Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 281639 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1239 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough will remain to our west through mid week. Weather disturbances moving out of the trough will cross the region today. Another area of low pressure may approach late Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1240 pm update... An upper level trof will remain across eastern Canada today. Another in a series of upper level impulses is expected to cross the region this afternoon setting the stage for more scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially across northern and central areas. With low freezing levels, small hail will continue to be a concern and have continued mention in the forecast for today. Highs today will range from the mid to upper 60s across northern and central areas and low 70s down east, except cooler along the immediate coast. Any lingering scattered showers and thunderstorms will quickly wind down by early evening setting the stage for partial clearing overnight. May need to add fog to the forecast overnight but will look a bit closer at this with the afternoon update. Lows tonight will range from around 50 north and lower 50s down east. Overall no significant changes were made to forecast other than some minor tweaks based on current conditions.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... System currently in the nrn Plains wl slowly advance east and set up shop ovr the wrn Great Lakes by Thur mrng. Wmfnt wl stretch acrs srn New England in the aftn with wnw flow aloft continuing in vicinity of CWA. The morning will start out dry but as wvs ripple thru aloft showers shud quickly dvlp by 15z. Elevated instability wl be present in the morning and aftn hrs acrs most of the area, thus hv included slgt chc thunder into the aftn. Instability wl be on the wane fm west to east by mid-aftn, thus hv rmvd thunder mention fm wrn areas drg the day but expect as wmfnt mvs thru that elevated convection wl return to the region aft about midnight. Warm front wl lift most of the way thru Thur night with an area of showers along the bndry. Elevated instability looks to be marginal thus hv only mentioned isold thunder, mainly acrs central and srn zones. Med range guidance does not bring wmfnt into nrn zones bfr it shift back south as a cdfnt Fri aftn. Thus hv rmvd thunder mention fm the north drg the day on Fri. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Frontal bndry stalls Fri evng as yet another wv dvlps back to the west and shifts it back north as a wmfnt on Sat/Sat ngt. Expect hichc/lkly pops drg the weekend in unstable airmass. Cdfnt wl finally mv thru Mon morning and clr out front once and for all. Latest guidance is now suggesting drier and cooler wx thru mid-week tho upr-lvl trof lingers in ern Canada thru the beginning of the work week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR/VFR flight conditions expected today in sct showers and tstms today. Mainly VFR tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR expected on Thu with potential for MVFR in -shra and -tsra as warm front lifts north Thur night. Off and on MVFR restrictions will persist through the weekend as frontal boundary meanders back and forth over the terminals. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM to initialize the wind grids then reduced model wind speed by 10 percent to correct bias. For Waves: Currently, southerly swell is the primary wave system (2 feet/7-8 seconds) and is expected to dominate today and tonight. Wind wave is expected to remain below 1 foot. Will use NWPS for wave heights. Have also reduced the waves in the Surf Forecast based on near shore output from NWPS. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels until late Thu night. Winds will briefly gust to 25kts late Thu night with seas remaining above 5 feet beginning around midnight Thu in southerly swell into early in the weekend and possibly beyond. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Duda/Farrar Marine...Duda/Farrar

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