Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 310753 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 353 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will cross the region late today and tonight. An upper level low will work across the area Thursday into Friday keeping the weather unsettled. High pressure builds across the area this weekend with dry weather and moderating temperatures.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Current radar reflectivity shows scattered showers moving across portions of northern and downeast Maine early this morning, in association with lead short wave, in advance of an approaching upper trof from Quebec. QPF amounts through the pre-dawn hours will be light and generally less than a tenth of an inch. Clouds will hold temperatures in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees through sunrise. The upper low will move east through central Quebec today while a cold front slowly approaches from the west. Once again expect a few showers to develop this afternoon as moisture increases in advance of the approaching front. The NAM continues to be the most robust with regard to its sfc based CAPE forecast(and looks overdone) compared to the much more conservative GFS. SREF surface based Cape forecast is also not overly impressive. Although an isolated storm cannot be ruled out today, the threat of any widespread convection looks minimal at best, therefore will only mention isolated thunder today. High temperatures will range from the mid to upper 70s across the region, but it will be cooler near the coast. Expect mainly cloudy skies across the region tonight along with the chance for a few showers, mainly across downeast areas. Patchy fog can also be expected. Lows tonight will range from the mid to upper 50s north and low 60s downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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An upper trough in Quebec at 12Z Thu will move south and is expected to be in the Gulf of Maine by 00z Sat. This will bring unsettled weather to the region. There is enough instability ahead of the upper trough Thu for showers and a few thunderstorms too. Noticed that the NAM appears to be suffering convective feedback with a couple of 3 hour bullseyes with over 2" of rain in parts of northern Maine Thu afternoon and evening. The shower coverage will diminish Fri and the atmosphere turns more stable. Temperatures ahead of the upper trough will be seasonable and will turn cooler Fri with highs in the 60s across much of the CWA with low 70s confined to the interior Down East region.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The holiday weekend is expected to get off to a real nice start Saturday and Sunday as high pressure builds into the region. It will be sunny with comfortable humidity levels. Highs Saturday will range from the upper 60s north to the mid 70s in the Greater Bangor Region. The air mass moderates Sunday with highs forecast to get well into the 70s to near 80 for interior Down East. Tropical depression #9 in the Gulf of Mexico early this morning is the wildcard for Labor Day as the low is expected per the NHC to pass off the Middle Atlantic coast this weekend as a tropical storm. Whether the storm comes close to enough to bring wind or rain to area Monday remains uncertain. Certainly if the low remains far enough south the area will remain under the influence of high pressure and will be dry and warm. We will continue to closely monitor in the coming days.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected today. VFR can be expected tonight, however some patchy fog may result in local MVFR conditions at times. SHORT TERM: MVFR at times in showers Thu into Thu night with mainly VFR Friday. VFR for the weekend.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds/seas should remain below small craft advisory levels through tonight. SHORT TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels into the weekend. Forecast confidence for Monday is low and will depend on the eventual track of td #9, but there will likely need to be at least a small craft advisory for seas and swell.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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A total of 5.89 inches of rain has been observed so far this month at Caribou, which is 2.24 inches above average. 39 hundredths of an inch of rain is needed for the total monthly rainfall to make it into the top ten for August.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...Duda/CB Marine...Duda/CB Climate...CB

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