Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 040705 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 305 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA. A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG OR JUST WEST OF THE MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER AT 12Z AND SHOULD PUSH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER SFC HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE SOME AREAS OF STRATUS THIS MORNING THAT MAY LIMIT THE HEATING NEAR THE COAST. BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 0-6KM LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS ALONG WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF SFC HEATING. LIKE YESTERDAY THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IF THE STORMS CAN TURN SEVERE. HAVE BEEFED UP THE WORDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE MENTION OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. UPPER LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH VARIOUS UPPER WAVES ROTATING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION THAT DAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SB CAPES PROGGED TO BE 600-1000 J/KG. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED COVERAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO SCATTERED. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 30-40KT RANGE, WHICH IS ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZATION. GIVEN THE COLD POOL MOVING IN ALOFT, SMALL HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. HAVE NOTED THAT SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THEIR LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. THE COLD CORE LOW WILL SPIN OVER NORTHERN MAINE ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. A BIT LESS MOISTURE AROUND ON THURSDAY, SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER. BUT SMALL HAIL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 70S ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST BOTH DAYS.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA, SO IT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY. THINGS GET INTERESTING OVER THE WEEKEND; THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE INTO AT LEAST THE VICINITY OF MAINE. THERE`S TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF COURSE; THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW ONSHORE NEAR PENOBSCOT BAY SUNDAY MORNING AND LIFTS IT STRAIGHT NORTH TO FORT KENT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS WOULD KEEP THE HEAVIEST PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD MEAN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS, IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST SOME OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS IN FOR ANOTHER WET WEEKEND/FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW WOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL, GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: MOSTLY VFR THOUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF IFR EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS IN LOW STRATUS/FOG. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY PRODUCE POOR VISIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SEAS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT TODAY. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HAVE NOTED THAT THE WAVE GUIDANCE IS RUNNING TOO HIGH, SO HAVE BACKED OFF TO KEEP SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET. THE COOL WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS WELL BELOW 25 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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THE HIGH OF 86F AT CARIBOU YESTERDAY WAS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE OBSERVED SO FAR THIS YEAR.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS MARINE...CB/HASTINGS CLIMATE...CB

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