Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 300748 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 348 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND COOLER AIR WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RETURN WEST... SOUTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION WILL BRING MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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UPPER SHORTWAVE IS RAPIDLY SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALSO MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY; THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY MID MORNING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS ALL BUT ONE OR TWO SHOWERS EXITING OUR AREA AROUND 14Z/10 AM. IT IS NOTED THAT THE HRRR ALSO TRIES TO PRODUCE SOME POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ALL WE`LL SEE IS SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS SOME VIRGA. BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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THE L/WV PATTERN OVR NA WILL FEATURE A BUILDING MDTLY HI AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS AS AN UPPER TROF BUILDS SWRD OVR THE W COAST. THIS PLACES NRN/ERN ME IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THIS RIDGE... MEANING THAT ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY AVG ABV NORMAL FOR THIS PD...THE REGION WILL BE SUBJECT TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES AS S/WVS CRESTING THE RIDGE IN CNTRL CAN N OF THE GREAT LKS DROP ESEWRD INTO CAN MARITIMES. THE FIRST OF THESE S/WVS WILL BE CROSSING JUST N OF THE FA ON MON BRINGING CLDNSS AND SHWRS TO MSLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE MON MON THRU MIDDAY AND PERHAPS INTO CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ERLY TO MID AFTN. ATTM...WARM MID LVL TEMPS WILL LIKELY KEEP SHWRS FROM DEVELOPING INTO TSTMS OVR ME...BUT AN ISOLD TSTM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT TUE AFTN ALG THE NE ME/NW NB BORDER BEFORE THE S/WV MOVES E OF THE FA LATE MON AFTN. RNFL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE GREATEST IN THE ST JOHN VLY WHERE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE...WITH LESSER OR NO RN AS ONE TRAVERSES FURTHER S. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FROM N CNTRL CAN WILL ADVECT SWRD INTO THE FA MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH DWPTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA BY TUE MORN. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO RISE MON MORN WITH MDT LLVL COLD ADVCN...THEN MAKE MAKE A LITTLE FASTER RECOVERY TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS TUE AFTN AS THE LLVL TEMP ADVCN BECOMES MORE NEUTRAL ALL UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A WARM DRY FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY WED MORN AS THE SFC HI MOVES S OF THE FA TUE NGT. WINDS...WHICH WILL BEGIN NEAR CALM TUE EVE WILL SHIFT TO THE LGT SW LATE TUE NGT AS SKIES BECOME PTLY CLDY.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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WITH THE UPPER RIDGE FLEXING SW TO NE OVR THE FA...TEMPS WILL RAPIDLY RISE ON WED INTO THE 80S OVR THE REGION WITH A WSW WIND AND PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES AS HUMIDITY RISES WITH INCREASING SFC DWPTS REACHING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A VERY WEAK S/WV AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN ISOLD TO SCT MID/LATE AFTN AND ERLY EVE TSTMS...MSLY ACROSS THE N. WHATS LEFT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLIDE S AND W OF THE FA BY THU...PERHAPS BEING A FOCUS OF SCT AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS ALG THE SW FLANK OF OUR FA ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL ME. HI TEMPS OVR E CNTRL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS WILL CONT VERY WARM SIMILAR TO WED...BUT ACROSS THE N SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER (UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S) AND DRIER AS SFC DWPTS FALL BACK INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT. AFTWRDS FOR FRI AND SAT...LONGER RANGE MODELS DISAGREE CONCERNING WHETHER THE FA WILL BE IN SHALLOW COOLER AIR FROM NE CANADA OR MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. GIVEN THAT EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TMG OF WEAK S/WVS WILL BE PIVOTAL IN DETERMINING THE TMG OF FRONTS ACROSS THE FA...WE KEPT CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND AVG OF LONGER RANGE MODELS FOR HI TEMPS ON FRI AND SAT WHICH STILL GIVES THE REGION ABV NORMAL TEMPS...BUT WITH LOW CERTAINTY ON EITHER DAY. FOR NOW...WE KEPT FCST RN POPS EACH DAY.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR...XCPT PERHAPS A BRIEF PD OR TWO OF MVFR CLGS/VSBYS OVR NRN TAF SITES WITH HEAVIER SHWRS ON MON AND AGAIN WED AFTN/ERLY EVE.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE WATERS TODAY OR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS AND LGT SEAS XPCTD...REACHING 2 TO 3 FT OVR OUR OUTER MZS AND 1 TO 2 FT ALG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. ABOUT 90 AND 70 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO PRODUCE FCST WV HTS.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN

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