Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 270510 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 110 AM EDT Sat May 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move east, south of Nova Scotia tonight. High pressure will build across the area on Saturday then slide south of the region on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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1 AM Update... Updated the pops to keep 20% in the a bit longer overnight to account for showers across Washington County. Radar loop showed some light returns across Washington County diminishing as forcing weakens. Sfc analysis showed an inverted trof setting up from low pres se of Nova Scotia. This trof will be the focus for the potential for more light shower activity later on a disturbance rotates back across western NB from the ocean low. Hence the reason for keeping 20% pops in longer. Kept clouds in longer as well as IR satl imagery showed clouds filling back in. The far nw areas will see some partial clearing w/temps dropping back into the upper 30s such as Estcourt Station. The rest of the CWA should remain in the 40s overnight. Previous Discussion... Low pressure just south of Nova Scotia will move east overnight and away from the region. High pressure will build across the region Saturday. Skies are expected to clear from north to south overnight and Saturday morning as the high builds into the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Ridge axis wl be bisecting CWA Sat night shifting south by morning as a cdfnt approaches the state fm the north by 12z Sun. Skies wl slowly cloud up fm north to south with mins in the 40s area-wide. Wk sfc front wl drop into the CWA drg the day on Sun but with very little instability present at the sfc and aloft not expecting thunder at this time. Due to cld cvr, expected temps wl be hard- pressed to 70s in some locations with maxes right arnd seasonal norms in the u60s. Dwpts wl climb into the m/u40s immediately ahd of front, which looks to be cutting acrs the state by 00z Mon. Weak mid- lvl lapse rates exist acrs the entire area as H5 heights wl be rising as upr ridge builds in fm the west, thus just a vry small chc of showers for nrn zones in the aftn and evng. Front wl slowly wash out Sun night and lift back north as sfc low winds up to our west ovr Ontario on Monday. Expect a break in showers Sun night with med range guidance indicating a wv rotating briefly thru the area Mon aftn. This wl lkly lead to a quick shot of showers in warm advection bfr steadier rain mvs in Mon ngt as H5 ridge breaks down. All in all a cool, cloudy and possibly showery Memorial Day on tap. Maxes wl struggle to reach the 60s in most locales with mocldy conds expected. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Closed low wl once again impact ern half of the U.S. with unsettled wx thru the end of the week. A chc of showers each period for the CWA with temps blo normal to start the long term and then moderating to nr normal by next Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR conditions for the most part overnight with conditions improving to VFR Saturday morning. SHORT TERM: VFR expected all terminals Sat night thru Sun before falling to MVFR late Sun aftn across the north and Sun night further south. May see brief IFR restrictions at BGR and BHB Mon morning. Off and on MVFR conditions expected into the middle part of the week. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM for sustained winds. For waves: Currently there the combined sea is made up of a 50/50 blend of two wave systems, a northeasterly wind wave and a longer period southerly swell. Later tonight the southerly swell will become the primary wave system as winds back into the northeast and become off-shore resulting in wind wave subsiding closer to the coast. Will use the Nearshore Wave Prediction System (NWPS) to take advantage of forecaster generated wind forcing. Will extend the SCA into Saturday Morning as the swell system persists due to the long generating fetch area. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through most of the week as an upper level low will dominate the area. && .CLIMATE... As of 4 PM, a total of 6.07" of rain has been observed at Bangor so far this month, which makes it the 6th wettest May on record at Bangor. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...Hewitt

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