Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 221959 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 259 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY AND MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING THEN MOVE TO THE EAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT PASS TO THE WEST. WILL BLEND THE NAM12... GFS40 AND THE ECMWF FOR THE POP... SKY AND QPF GRIDS AS THESE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAIN CONCERN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT TO SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS REGARDING THIS TRACK, THOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE 12Z GFS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS IT SEEMED TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE DETAILS. THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO MAINLY DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS IS A FAST-MOVING SYSTEM, SO THE SNOW WOULD START LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY WINDING DOWN SUNDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WOULD OCCUR SATURDAY EVENING, ROUGHLY 6PM TO 12PM, AS A DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPS ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. THICKNESS PROFILES INDICATE THERE COULD BE A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW OVER INTERIOR DOWNEAST, BUT THIS WOULD BE VERY SHORT- LIVED WITH ONLY VERY MINOR AMOUNTS OF ICE, IF IT OCCURS AT ALL. THE SNOWFALL TOTAL FORECAST IS TOUGH AS IT DEPENDS HIGHLY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND SETS UP. IT`LL BE A TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THIS BAND, SO JUST A FEW MILES` DIFFERENCE IN THE STORM`S TRACK COULD MAKE OR BREAK ANY ONE LOCATION`S SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING DOWNEAST, WHICH MEANS RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX IN AT SOME POINT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. ALL THAT BEING SAID, HAVE STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A 6-10 INCH SWATH ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VANCEBORO TO SPRINGFIELD TO HOLDEN LINE; COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE MORE LIKE 3-6 INCHES OWING TO RAIN MIXING IN. THE HEAVIEST TOTALS WILL BE OVER INTERIOR WASHINGTON COUNTY WHERE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. NORTH OF THIS LINE THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY; PLACES SUCH AS HOULTON, MILLINOCKET, AND DOVER-FOXCROFT COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES WHILE CARIBOU, PATTEN, AND GREENVILLE MAY ONLY GET AN INCH OR SO. FOR SUNDAY...THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA WITH COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND IT. SO ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING AND SKIES CLEARING OUT, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EARLY NEXT WEEK OUR FOCUS WILL BE ON ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL AGAIN TAKE A SOUTHERN TRACK FAVORING SNOW ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DOWNEAST LATE AT NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY POSSIBLY SPREADING SNOW ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS PARTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COLD. SNOW MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AREA INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS LIKE A COLD, DRY POWDERY SNOW RIGHT DOWN TO THE COAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST AND AWAY ON TUESDAY. ANY SLIGHT STRENGHENING OR TRACKING FURTHER NORTH OF THE STORM COULD EFFECT EASTERN AREAS OF NORTHERN MAINE. A TRACK FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH THE ECMWF FAVORS, WOULD KEEP THE WHOLE AREA MAINLY DRY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE COLD AND DRY. A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS UP NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER MAY THEN APPROACH THURSDAY NIGHT TO BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS, BUT GENERALLY EXPECT VFR THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THEREAFTER AT KBGR AND KBHB AS SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW SPREADS OVER THE REGION. IFR WILL BE LIKELY 21Z SAT THROUGH 12Z SUN AT THESE SITES IN MODERATE SNOW, WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN FROM TIME TO TIME. FURTHER NORTH, MVFR SHOULD PREVAIL, THOUGH CAN`T RULE OUT IFR, ESPECIALLY AT KHUL. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS LOCAL NORTHERLY WIND WAVE (3 FEET/5 SECONDS) ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY LONG PERIOD SWELL SYSTEM (1-2 FEET/8-9 SECONDS) COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. LIKE NAM WIND SPEEDS SO WILL USE THE SWAN/NAM FOR WAVES. SHORT TERM: HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BUILD TO GALE FORCE SATURDAY EVENING AND REMAIN SO INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 25 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY AND ISSUE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MIGNONE SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...MIGNONE/HASTINGS MARINE...MIGNONE/HASTINGS

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