUMN. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER LAKE ONTARIO AS OF 2 PM WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE, LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES COUPLED W/DEWPOINTS DROPPING BACK THROUGH THE 40S WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT. WE ARE TALKING MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE INCLUDING DOWNEAST. DECIDED NOT TO MENTION THE FOG OVERNIGHT AS BLYR HAS BEEN DRYING OUT THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL WITH THE LATER GUIDANCE. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AND WARMER W/READINGS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 80S. THERE WILL BE A WSW BREEZE KICKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. A SSW WIND ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR INTO THIS AREA BY THE AFTERNOON CAPPING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR POPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF. THE SKY GRIDS FROM THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF AND CMCREG. FOR WIND USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL. TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT THREE HOURLY FROM THE SUPER BLEND. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FROM THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL AND THE MINIMUM FROM THE SUPER BLEND. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... EXPECT SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT COULD POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY RESULTING IN SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO TUE SAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND FOR ALL GRIDS... AND WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SKY COVER. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHORT TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KTS OR SO W/WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 3 FT AT BEST W/A SWELL COMPONENT DEVELOPING. SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE CONSENSUS RAW FOR SUSTAINED WIND GRIDS...BUT WILL REDUCE SPEED BY 20 PERCENT DUE TO EXPECTED BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. FOR WAVES: SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND INCREASES IN DISTANCE TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THEN CONTINUES UNTIL BROKEN UP BY A WIND SHIFT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT BOUNDARY CONDITIONS TO BE FACTOR WITH THIS FETCH ACROSS GULF OF MAINE...HOWEVER WITH HE FETCH EXTENDING ACROSS WARMER WATER TO SOUTH THINK IT IS POSSIBLE FOR WAVES 7+ FEET/8-9 SECONDS BY LATER TUESDAY. HAVE USED THE WNA/4. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE

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