Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 100535 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1235 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1210 AM UPDATE: WHATS LEFT OF LONG LIVED LEFT OVR SN SHWRS ARE FINALLY EXITING NE PTNS OF THE FA. ONLY CHG WAS HRLY TEMPS AND FCST LOW TEMPS FOR ERLY THIS MORN...WITH CHGS NEEDED FOR NW PTNS OF THE FA WHERE OBSVD 11 PM TEMPS WERE LOWER THAN THE PREV FCST OF LOW TEMPS. FCST LOWS OVR THE REST OF THE FA STILL LOOK REASONABLE ATTM...ALTHOUGH PRTL CLRG COULD OFFSET THIS FCST. PREV DISC: SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WINDING DOWN. UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW TODAY WILL BE LIFTING INTO CANADA OVERNIGHT AND W/IT WILL BE THE REST OF THE LIGHT SNOW. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR INCLUDING THE MRMS SHOWED BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW LIFTING NW ACROSS NORTHERN 3RD OF MAINE WHERE BEST CONVERGENCE RESIDES. SNOW HAS BEEN LIGHT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HRS AND SHOWED REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING. THE HRRR 3KM ALONG W/THE CANADIAN GEM HANDLING THINGS WELL AND INDICATE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THROUGH THE EVENING AND THEN ENDING BY EARLY WED MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. KEPT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH 7 PM. THE EVENING CREW WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE ADVISORIES W/THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. EXPECTING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. FOR WEDNESDAY, A SFC TROF IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. AN UPPER TROF W/WEAK LOW PRES PASSING MOVING UP ACROSS THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE COULD HELP TO SET OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. ATTM, STAYED W/THE CONSENSUS APCH OF 30% POPS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. A VERY WEAK LOW IN THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL BEGIN PARTLY SUNNY. ANOTHER VERY WEAK LOW APPROACHING ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT MAY BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH TO TEENS DOWNEAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN FROM WESTERN QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, MAY SEE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. WENT WITH LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, AND CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. MODELS AGREE WELL ON THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH BUT DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH WILL IMPACT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AT LEAST THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY, AND ON THE HIGH END, JUST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. WHAT MOST PEOPLE WILL NOTICE THIS WEEKEND IS THE BITTERLY COLD AIR, LIKELY THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 FURTHER SOUTH. LOWS BELOW ZERO MOST AREAS. WHAT AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT IS THE POTENTIAL WIND CHILLS. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF US MOST OF THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING DECENT NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH THE BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS. COULD BE SEEING WIND CHILLS TO AROUND 30 BELOW OVER THE NORTH. REMARKABLY, WE HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY WIND CHILL PRODUCTS THIS SEASON. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL CHANGE. NEXT CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM AROUND TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE THIS SYSTEM. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND PASSING JUST WEST OF US, WHICH WOULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AND LOTS OF WIND TO THE AREA. OF COURSE, WITH IT BEING A WEEK OUT, THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE THINKING TO CHANGE. BUT BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR RESTRICTIONS ACRS TERMINALS THIS EVENING. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS BY 05Z WITH NORTHERN SITES SEEING MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND OCNL IFR SN AT CAR/FVE THRU 02Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN SITES THRU END OF TAF VALID TIME. SOUTHERN TERMINALS MAY DROP TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN -SN BY BY 20Z WED. SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR THE OUTER ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS FOR THE LATEST SWELL DEVELOPMENT. SWELLS ARE AVERAGING 9 TO 11 FEET W/PERIODS OF 11 TO 15 SECONDS FROM THE SE. NEEDED TO BRING WAVE HEIGHTS UP SOME BASED ON THE LATEST OBS. SWAN GUIDANCE AND THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL DOES SHOW WAVES DROPPING OFF BELOW 6 FT FOR A TIME, BUT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SWELLS WILL BUILD AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWED SEAS BUILDING BACK UP TO 6 TO 8 FT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WATERS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...FOISY AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER

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