Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KCAR 200744
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
344 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016
High pressure will build south of the region through Thursday. A
cold front will cross the region on Friday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Quiet weather is expected today and tonight as high pressure
builds in at the surface. An upper low will continue to move out
over the Canadian Maritimes today, placing northern New England in
northwest flow. A couple of weak shortwaves will traverse through
this flow, one early this morning and another late this afternoon.
The main effect from these should be some cloud cover, especially
across the north. Can`t rule out a stray shower or two over the
higher terrain in the North Woods this afternoon, as is suggested
by a majority of the guidance. It`ll be breezy again this
afternoon with gusts to 30 mph. Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny
skies are expected with highs in the mid 70s north and around 80
south; a bit cooler along the immediate coast. Skies will clear
out tonight as temperatures drop into the mid and upper 50s.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Initially fair and contd warmer for Thu with high temps xcdng 80
deg most low trrn places inland from the immediate coast as an
open mid lvl ridge alf builds toward the FA from the SW. The first
in series of weak meso s/wvs will begin to impact msly wrn ptns of
the FA later Thu aftn with a chc of shwrs and tstms. Other s/wvs
Thu ngt flatten the ridge and bring additional shwrs and tstms to
msly the N hlf of the FA. A more well defined mid lvl s/wv from
cntrl Can with an associated cold front will bring additional...
msly aftn shwrs and tstms on Fri with ptly to msly cldy skies.
Max PoPs...in the high likely range...will be msly across the NW
hlf of the FA where fcst QPF is greatest. To erly attm to mention
enhanced tstm element wording given some uncertainty still with
the tmg of the cold front, with SPC not highlighting a specific
svr threat attm, but something to watch with max potential SBCAPE
upwards to 1500 J/KG late Fri ovr the NW hlf of the FA depending
on whether the region gets enough sunshine to reach cnvctv temps
of lower to mid 80s.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
One round of shwrs/tstms will move E of the region ovrngt fri ngt
as the first sig s/wv moves E of the region, then another s/wv
from cntrl Can may bring additional shwrs and possible aftn tstms
for Sat, with less potential aftn CAPE due to cooler hi temps.
any remaining shwrs should move E of the region Sat eve with the
passage of the s/wv E of the region, with fair skies and drier
conditions returning to the region late Sat ngt and Sun.
Fair skies Sun eve will give way to increasing clds again late Sun
ngt as another s/wv trof apchs from the great lks...bringing more
in the way of mainly aftn shwrs and possible tstms Mon, contg into
Mon ngt and lingering across the N Tue morn before exiting by Tue
eve. Hi temps will cont msly abv avg thru this ptn of the fcst.
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will prevail today and tonight. A
scattered to broken mid/high cloud deck will dominate much of
today, particularly across the north. Skies then clear out
overnight tonight. Northwest winds gusting to 30 mph are likely
SHORT TO LONG TERM: Mainly VFR all TAF sites, xcpt briefly lower
with tstms or heavier shwrs Fri and Sat and perhaps IFR attms at
KBHB with patchy coastal fog late Thu ngt into Fri morn.
NEAR TERM: No headlines will be needed through tonight. Winds will
increase a bit this afternoon, but should remain 15-20 kt, below
Small Craft Advisory levels. Seas will start out around 2 ft this
morning, but should build a bit to 2-4 ft. Conditions will subside
SHORT TO LONG TERM: Initially no hdlns, then seas rising to low
end SCA wv hts Fri into Fri eve with a steady SSW wind fetch of
15 to 20 kt. Aftwrds, winds and wvs slowly subside late Fri ngt
thru the weekend. Otherwise, marine fog could be an issue late Thu
ngt into Fri ngt as warm and humid air ovrns the cold SSTs of the
Nrn Gulf of ME. Only went with about 75 to 80 percent of WW3 wv
guidance for fcst wv hts, and this may be generous for the Fri
into Fri ngt tm frame given high wind bias WW3 has this tm of
season utilizing GFS wind speeds.