Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 170627 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 227 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front will lift across the region this morning. Low pressure will track north of the area tonight. The low will remain to our north Monday into Tuesday then dissipate as it tracks into the Maritimes on Wednesday. Another weak low may form over the region on Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Low pressure over Southern Quebec will track into the St. Lawrence Valley today as it brings slightly warmer air north. Moisture pulling north across the region will get some lift from upper level divergence over the east side of the trough bringing light precipitation today, primarily this morning. Thicknesses are very marginal, but suggest rain south, and a mix of rain and snow across the northeast. Accumulating snow is most favored over the higher elevations of the north where an inch or two is possible through the morning. Precipitation will taper off to scattered showers late today as the warm front lifts to our north. Surface low pressure will begin to weaken and track to our north tonight as slightly drier and cooler air begins to work in from the west beneath the low. Moisture pooled in the low, and in the upper trough which will also be just to our north, may bring some scattered snow showers over the north. To the south, the air will become drier with some breaks in the overcast and a gusty westerly breeze setting in. This system seems to lack a well defined cold front following it, but does show a gradual infiltration of cooler air beginning tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The FA will remain in cyclonic flow aloft in a low 500 millibar height pattern as an upper trough in the northern Canadian Maritimes extends into the region. The air mass aloft is cold, but 925H temps are near to a little above average for this time of year. As moisture and weak disturbances cross the area there will be scattered showers, mainly across the north and western high terrain. The showers would most likely be snow at night and during the morning, and rain or snow in the afternoon. Local minor accumulations are possible, but it is unlikely that any one spot would get more than an inch or two of snow over the duration of the short term. Lower shower chances toward Bangor and the coast with downslope flow. Highs will mostly be in the mid to upper 30s north with low to mid 40s toward the coast. Lows Monday night will range from 25-30F north, and in the low to mid 30s along the coast.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Briefly drier Tue night into Wed as the upper trough in the Maritimes lifts out. Another trough from northern Canada digs into New England Wed night into Thursday with colder air filtering into the region. Most of the models indicate that a surface low develops somewhere along the New England coast during this time, but there are a lot of differences on where the development takes place. There will likely be some snow showers that accompany the colder air, but if the surface low develops close enough to the FA there could be a steadier snow, especially if an inverted surface trough extends back into Maine from the coast. Friday will likely remain cold with a few more snow showers, especially across the north. By Saturday model differences are significant and range from high pressure building into the area to an area of low pressure tracking up the coast with rain and snow. Forecaster confidence is very low at this time for Saturday.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: IFR conditions are expected in low clouds today with a possible improvement to MVFR then VFR over southern sites late this afternoon. Light SE wind becoming S then W this afternoon. VFR conditions at southern sites and IFR to MVFR conditions across the north are expected tonight. Light W wind. SHORT TERM: Mon: Predominately MVFR at the northern terminals with local IFR in snow showers. MVFR to VFR at the Downeast terminals. Wind west 10 to 15 knots. Mon night & Tue: MVFR most of the time north, and predominately VFR at the Downeast terminals. West wind 5 to 10 knots Mon night, becoming NW 10 to 15 knots with a few higher gusts Tue. Tue night and Wed: VFR Downeast and MVFR to VFR at the Aroostook terminals. West wind 5 to 10 knots. Wed night & Thu: MVFR with scatterd snow showers. Possible IFR if there is a period of steadier snow. Wind shifting into the N around 5 knots Wed night, becoming NW 10 to 15 knots and gusty Thu.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: A SCA will continue today for S winds gusting up to 30 kt, with a few gusts up to 35 kt over the offshore waters, and 25 kt across the intracoastal waters. Winds will drop below SCA this evening but may increase back to SCA over the offshore waters late tonight in a gusty W wind. Seas will average around 6 to 8 ft today, subsiding to 5 ft tonight. SHORT TERM: Wind gusts are expected to be around 25 knots on the coastal waters Monday with seas 4 to 5 ft, so borderline small craft advisory conditions are expected. The wind and seas are expected to be below SCA levels Mon night through Wed, although a few gusts to 25 knots are possible Tue afternoon. SCA conditions are likely on Thursday.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...Bloomer Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...Bloomer/CB Marine...Bloomer/CB

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