Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 292215 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 615 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will cross the state late on Monday. A cold front will cross the area Monday night. Drier weather is expected Tuesday through much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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600 PM Update: Chgs this update include adding patchy dz to the region for the remainder of the ngt and updating hrly temps based on obsvd hi temps from earlier in the aftn and obsvd 4 an 5 pm obsvd temps to msly unchgd fcst lows. The last chg was to modify high trrn fcst lows and high temps aoa 1750msl based on trends of fcst 850 mb temps. Orgnl Disc: A warm front currently lies draped across southern and western New England this afternoon, with cold cloudy conditions prevailing over much of the Pine Tree State. Showers, resulting from decaying convection in Quebec, will continue to stream across mainly central regions of our forecast area this evening, with perhaps a rumble of thunder or two in the North Woods and Moosehead Lake region. The showers will gradually lift overnight as the warm front starts to push very slowly northward. Very mild and moist air exists on the southern side of the front, and expect fog will develop late tonight, especially Downeast. Temperatures will likely hold steady or even rise a bit overnight. For Memorial Day...showers will be ongoing in the morning as the warm front finally makes a real push northward. They should begin to wind down through the mid to late morning hours as the warm front lifts north and the upper shortwave moves east into New Brunswick. Things become less certain for the afternoon as much hinges on how quick we can get into the warm sector and if we can get any clearing and for how long. Assuming we keep plentiful cloud cover, the lack of sunshine will limit heating and instability potential, precluding any thunderstorms. However, it should be noted that model soundings from both the NAM and the GFS show portions of the forecast area, especially the North Woods, breaking out for a few hours. This would allow more heating and more instability; the NAM has SBCAPEs up to 1500 J/kg during the late afternoon, while the GFS is more modest (and probably more realistic) with 800 J/kg or so. This would be enough for thunderstorms to develop ahead of an approaching cold front, mainly late afternoon into early evening. 0-6km shear is decent, progged to be around 40 kt or so. As such, any storms that develop could become organized and strong enough to produce gusty winds approaching severe levels. PWATs of 1.5+ inches indicate that heavy rain would also be a concern. SPC Day 2 outlook does have northwestern Maine in a Marginal Risk tomorrow. At this time, though, any clearing/sunshine looks to be very short-lived, giving a very short window for thunderstorm development. Have therefore just gone with isolated thunderstorms in the forecast during the afternoon with no mention of strong storms. Persons who are planning to spend time outdoors tomorrow afternoon, particularly in the North Woods and Moosehead Lake region, should stay tuned for forecast updates.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A fast moving weak shortwave trough will likely bring showers and/or thunderstorms to northern Maine Monday evening. The region gets a brief respite Tuesday morning before another fasting moving shortwave trough swings through Tuesday afternoon with another chance of showers. High pressure aloft builds in Tuesday night into Wednesday for dry and cooler weather conditions. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Long term forecast period look to be begin with tranquil weather as a 500mb shortwave ridge is progged to crest over the region Wednesday night into the day on Thursday. Forecast confidence is above average for this time-frame with seasonable temperatures expected. Thursday night into Friday both the GEFS/ECMWF camps are showing the next weather maker reaching Maine on Friday with return flow off the Gulf of Maine, most likely moving the marine layer back on land and increasing cloud cover. Chances for rain will increase through Friday night as a possible weak 500mb shortwave trough reaches the area. General cyclonic flow becomes established by the weekend, with the chance of unsettled weather and near normal temperatures expected.
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&& .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions will prevail at the northern terminals through this evening, while the southern sites will remain VFR. Then all sites are expected to drop to IFR/LIFR due to widespread showers and fog after 06z. These conditions will persist into Monday morning, as late as 15z or so. Then gradual improvement to MVFR is expected as the fog dissipates and showers become less numerous. SHORT TERM: MVFR conditions will be possible in showers and/or thunderstorms at northern TAF sites (KFVE, KCAR, KPQI, KHUL) Monday evening and again Tuesday afternoon in showers and/or thunderstorms. MVFR conditions will be possible at all TAF sites in showers or thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No headlines will be needed over the waters through the remainder of the weekend. The main concern for the period will be reduced visibility in areas of fog tonight into Monday morning. SHORT TERM: An SCA may be needed Monday night into Tuesday for Seas 4-6 feet. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Okulski Long Term...Dumont Aviation...VJN/Okulski Marine...VJN/Okulski

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