Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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927 FXUS61 KCAR 261632 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1232 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will cross the region today with plenty of sunshine and near seasonal temperatures. An occluded front will cross the region Tuesday. High pressure will build across the region from Labrador by mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update...Reduced lows for tonight in northern Aroostook. Some patchy frost is possible again towards northeastern Aroostook County before clouds thicken quickly near daybreak. Reduced QPF in northern zones for tomorrow. Most of the QPF will be towards the coast with a weak low traveling along the coast by afternoon. Dropped highs for tomorrow...especially in the north 1/3 of the forecast area where the thickening clouds and a chilly east flow will limit highs to the lower 50s. Added some patchy fog during late Tuesday afternoon as the boundary layer saturates...mostly towards Washington County. Previous discussion... High pressure will continue to build across the region early today and then move off the New england coast this afternoon. Expect abundant sunshine across the region today. After a chilly start this morning, temperatures will climb to near seasonal levels this afternoon. Highs will range from the upper 50s to near 60 degrees across the north and lower 60s downeast. After a mainly clear start this evening, clouds will begin to increase tonight. A few showers are possible by daybreak as a weak weather system crosses the region from the west. Light southwest winds and increasing clouds will result in a milder night than the past few nights. Lows will range from the mid 30s to near 40 degrees across the north and mid to upper 40s downeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper low across the northern Great Lakes will drop slowly south through the period. An occluded front is expected to lift across the region Tuesday. The models generally have an area of rain that weakens as it moves across the area Tuesday, so any steady rain will likely taper to scattered showers during the afternoon, especially across the western half of the CWA. In any event, it does not look like a major rain producer, with QPF on the order of a quarter inch of less for most areas. The front does hang up a bit toward the coast, so some steadier light rain may linger into Tue evening across Washington County, with isolated to scattered showers continuing into Tue night as some weak mid level disturbances work across the area. Temperatures Tuesday will be seasonable for late September with highs in the mid to upper 50s in far northern Maine to the mid 60s in the Bangor Region. Clouds will keep temperatures from dropping low enough for any frost concerns Tue night. Wednesday will remain on the cloudy side with a few showers as the old occlusion remains just offshore and a weak upper low remain to the northwest of the region. Temperatures will again be seasonable. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Uncertainty reigns supreme. An upper low in the Ohio Valley Wed evening will be the main driver of the weather across northern New England late this week into the weekend. The ECMWF drops the low in the Tennessee Valley and then lifts it back into the Ohio Valley over the weekend. The GFS takes the low into southern Pennsylvania at the end of the week and weakens it to an open trough that lifts across New England over the weekend. The majority of the GFS ensembles and the Canadian are more in line with the operational GFS. The ECMWF ensembles are more split, but some members do have a more progressive low. The differences are huge, as the operational ECMWF would be a dry forecast late in the week into the weekend, and a more GFS like solution would favor unsettled weather with bouts of showers right into the weekend. No major changes were made to the ongoing forecast based on the large amount of forecast uncertainty. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR expected through tonight. SHORT TERM: MVFR with pockets of IFR Tue as an area of rain moves across the area. Mostly MVFR Tue night, with improvement to VFR likely Wed. Forecast confidence is very low late in the week into the weekend. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels through tonight. SHORT TERM: The wind and seas will likely remain below small craft advisory levels through Wed morning. As the pressure gradient tightens Wednesday with low pressure south of the waters and high pressure to the north a small craft advisory might be needed for both wind and seas. Uncertainty increases late in the week as there are significant model differences, and there is the potential that a small craft advisory could be needed at some point late in the week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Duda/MCW Short Term...CB Long Term...CB Aviation...Duda/MCW/CB Marine...Duda/MCW/CB

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