Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 231058 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 658 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in place over the region today and tonight. A cold front will cross the region Sunday and stall. The front will then lift back north Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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7am update...No changes were made to the forecast at this time. Previous discussion... Low clouds along the coast associated with the remnants of Jose will move out this morning. A powerful ridge of high pressure aloft will generate strong subsidence over the area with temperatures warming to records in the low to mid 80s. An offshore flow will bring the 80s pretty close to the coast, but right along the coast highs will be closer to 70F. A light pressure gradient will promote a sea breeze this afternoon that will reduce temperatures in the coastal zones. Dew points will increase today with the temperatures...reaching the lower 60s by mid-afternoon. Record highs will be possible at numerous locations such as Bangor where the previous record high was just 80F. A warm front will cross tonight and further increase dew points and temperatures aloft...setting the stage for even warmer temperatures Sunday. This warm front will bring clouds to northern zones later in the night and help cap lows near 60F. In the southern half of the forecast area, where there will be no clouds and less boundary layer wind, fog will likely form in the moist air mass. Near the coast, light onshore winds will bring lows into the mid 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will move south across the region Sunday, then stall across Downeast areas or the Gulf of Maine later Sunday into Monday. Expect a chance of showers across mostly northern areas Sunday, with an afternoon thunderstorm also possible. Otherwise, expect generally partly sunny skies north with partly/mostly sunny skies across the remainder of the region, Sunday. Partly cloudy skies are expected across the region Sunday night. The stalled front will lift back north, in the form of a warm front, later Monday into Monday night. Partly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of showers are expected across northern areas Monday, with partly/mostly sunny skies Downeast. Partly cloudy skies are expected across the region Monday night, with still the slight chance of a shower across northern areas. Temperatures will be at much above normal levels Sunday/Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The front could sink back across northern Maine Tuesday, then lift back north again Wednesday. Generally expect partly cloudy skies across the region Tuesday, with the slight chance of showers across mostly northern areas. Mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of showers are expected across the region Wednesday. Uncertainty then exists regarding the timing of a cold front which will cross the region later Wednesday into Thursday. Have kept a chance of showers across the region Wednesday night into Thursday. A more rapid frontal passage would allow improving conditions later Thursday into Friday. A slower frontal passage would keep better chances of showers Thursday into Friday. Temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday will be dependent on the location of the front across northern Maine. Temperatures Thursday/Friday will be dependent on the timing of the cold front. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR cigs are expected into mid-morning at BHB. Otherwise, all terminals will have VFR conditions. Fog will be a threat late tonight for southern terminals such as BGR and BHB. SHORT TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are possible with any showers or thunderstorms across northern areas Sunday. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected across the region Sunday through Tuesday. However, variable conditions could occur with any fog overnight. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the region Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The SCA for Hazardous Seas will remain in place until this evening when south swell decreases below the 5 ft criteria. Seas will continue to diminish tonight. Winds will be light. SHORT TERM: Conditions are expected to be below small craft advisory levels Sunday into Sunday night. Seas could then reach small craft advisory levels Monday into Monday night. Visibilities will be reduced at times in fog Sunday into Sunday night, then again later Monday night. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Extended the High Surf Advisory through this afternoon as long period wave heights are expected to continue above the 5 ft threshold. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...High Surf Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...MCW Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...MCW/Norcross Marine...MCW/Norcross Tides/Coastal Flooding...

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