Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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619 FXUS61 KCAR 250411 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1211 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will cross the region tonight then move east Monday. A warm front will lift across the area Monday night followed by a cold front on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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12:11 AM Update...An upper trough is visible on water vapor satellite pictures early this morning in western Ontario. The upper trough will slowly move east overnight. High clouds and few mid level clouds wil stream east overnight. The mid level air mass is very dry per the 00z KCAR sounding, and the current dew point on top of Mount Washington is is impressive -2F which fits in well with the very dry mid levels observed on our evening sounding. No significant changes at this time, just a few minor tweaks based on the midnight observations. Previous Discussion... An approaching trough of low pressure will bring increasing clouds on Monday. Some showers may stray into western areas late in the day as a warm front approaches. Atmospheric sounding forecasts show generally stable air at the low levels on Monday so the chances for thunderstorms will likely be low. The best chance for a thunderstorm late Monday will be in far western areas where warm air west of the mountains is lifting over the terrain and the more stable air mass over our region. Will have scattered thunderstorms in far western areas late in the day with isolated thunderstorms elsewhere along with the scattered to numerous showers moving eastward.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Fairly unsettled pattern through midweek with temperatures a little above average. Showers likely Monday night most areas with perhaps a few embedded storms. Moist airmass could lead to some locally heavy rain, but it won`t rain everywhere. Models still having some timing issues with the system Monday night plus or minus about six hours. For Tuesday, moist airmass remains and with a bit of cooling aloft and an upper level shortwave trough passing through, could see some storms with small hail. However, shortwave timing is a bit faster than ideal, as trough axis is to the New Brunswick border by early afternoon. So don`t think our storm coverage and strength Tuesday will be as much as it could be if the shortwave was moving a bit slower. Slight drier airmass moves in Tuesday night and Wednesday, but with fairly unstable westerly flow Wednesday, still not convinced Wednesday will be dry. Put in a chance of storms for the north, closer to the upper level low to our NW in Quebec. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Lower than average confidence in the forecast Wednesday night and beyond. Not looking for anything exceptionally hot or cool, or anything exceptionally wet or dry. But precipitation chances day to day are quite uncertain from Wednesday night through the weekend. Generally, looking for a slow moving weak cold front to work its way southeast through the area Wednesday night through Friday. But the front`s progress is very much in question. It could clear the coast Thursday with drying, or hang on until Friday night with storm chances persisting. Tentatively expect Saturday to early Sunday to be dry with near average temperatures. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: Generally expect VFR conditions across the region tonight through early Monday. Occasional MVFR conditions could begin to develop Monday afternoon with any showers or thunderstorms. SHORT TERM: Widespread IFR expected Monday night Downeast in precip and/or low clouds, with MVFR likely further inland. Becoming mostly VFR for Tuesday through Thursday, although a chance of storms will exist and any storms could of course lower conditions. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels tonight through Monday. SHORT TERM: Winds generally 15 knots or less and seas generally 3 feet or less through Thursday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer/CB/Kredensor Short Term...Foisy Long Term...Foisy Aviation...Bloomer/CB/Kredensor/Foisy Marine...Bloomer/CB/Kredensor/Foisy

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