Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 200744 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 344 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build south of the region through Thursday. A cold front will cross the region on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Quiet weather is expected today and tonight as high pressure builds in at the surface. An upper low will continue to move out over the Canadian Maritimes today, placing northern New England in northwest flow. A couple of weak shortwaves will traverse through this flow, one early this morning and another late this afternoon. The main effect from these should be some cloud cover, especially across the north. Can`t rule out a stray shower or two over the higher terrain in the North Woods this afternoon, as is suggested by a majority of the guidance. It`ll be breezy again this afternoon with gusts to 30 mph. Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny skies are expected with highs in the mid 70s north and around 80 south; a bit cooler along the immediate coast. Skies will clear out tonight as temperatures drop into the mid and upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Initially fair and contd warmer for Thu with high temps xcdng 80 deg most low trrn places inland from the immediate coast as an open mid lvl ridge alf builds toward the FA from the SW. The first in series of weak meso s/wvs will begin to impact msly wrn ptns of the FA later Thu aftn with a chc of shwrs and tstms. Other s/wvs Thu ngt flatten the ridge and bring additional shwrs and tstms to msly the N hlf of the FA. A more well defined mid lvl s/wv from cntrl Can with an associated cold front will bring additional... msly aftn shwrs and tstms on Fri with ptly to msly cldy skies. Max PoPs...in the high likely range...will be msly across the NW hlf of the FA where fcst QPF is greatest. To erly attm to mention enhanced tstm element wording given some uncertainty still with the tmg of the cold front, with SPC not highlighting a specific svr threat attm, but something to watch with max potential SBCAPE upwards to 1500 J/KG late Fri ovr the NW hlf of the FA depending on whether the region gets enough sunshine to reach cnvctv temps of lower to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... One round of shwrs/tstms will move E of the region ovrngt fri ngt as the first sig s/wv moves E of the region, then another s/wv from cntrl Can may bring additional shwrs and possible aftn tstms for Sat, with less potential aftn CAPE due to cooler hi temps. any remaining shwrs should move E of the region Sat eve with the passage of the s/wv E of the region, with fair skies and drier conditions returning to the region late Sat ngt and Sun. Fair skies Sun eve will give way to increasing clds again late Sun ngt as another s/wv trof apchs from the great lks...bringing more in the way of mainly aftn shwrs and possible tstms Mon, contg into Mon ngt and lingering across the N Tue morn before exiting by Tue eve. Hi temps will cont msly abv avg thru this ptn of the fcst. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will prevail today and tonight. A scattered to broken mid/high cloud deck will dominate much of today, particularly across the north. Skies then clear out overnight tonight. Northwest winds gusting to 30 mph are likely this afternoon. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Mainly VFR all TAF sites, xcpt briefly lower with tstms or heavier shwrs Fri and Sat and perhaps IFR attms at KBHB with patchy coastal fog late Thu ngt into Fri morn. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No headlines will be needed through tonight. Winds will increase a bit this afternoon, but should remain 15-20 kt, below Small Craft Advisory levels. Seas will start out around 2 ft this morning, but should build a bit to 2-4 ft. Conditions will subside overnight. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Initially no hdlns, then seas rising to low end SCA wv hts Fri into Fri eve with a steady SSW wind fetch of 15 to 20 kt. Aftwrds, winds and wvs slowly subside late Fri ngt thru the weekend. Otherwise, marine fog could be an issue late Thu ngt into Fri ngt as warm and humid air ovrns the cold SSTs of the Nrn Gulf of ME. Only went with about 75 to 80 percent of WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts, and this may be generous for the Fri into Fri ngt tm frame given high wind bias WW3 has this tm of season utilizing GFS wind speeds. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Hastings Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Hastings/VJN Marine...Hastings/VJN

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