Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 242035 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 435 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds across the region tonight into Tuesday. A warm front crosses the region Tuesday night through Wednesday. Low pressure will approach later Thursday into Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure is providing dry weather and clear skies for Northern Maine. Meanwhile, a departing low pressure system is bringing a band of high clouds south and east of I-95 and is helping to produce gusty northwesterly winds. As the high builds in tonight, winds will subside across the North. Given the cold, dry air mass in place and fresh snow cover, conditions will be favorable for strong radiational cooling. Low temperatures could drop below zero in the normally colder northern valleys tonight, with single digits above zero elsewhere in the North. Thinking some clouds will hang on in the Bangor region and Downeast, along with light northerly winds. This will keep lows tonight mainly in the teens above zero, with 20s at the Downeast coast. Mostly sunny skies expected across the region Monday, with highs in the 30s for most places.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure drifts northeast from the Gulf of Saint Lawrence Monday night while still ridging south across the forecast area. At the same time, an inverted trof will extend northward toward Nova Scotia from low pressure located well to the south. Expect mostly clear skies north, mostly clear/partly cloudy Downeast, Monday night. Moisture expands northward along the inverted trof Tuesday with increasing clouds across the forecast area. Could also have a chance of rain mostly during the afternoon. Moisture persists along the inverted trof Tuesday night while another system approaches from the west. Rain is likely across the forecast area Tuesday night, possibly mixed with snow across northern areas. Moisture persists Wednesday in advance of the system approaching from the west. Rain is likely again Wednesday, possibly mixed with snow early across northern areas. Precipitation totals Wednesday are still uncertain. Near normal, to slightly below normal, level temperatures are expected Tuesday. Above normal level temperatures are expected Wednesday.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The system will begin to cross the region Wednesday night with precipitation generally in the form of rain. Uncertainty exists regarding how quickly the system moves east Thursday. Moisture will also be drawn north from a system in the Mid-Atlantic region. Rain should persist Thursday, possibly mixing with snow across northern areas Thursday night. Uncertainty then increases Friday/Saturday regarding the eventual track of the Mid-Atlantic system. Precipitation chances Friday/Saturday will be dependent on the eventual track. Precipitation should diurnally trend toward a snow/rain mix, or snow, both Friday and Saturday nights. Otherwise, expect precipitation mostly in the form of rain. The system should exit across the Maritimes Sunday. Another system could begin to approach later Sunday. Above normal level temperatures are expected Thursday/Friday, with near normal level temperatures Saturday/Sunday.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR at all terminals tonight and through the day Monday. NW winds 10-15 kts, gusting to 25 kts in the north late this afternoon, becoming light and variable tonight. N-NW winds 5-10 kts at Downeast terminals through tonight. E-NE winds around 5 kts at Northern terminals and 5-15 kts at Downeast terminals on Monday. SHORT TERM: Monday night...VFR. North/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Tuesday...VFR early, then VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain. North/northeast winds around 10 knots. Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR. Snow and rain likely north, with rain likely Downeast. East/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable.. Wednesday...MVFR/IFR. Rain likely. East/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable. Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain likely. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. Thursday...VFR/MVFR, then MVFR/IFR. A chance of rain. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. Thursday night...MVFR/IFR. A chance of rain and snow north, with a chance of rain Downeast. Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Friday...MVFR/IFR with a chance of rain. North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: The Gale Warning for the outer waters has been downgraded to a Small Craft Advisory. Wind gusts are currently well below gale force and will remain there through tonight into early Monday. Wave heights will remain elevated on the outer waters tonight and Monday, reaching 6 to 10 feet. A few wind gusts could approach gale force on the outer waters once again later on Monday. SCA conditions on the intra-coastal waters tonight and through the day Monday. SHORT TERM: Gale force wind gusts are possible Monday night into Tuesday. Small craft advisory level conditions are then expected Tuesday night/Wednesday. Rain likely Tuesday into Wednesday.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ050>052.
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&& $$ Near Term...Clark Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...Clark/Norcross Marine...Clark/Norcross

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