Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 180711 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 311 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WILL DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND WILL DRAG THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...REACHING THE COAST BY MIDDAY AND WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...SUFFICIENT H850 MOISTURE EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELDS THAT WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE...BUT WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. THE WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. WHILE WINDS MAY NOT ALLOW A DEEP RADIATION INVERSION TO FORM...EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH...COLD AIR ADVECTION IS SUFFICIENT TO BRING TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXACT LINE BETWEEN FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS REMAINS IN QUESTION...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE FREEZE WATCH IN PLACE. HAVE ADDED ZONES IN NORTHERN HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES TO THE FREEZE WATCH. COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY FROST...BUT FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE WATCH. THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR THE SEASON HAS ALREADY ENDED IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. AS A RESULT...NO WATCHES OR ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AFTER A FROSTY START ON FRIDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY MORNING AND CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER CLIMO ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE ON SATURDAY WELL AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN MAINE ON SUNDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH MORE REMINISCENT OF MID TO LATE FALL DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BEFORE PROGRESSING EAST...THUS IT MODIFIES BEFORE REACHING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR/BHB TO THE SOUTH AND FVE/CAR TO THE NORTH WILL END BY MID-MORNING. BHB/BGR WILL TRANSITION TO VFR WHILE SITES NORTH OF HUL WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO SHOWERS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS BY 3 HOURS TO 11AM THIS MORNING DUE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM EDOUARD. UPON CANCELLATION OF THIS ADVISORY...A NEW SCA FOR STRONG NW WINDS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AT TIME AS THE FIRST COLD AIR OF THE SEASON SWEEPS OVER THE COMPARATIVELY WARMER WATERS. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ005-006-010-011-015>017-031-032. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCW SHORT TERM...OKULSKI LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...MCW/OKULSKI MARINE...MCW/OKULSKI

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