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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCAR 230913
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
513 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will move southeast of the area today. Low
pressure will approach tonight, cross the area Wednesday, then
exit across the Maritimes Thursday. High pressure will build
across the region Friday into Saturday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High pressure will shift off the coast today as a trough of low
pressure begins to approach from the west. The gradient is
rather tight between the departing high and the approaching low
which will result in a strong southerly breeze, especially
during the midday and afternoon over the north. The warm
advection and sunshine will warm the air to near 60 over the
north and the low 50s Downeast. Most of the day will be sunny.
Some clouds will begin to push in from the west ahead of the
approaching trough late this afternoon. Clouds will continue to
increase ahead of the approaching low tonight as the southerly
breeze continues. Some showers supported by convergence ahead of
the approaching trough will begin to push into the western half
of our area toward morning on Wednesday.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Surface low pressure will cross the region Wednesday, with the
supporting upper trof starting to cross late. Expect
precipitation in the form of rain through early Wednesday
afternoon. Colder air will then begin to be drawn south across
the region in the wake of the low later Wednesday afternoon.
This will allow the rain to transition to snow, or mix with
snow, across northern and higher terrain areas during the
afternoon. Generally expect precipitation to remain in the form
of rain Downeast Wednesday. The surface low exits across the
Maritimes Wednesday night, while the upper trof evolves into a
closed low. Colder air in the wake of the surface low, along
with the cold pool aloft with the closing upper low, will allow
a transition to snow across the forecast area in the wake of the
exiting system Wednesday night. Snow will occur across northern
areas early Wednesday night, before tapering to snow showers.
Across Downeast areas, a rain/snow mix early Wednesday night
will transition to snow showers before ending. Minor snow
accumulations are likely across northern and central areas,
along with higher terrain. However, snow totals are still
uncertain dependent on how much precipitation is able to wrap
back into the colder air around the exiting system. Factors
which should limit snow accumulations include snow initially
falling at temperatures above freezing once the transition
occurs. In addition, ground temperatures could result in
melting snow which would also limit accumulations. Preliminary
snow accumulation estimates later Wednesday into Wednesday
night are generally around an inch or less across northern and
central areas. However, locally greater totals are possible
at higher elevations where the transition to snow will occur
earlier. Little or no snow accumulation is expected Downeast. A
disturbance rotating around the exiting upper low could clip the
region early Thursday. This could keep a slight chance of snow
showers across mostly northeast areas early Thursday. Otherwise,
high pressure will build across the region Thursday into
Thursday night. Expect partly/mostly sunny skies across northern
areas Thursday after any lingering early snow showers. Mostly
sunny skies are expected Downeast Thursday. Clear/mostly clear
skies are expected across the entire region Thursday night.
Below normal level temperatures are expected Wednesday, with
falling temperatures during the afternoon. Temperatures will
remain at below normal levels Thursday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure will remain across the region Friday, then begin
to exit across the Maritimes Saturday. Mostly clear skies are
expected Friday through early Saturday, with clouds then
starting to increase later Saturday. Low pressure tracking west
of the region will draw a warm front across the region later
Saturday into Sunday. Uncertainty still exists regarding the
extent of rain shower coverage due to exiting high pressure
across the Maritimes. Due to the uncertainty, have kept rain
shower coverage at just chance levels. A chance of showers
could then persist across the region into Monday. Near normal
level temperatures are expected Friday. Above normal level
temperatures are then expected Saturday through Monday.
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&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Some southwesterly wind shear is likely early this
morning before the air mixes. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected today into tonight with a south wind increasing to 15
kt today and dropping back to 10 kt tonight.

SHORT TERM:

Wednesday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain. Rain mixing with,
or changing to, snow during the afternoon across northern areas.
South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest/west 10 to 15
knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, early. VFR/MVFR
late. Snow tapering to snow showers north. A snow/rain mix
tapering to snow showers Downeast. Northwest winds 10 to 20
knots with gusts 25 to 30 knots.

Thursday...Occasional MVFR possible with a slight chance of snow
showers across northern areas early. Otherwise, VFR. Northwest
winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to around 25 knots,
diminishing to 10 to 15 knots.

Thursday night through Saturday..VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10
knots.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A few wind gusts may approach 25 kt from the south
today. Otherwise, winds should remain below SCA and seas around
3 ft today into tonight.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions expected Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday afternoon. A few wind gusts could also
reach gale levels Wednesday night into early Thursday.
Conditions below small craft advisory levels Thursday night.
Rain Wednesday into Wednesday night. Also, a chance of snow
showers Wednesday night.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Winds will quickly increase from the south to around 15 to 20
kt over the north and 10 to 15 kt near the coast today. The
wind, combined with sunshine, dry fine fuels, and relative
humidities from the upper 20s north to the 40s Downeast will
result in a high fire danger and a risk of any wildfires
spreading from south to north in response of the wind. The fire
danger will decrease tonight and be lower on Wednesday as
showers move in.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Bloomer/Norcross
Marine...Bloomer/Norcross
Fire Weather...Bloomer