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948
FXUS61 KCAR 100744
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
344 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the region through Saturday night.
A warm front approaches Sunday, then lifts to the north Sunday
night and Monday. A storm system approaches from the west Monday
night and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A surface ridge of high pressure will slowly move into the
forecast area from the west through the day today. Mostly clear
skies will continue through the early morning hours, before
diurnal heating leads to the development of a cumulus field
through the afternoon. Additionally, some high level cirrus are
beginning to make their way into the southern portion of the
forecast area early this morning, and may also lead to an
increase in cloud cover through the afternoon. Cumulus this
afternoon could contain a few isolated rain showers, but with a
lack of deep mid-level moisture, the chance for these showers is
low (10%), and any showers that do form will likely not result
in measurable precipitation.

With the lack of cloud cover through the first half of the day,
temperatures will make a run for 60 this afternoon. Tonight,
temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 30s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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The surface level trof should keep the low pressure to the
south over the waters on Saturday. RH models show the clouds
building in early making for a mostly cloudy day. This with the
cold pool should keep temps in the mid 50s across the region. By
the afternoon, upper air model soundings show instability
developing with lower CAPE values, but steep lapse rates.
Nevertheless, the warm air in the mid levels and the lack of
cool air to advect into the atmosphere, the chance of
thunderstorms is unlikely. Scatter showers are expected through
the afternoon and evening. By Saturday night, the upper level
trof over the Great Lakes will slowly move E. Clouds should keep
temps from in the upper 30s.

By Sunday, shortwave energy from the SW is expected to move into
the region bringing more moisture. The afternoon will bring more
instability, but the lack of lift will only bring convective
showers. By Sunday night, weak high pressure move in late to
help make for partly cloud skies.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A developing occlusion is excepted to move across Canada with
the triple point over New England on Monday and progress across
the region through Tuesday. The warm sector of the occlusion and
the warm front to the south is expected to bring a warming trend
throughout next week. Showers are expected on Tuesday and into
Wednesday. As the front moves through the area, there is a
slight chance for thunderstorms on Wednesday, but lack of
confidence in the timing of the track kept thunderstorms out of
the forecast for the time being. High pressure should return by
the end of the week.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: SKC to continue through the early morning, with cigs
remaining VFR through the day today even as afternoon cumulus
develop. Winds NE at 5 to 10 kts through the afternoon. Cigs
will likely remain VFR into Friday night with winds becoming
light and variable once more, though increasing cloud cover from
the south and east could lower towards MVFR late.

SHORT TERM: Sat...Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR in rain showers.
Light E winds.

Sat night...VFR. Light ENE winds.

Sun-Sun night...Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR in afternoon rain
showers. Light and variable winds.

Mon-Tue...MVFR in rain showers. S winds 5-15 kts.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through tonight. Highest wind gusts may approach 20 kts
briefly on the coastal waters this afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas should remain below SCA conditions
through this time period.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...AStrauser/LaFlash
Marine...AStrauser/LaFlash