Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 221025 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 625 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE 0625 EDT: BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE ADJUSTED POP... WEATHER... WIND... TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1034 MB) IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE NORTH TODAY WHILE THE STRONG HIGH REMAINS STATIONARY. BANDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THEN MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE SAME PATTERN WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOR POPS...SKY CONDITIONS AND QPF WILL BLEND THE NAM12...GFS40 AND ECMWF WHICH ALL HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 HAS BEEN USED FOR BOTH SUSTAINED WINDS.... TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. WILL USE 125 PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS FOR GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS BELOW CRITERIA FOR ADVISORY...HOWEVER DUE TO SOFT SOIL WILL KEEP ADVISORY BASED ON IMPACT FOR POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRES OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL GET CAPTURED AS THE UPPER LOW MIGRATES E. BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE ATLC. THE HEAVIEST AXIS WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DECENT DEFORMATION BANDING, A LLVL JET OF 45-50 KTS AND UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL AID IN THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS THE MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING FROM FL NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED IN THE ENHANCED CLOUD STRUCTURE. A PORTION OF THE PLUME WILL GET PULLED INTO NEW ENGLAND ADDING TO HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. SO, THERE IS POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL >1.50 INCHES IN A 6 HR PERIOD. AS OF 06Z, PWM RECEIVED 1.62 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE 12Z TUESDAY AND IT WAS STILL RAINING. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. EXTENDED THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING ALL THE WAY INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA W/THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. RAINFALL TOTALS EXTENDED ACROSS A 72 HR PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO DOWNEAST MAINE INCLUDING THE COAST W/SOME AMOUNTS HITTING 6 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS. ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE, IT LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. WINDS ARE A CONCERN FOR THE COAST AND A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE BEST SHOT FOR STRONG WINDS MIXING DOWN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SIDE OF WASHINGTON COUNTY CLOSER TO THE LLVL JET CORE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW GUST POTENTIAL FOR EASTPORT TO BE AROUND 47 MPH. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE HANCOCK COUNTY COAST. IMPACT WILL BE AN ISSUE W/LEAVES ON THE TREES AND A SATURATED GROUND. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRES WILL THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY W/SOME SHOWERS AROUND EARLY IN THE DAY. AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GFS AND ECMWF TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING BUT MUCH COLDER. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. A FAST MOVING LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION W/RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO AROUND 0.25 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL. HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ON MONDAY W/DRIER BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE IN THE OFFING FOR TUESDAY AS SSW WINDS KICK IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH AS IT MOVES TO THE E. THE GFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE ADVERTISING 925MB TEMPS TO SHOOT TO A RANGE OF 14-17C. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO MILD TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE GIVEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE. ATTM, DECIDED TO TAKE CONSENSUS APPROACH W/MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST POSSIBLY SEEING 60-65. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS W/THE LATER MODEL GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DECREASE TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: IFR W/LLWS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS THE KBGR AND KBHB REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL REMAIN AT IFR. IFR/MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS INTO SATURDAY WHILE KBGR AND KBHB LOOK TO GO VFR BY MIDDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 WITH 125 PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS FOR GUST SPEED. GALE WARNING STILL LOOKS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH TO NORTH AND DEVELOPING LOW TO SOUTH. WILL KEEP TIMING THE SAME. FOR WAVES: AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FETCH IS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHEAST WIND WAVE. LARGEST WAVES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS (11 FEET/8-9 SECONDS) DUE TO LIMITED FETCH FURTHER NORTH. A SECONDARY WAVE SYSTEM (SOUTHEAST 4-5 FEET/9-10 SECONDS) ALSO EXPECT TO ENTER THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY ORIGINATING FROM FETCH ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE OCEAN LOW. WILL USE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR GRIDS. COASTAL FLOODING: DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PROBLEM AT THIS TIME DUE TO ANGLE OF WAVE ATTACK AND RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM. ALSO LUNAR/TIDE CYCLE IS NOT HIGHEST OF MONTH. WAVE RUNNUP MATRICES NOT SHOWING ANY OVERTOPPING. SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY W/A GRADUAL WEAKENING BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET LIFTS NE. DECIDED TO STAY W/GUSTS OF 40 KTS FOR NOW AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 12 FT AND THEN BEGIN TO FALL BACK BY THURSDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO A SCA RIGHT INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY UP ABOVE 6 FT. CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA LEVELS ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. && .HYDROLOGY... AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT RISES FROM THE EXPECTED RAINFALL. SINCE THIS IS STRETCHED OVER A LONG DURATION, FLOODING OF THE MAINSTEM RIVERS IS NOT EXPECTED ALTOUGH MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO CLOGGED STORM DRAINS FROM THE FALLEN LEAVES AND PONDING OF WATER. THIS SITUATION NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED W/THE MOISTURE PLUME COULD GET PULLED INTO THE REGION ECNHANCING RAINFALL RATES. IF THIS OCCURS, THEN SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVERS COULD SHOW SHARPER RISES AND POSSIBLY HIT BANKFUL. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032. WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR MEZ029-030. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE SHORT TERM...HEWITT LONG TERM...HEWITT AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT HYDROLOGY...HEWITT

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.