Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 191638 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1238 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1230 PM UPDATE... ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS THE STORY FOR TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. UPDATED WITH CURRENT TRENDS OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM QUEBEC TO THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO DATE. LITTLE OR NO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 20S...THE AIR WILL HAVE A VERY DRY AND CRISP FALL-LIKE FEEL. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT...ALLOWING A RADIATION INVERSION TO FORM WITH FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS AFFECTING DOWN EAST THE MOST. EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE CURRENT HEADLINES ARE CANCELED. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH FOR TONIGHT`S LOWS DOWN EAST WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR MOST OF THE NIGHT WHILE CIRRUS THICKENS IN NORTHERN ZONES. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY WITH SOME DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOW TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED NOT TOO LONG AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A RAPID WARM UP TOWARDS THE COAST LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME STRATOCU FIELDS POSSIBLE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT INTO THE ATLANTIC SAT WITH A MILD RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. THIS MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER ACROSS PARTS OF NW MAINE AND INTO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY...BUT FOR MOST OF THE CWA IT WILL BE A DRY DAY. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE AREA SUN. THE FLOW ALOFT IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT AND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SUN WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE. MUCH OF THE DOWN EAST REGION MAY REMAIN MAINLY DRY INTO SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS NEAR OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE 70F IN MOST AREAS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT. THE CANADIAN IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT DEVELOPING A LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WOULD BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO THE CWA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER EAST AND MORE OR LESS JUST HAS A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SOME SHOWERS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY STAYED CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW WITH HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS SUN NIGHT. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON WITH A BRISK WEST WIND. A STRONG SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WORK ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SO ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WHERE HIGHS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WED INTO THU WITH DRY AND CLEAR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WED AND MODERATE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS THU. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT BHB BY SATURDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: MOSTLY VFR OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/RAIN SUN NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY. POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE TUE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE COME DOWN ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THEREFORE WILL ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE AT 10AM. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. SHORT TERM: THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAY REACH SCA LEVELS BY SAT NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. && .CLIMATE... THE TEMPERATURE AT CARIBOU FELL TO 31F SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT. THIS WAS THE FIRST TIME THE TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW FREEZING AT CARIBOU THIS FALL. THE LAST TIME THE TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW FREEZING WAS ON 5/13/14 FOR A TOTAL OF 128 DAYS THIS YEAR WHEN THE TEMPERATURE REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...JORDAN/MCW SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...JORDAN/MCW/CB MARINE...JORDAN/MCW/CB CLIMATE...CB

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