Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 041922 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 322 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM QUEBEC TONIGHT... THEN WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY...WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THEN MOVES EAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE DRY JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER, THE LATEST HRRR/RAP ARE INDICATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MAINE AND MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS TOWARD EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THESE AREAS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES FOR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THE MAIN CHANCES FOR RAIN REALLY ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSE TO OUR WESTERN BORDER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. THE FRONT MAKES ITS PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS. SBCAPES ARE PROGGED TO REACH INTO THE 400-800 J/KG RANGE, ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK SHEAR MEANS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE RUN OF THE MILL. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST AND ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND 80 FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SUN EVE SHOULD BEGIN WITH THE RETREAT OF ANY REMAINING SHWRS OVR WRN PTNS OF OUR FA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF MOVES WELL E OF THE REGION THRU THE ERN MARITIMES. OTHERWISE... CLRG SKIES ARE XPCTD OVR THE FA OVRNGT SUN WITH LGT WINDS AND NEAR SEASONAL LOW TEMPS AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS FROM THE W. WITH SFC HI PRES ANCHORING OVR THE NRN MID ATLC STATES AND ADJACENT PTNS OF THE ATLC OCEAN ON MON AS A MDTLY STRONG UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVR NRN NEW ENG...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY WITH LIGHT WSW WINDS. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND STRONGLY REACHING HIGHS MON AFTN SIG ABV 80 DEG F OVR ALL XCPT IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST PTNS OF THE FA...THE WARMEST SINCE LATE MAY. MON EVE WILL BE FAIR AND SUMMERLIKE WITH RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS AND A LGT BREEZE. TUE WILL BEGIN MSLY SUNNY...THEN CLDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WSW LATER IN THE DAY AS A LEAD S/WV FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN BEGIN TO APCH...BRINGING WITH IT INCREASING HUMIDITY AS SSW WINDS INCREASE AND LATE AFTN SCT SHWRS/ TSTMS TO MSLY THE NW THIRD OF THE FA. THE ARRIVAL TMG OF SHWRS/TSTMS TO THE NW WAS BASED ON SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH WE DID NOTE THAT THE 12Z DTMNSTC GFS WAS SLOWER THAN ITS PREV RUNS. HI TEMPS TUE AFTN WILL REMAIN VERY WARM ACROSS THE N AND W WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...BUT WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE COOLER OVR DOWNEAST AREAS WITH GRADIENT SSW WINDS ALLOWING MARINE COOLED AIR TO WORK FURTHER INLAND THAN MON AFTN.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS PROGRESSIVE... THEREFORE QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...EXCEPT NEAR STRONGER STORMS. A WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY, WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU TUE.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED OVR OUR WATERS. WVS BEGIN AT 3 TO 5 FT OVR THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT WITH LEFT OVR SWELL THEN DIMINISH MON AND MON EVE. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SOME TO 10 TO 20 KT AND 2 TO 4 FT RESPECTIVELY BY TUE AFTN WITH A RETURN FLOW SW WIND...BUT STILL BLO MIN SCA CRITERIA BASED ON LATEST WIND AND WV MODEL GUIDANCE.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN

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