Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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199 FXUS61 KCAR 210509 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1209 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will cross the region overnight. A warm front will lift across the area Tuesday morning then a cold front will cross the region Wednesday. High pressure will build over the area Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 12:09 am Update...There is one small area of low clouds in parts of the eastern Saint John Valley that are expected to lift out the area over the next 1 to 2 hours. Otherwise, some high and mid level clouds will work into back into the region in advance of a warm front toward morning. Temperatures have dropped into teens across most of the Downeast Region with some single digits in the northern valleys. Other than some minor tweaks to the temps and sky conditions, the ongoing forecast is fine shape early this morning. Previous Discussion... The return flow behind the high, and ahead of low pressure north of the Great Lakes, will lift a warm front across the area Tuesday morning. This will bring a mostly cloudy sky to the north and partial cloudiness Downeast. Precipitation is not expected with the front. Clouds will lift north Tuesday afternoon and Downeast will become mostly sunny with partial sunshine over the north. A southerly flow Tuesday afternoon will lift milder air north across the area. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Round of rain coming Wednesday and then turning colder again. Clouds will be on the increase Tuesday night ahead of a apchg cold front. Temps will drop off some during the evening and then level off by midnight as the clouds thicken. The 12z suite of the guidance including the NAM/GFS and Canadian GEM slow the arrival of precip down. This seems reasonable as sounding data showed llvls staying dry through much of the night. 925 mb temps are shown to rise well into the 40s by Wednesday morning alleviating any threat for frozen/freezing precip. There could be a brief period of snow mainly across the far n and w(near the border) before the warm air takes over. Decided to go w/rain instead of showers as the latest set of guidance including the ECMWF and Canadian show a weak wave of low pres out ahead of the front bringing a good slug of rain to the downeast region into midday Wednesday. Expecting up to 0.50 inches across the downeast coast w/lesser amounts as one heads north and west. Temps Wednesday will be in the 40s say from Caribou on south while the far n and w, will be in the upper 30s. Colder air is expected to move in by late afternoon w/any leftover rain going to snow before ending. No accumulation expected. Much colder Wednesday night w/winds dropping off and skies clearing. This will allow temps to drop back into the teens and 20s. Sunshine expected for Thursday as high pres noses in from the sw w/daytime temps near seasonal norms. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Another cold front expected for Friday w/the potential for snow showers/possible squalls. A cold night Thursday night w/clouds on the increase ahead of the apchg front. Once again, temps will be down in the teens and 20s. The front is forecast to quickly move across the region on Friday w/a round of snow showers and possibly a snow squall. Most of the activity will be across the northern 1/2 of the CWA. Any accumulations will be minor w/an inch or less at best. NW winds will increase behind the front later Friday into Friday night w/colder air moving into the region and along w/clearing skies. Overnight lows Friday night in the mid/upper teens for the n and w as lower to mid 20s look to be about right for central and downeast areas. A brief break early Saturday and then yet another frontal system to affect the region later Saturday into Saturday night w/warmer air moving in. Temps on Saturday are forecast to be in the upper 30s and 40s w/the precip mainly in liquid form. Temps might need to be adjusted upward if the trend continues for 925mbs temps to 5-7C by late Saturday as shown by the 12z ECMWF. Decided on showers for this evening giving the low confidence w/the possibility of a low forming on the front. The ECMWF and Some of its ensemble members show this to be so, but the other operational guidance is weaker w/the low not phasing and staying well to the east. Colder for Sunday w/snow showers in the forecast and colder again. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR ceilings at KFVE should give way to VFR by 08Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected across the region overnight through Tuesday. SHORT TERM: VFR early Tuesday night w/conditions going down to MVFR and IFR by early Wednesday especially w/the cigs. Mainly MVFR for Wednesday w/the cold front moving through the region. There could be a period of IFR especially across KBGR and KBHB w/a brief period of heavier rainfall. VFR Wednesday night into Thursday. Conditions look like they could deteriorate down to MVFR and perhaps IFR once again for Friday w/another frontal system. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all the waters through 4 AM. Southerly winds will increase during the midday and afternoon Tuesday and a SCA will likely be needed again. SHORT TERM: SCA conditions for Tuesday night w/gusts to 25 kts. Seas will stay up between 4 and 6 ft. A brief break in things early Wednesday but then conditions are expected to come back up later Wednesday into Wednesday night w/sw winds going wnw and gusts hitting 25+ kts. Seas are expected to around 5 ft or so mainly across the outer zones. Thursday looks to be a bit quieter and high pres noses in from the sw. Winds are expected to drop off to 10-15 kts w/seas backing off to 3-4 ft. Possible SCA mainly for the outer zones come Friday w/passage of yet another front. Kept conditions borderline attm w/winds reaching 20 kts and seas apchg 5-6 ft. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...CB Short Term...Hewitt Long Term...Hewitt Aviation...CB/Hewitt Marine...CB/Hewitt

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