Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 300823 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 423 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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DRIZZLE AND CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN INTO MAINE W/A WEDGE TYPE SETUP AS LOW PRES WAS MOVING ENE FROM CAPE COD AND A TROF OF LOW WAS ALIGN ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THESE 2 FEATURES WHILE ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE STATE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WERE OCCURRING. THE DECISION WAS STAY W/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE TODAY. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY DAY W/ENE WINDS IN THE BLYR AND CLOUDS KEEPING READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE 50 TO 55. DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS WILL HANG ON INTO TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SOME DRYING STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COLUMN W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST WILL HANG ONTO CLOUDS AND THE DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS W/DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE BLYR THROUGH 900 MBS AND THE SOME DRYING PLUS A ENE FLOW IS IN PLACE AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLEARING. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND MID TO UPPER 40S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC SE OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE TOWARDS CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL US AND CANADA WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WELL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOADED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR WND/SKY/POP/HRLY DP .PLACED HIGH AND LOWS...EXTRAPOLATED FOR HRLY TEMPS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS A LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM CANADA TO THE GULF COAST STATES. BY SAT MRNG...THE NOW OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE COAST OF VA...THEN SOUTH ALONG THE COAST ACROSS FL...INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SE OF NOVA SCOTIA REMAINS STATIONARY...GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ITS LOCATION. BY SAT EVNG...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN MAINE...THEN BY SUN MRNG THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS ERN MAINE. BY SUN EVNG THE FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGE NORTH INTO SRN MAINE. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MON MRNG. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LONG WAVE...HOWEVER ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOCATION. BY MON EVNG THE LONG WAVE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON STRENGTH. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF SLOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CAPE COD...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE DELMARVA. LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATER. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER COASTAL WATERS.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR WILL CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. IFR WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB. SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT AM FOG IN THE THE VICINITY OF WATER BODIES...ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: WINDS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AT 20 KTS W/GUST 25+ KTS. SEAS ARE UP TO 6 FT, BUT STARTING TO COME DOWN. LATEST THINKING IS THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS BY 8 AM AND WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE HEADLINE W/THE 7 AM UPDATE. CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SCA TONIGHT. DRIZZLE WILL LOWER VSBYS TO 3 NM OR LESS. SHORT TERM: A SCA MAYBE REQUIRED FOR NE WNDS WED AND THURS. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...NORTON LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...HEWITT/NORTON MARINE...HEWITT/NORTON

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