Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KCAR 291009
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
609 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016
A warm front will approach from the south today and then move
north across the region late tonight through Monday. A cold front
will cross the area Monday night. Drier weather is expected
Tuesday through much of next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Based on latest radar reflectivity imagery needed to expand
showers a bit further south into interior down east through the
morning hours. Also, removed the mention of isolated thunder
across the north today since it will be too stable, with cool
east winds keeping temperatures only in the 50s. Lastly, lowered
max temperatures today a couple degrees with cloud cover in place.
Latest radar reflectivity imagery shows light
rain across far northern Maine in association with a developing
warm front at 850mb. Latest Hi-res model data continues to support
the idea of light rain today, mainly across far northern Maine in
the vicinity of the front, thus will keep pops close to 100
percent today across the far north. Most of the rain today should
be confined to northern areas although a few showers could sneak
down just north of the Bangor region. With a few lightning strikes
showing up across western Quebec, will maintain isolated thunder
across northern areas today. High temperatures today will be
several degrees cooler than yesterday.
Tonight will feature abundant cloud cover as a moist southerly
flow prevails across the region with stratus clouds and patchy
fog expected. A few showers can be expected from time to time.
Lows will be in the 50s across most of the region.
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.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Juicy airmass in place Monday with precipitable water values over
1.50 inches in most areas and a muggy feel with dewpoints around
60. Slightly concerned about potential for heavy downpours, but
opted to leave out of forecast and just go with likely to low
categorical PoPs based on modest dynamics and fairly low model
QPFs. Timing of precipitation on Monday a bit tricky, though most
models bring a round of showers with embedded storms in the
morning, then a break in the afternoon, then a possible round of
perhaps stronger storms in the north/northwest late
Could be a few storms Tuesday as the actual cold front moves
though. Less moisture to work with than Monday, though, and most
storms if they do occur should be in the afternoon.
Drier and somewhat cooler air moves in Tuesday night and
Wednesday with a dry, mostly sunny day Wednesday with high
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure moves east Wednesday night which allows onshore flow
to return. However, shower chances should hold off until Friday
and Saturday. Onshore flow Thursday through Saturday will keep
daytime temperatures a bit below average toward the coast, with
near average temperatures in Northern Maine.
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected through early this morning with
widespread shower activity affecting KFVE/KCAR/KPQI terminals.
Conditions are expected to become MVFR at all terminals by this
afternoon mainly due to lowering cigs. Widespread IFR conditions
can be expected across the entire region tonight in lowering
ceilings with even LIFR possible KBGR/KBHB due to a combination of
fog and low ceilings.
IFR likely areawide Monday morning. Some improvement to vfr most
areas Monday afternoon except perhaps near the coast due to
onshore flow. A few storms possible Monday. VFR for most areas
Monday night, and VFR very likely areawide Tuesday through
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels through tonight. Areas of fog will reduce visibility to 1
to 3 nm at times tonight.
SHORT TERM: South wind 10 to 15 knots and seas 2 to 5 feet Monday
and Tuesday. Behind a cold front that passes late Tuesday, winds
shift to the north and remain below small craft levels Tuesday
night and Wednesday.