Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 230927 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 527 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... One weak area of low pressure will track through Quebec today as another weak low tracks off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The Mid- Atlantic low will track to our south on Wednesday as weak high pressure builds over our region. A stronger low from the midwest will approach the region later Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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522 AM Update: We added patchy dz to the fcst for much of the Rgn til about mid morn, aft which drier air behind the occluded front should end any dz. Otherwise, only very minor chgs to fcst hrly temps/dwpts into late morn based on latest very erly morn obs. Orgnl Disc: Whats left of shwrs will be exiting Ern ptns of the Rgn ovr the next 2 to 3 hrs, leaving in its wake cldy skies; accompanied by patchy fog ovr Cntrl and Downeast areas. Cldnss and any fog will then lift by mid morn, and then break to result in ptly sunny skies by aftn. Hi temps should be well into the 60s and even low 70s ovr the interior SW, depending on how much sunshine we receive. Skies should remain ptly cldy tngt as a weak hi both at the sfc and alf bridges ovr the Rgn from the SW. Cannot rule out late ngt patchy fog spcly where there was a little more rn from this past ovrngt ovr SE ME. Otherwise, under ptly sunny skies on Wed, hi temps should reach the lower to mid 70s across most lower trrn lctns N of the immediate coast which will be cooler due to the arrival of a shallow aftn sea breeze.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Wednesday night will be partly cloudy and tranquil as high pressure to our north ridges down across the region. Clouds will gradually increase late at night as moisture ahead of a large trough approaching from the Midwest begins to move in. High pressure will be centered over the Maritimes Thursday morning as the trough moving through the Midwest redevelops low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The large but poorly organized low will approach Thursday bringing increasing clouds and a chance for some spotty light rain or showers. The best chances for showers will be in western and Downeast areas. The northeast may be cloudy but rainfree most of the day as high pressure over the Maritimes continue to influence the area. Temperatures Thursday will be near normal, in the mid to upper 60s across the area. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure will track across southern New England Thursday night bringing rain, mainly Downeast, and a northeasterly wind across the area. The northern edge of the rain will be across the northern part of our region. Rain may push into the north briefly on Friday as the low tracks into the Gulf of Maine. The rain will then retreat to the south and east late Friday into Friday night as the low exits into the Maritimes and a ridge of high pressure builds into the region. This may allow skies to briefly clear early Saturday morning before a fast moving disturbance circulating around upper level low pressure over Quebec slides through. Drier air should return for Sunday and Monday as high pressure drops down from the north and the low in Quebec exits to the east. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR/low MVFR clgs vsbys Nrn TAF sites and low IFR clgs/vsbys in patchy fog Downeast sites will improve fairly rapidly to VFR by midday. All sites should then remain VFR tngt thru Wed. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Wednesday night. Conditions may drop to MVFR on Thursday as low clouds move in. MVFR conditions across the north and IFR conditions in rain Downeast are expected Thursday night into Friday. Conditions should return to VFR late Friday night. && .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: No hdlns xpctd, with patchy marine fog dissipating later this morn and afternoon, only to likely to reform ovrngt into Wed morn. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance which generally gave 1 to 2 ft wv hts for our intracoastal waters and 2 to 3 ft for our our MZs with wv pds varying from 4 to 7 ft. SHORT TERM: Winds should be below SCA Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A SCA may be needed late Thursday into Thursday night for northeast winds as low pressure tracks toward southern New England. The SCA may extend into Friday before low pressure moves away Friday night.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...VJN/Bloomer Marine...VJN/Bloomer

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