Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 271631 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1231 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING WITH IT COLDER TEMPERATURES.&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1230 PM UPDATE... ONLY A FEW CU AND HIGH THIN CLOUDS HERE AND THERE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL AS EXPECTED. ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF JAMES BAY LATER TODAY THEN MOVE ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS LOW WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATE TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THIS TODAY OR TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP POPS AT ZERO. FOR SKY CONDITIONS HAVE USED MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLENDED THE GFS AND ECMWF. BASE ON LATEST VERIFICATION WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT AND THE BIAS CONSENSUS MOS FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... ONE MORE WARM, NEAR RECORD SETTING DAY COMING UP FOR SUNDAY AND THEN COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY AND LASTING INTO LATE WEEK. HIGH PRES WILL BE SE OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND 925MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH 18-20C WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AOA RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 28TH. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS APPROACH TOWARD NORTHERN MAINE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON W/INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT W/SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED W/THE FROPA. MOST OF THE QPF IS SHOWN BY THE NAM/GFS AND EVEN THE ECMWF TO BE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT W/DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY 40-50% POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE INTERESTING PART TO THIS FORECAST IS THAT THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE S ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY W/HIGH PRES NOSING DOWN FROM CANADA. A DECENT AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION & GOOD UPPER SUPPORT. DECIDED TO GO W/HIGH CHANCE(50-60%) POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THE SETUP LOOKS TO BE AN OVERRUNNING EVENT W/ENE WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND SSW ALOFT. THIS WILL MEAN SHOWERS/RAIN INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ATTM DECIDED TO KEEP QPF NO HIGHER THAN 0.10-0.20" AND LET THE DAYCREW ASSESS FURTHER TODAY W/THE LATER MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE LEAST 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE ENE WINDS ON MONDAY WILL ADD A DAMP CHILL TO THE LATE SEPTEMBER AIR. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM QUEBEC STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL W/READINGS RUNNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE DOWNEAST IS EXPECTED TO SEE LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT UNFOLDS FROM THE LOW PRES SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND DRIFT NNE. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS SYSTEM BRINGING SOME RAIN TO THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND REGION BY FRIDAY. THIS IS STILL A WAYS OUT AND DECIDED TO STAY W/LOW CHANCE POPS(20-30%). THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS THIS FURTHER AS WE CLOSE IN ON THE POSSIBLE EVENT. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SOUTH THIS MORING DUE TO PATCHY FOG... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AND THEN EXPANDING DOWN ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS COULD SEE VFR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE KBGR AND KBHB COULD HANG ON TO MVFR RIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE DUE TO AN ENE FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WILL USE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES: WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING EXPECT LIGHT WINDS SO WAVES DOMINATED BY INCOMING LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEMS. PRIMARY WAVE GROUP FROM SOUTH 1-2 FEET/ 7-8 SECONDS WITH SECONDARY GROUP FROM SOUTHEAST 1 FOOT/9-10 SECONDS. SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE WATERS AND NE WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT. DECIDED TO GO W/SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND GUSTS TO 25 KTS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE PROLONGED NE FETCH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD AS WELL TO NEAR SCA LEVELS. AFTER COLLABORATION W/GYX, DECIDED TO BOOST THE SEAS UP TO 6 FT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...JORDAN/MIGNONE SHORT TERM...HEWITT LONG TERM...HEWITT AVIATION...JORDAN/MIGNONE/HEWITT MARINE...JORDAN/MIGNONE/HEWITT

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