Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 241343 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 943 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracks well south of the state late tonight. High pressure then builds in Tue night through Wednesday night. The next cold front crosses the state Thursday evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 915 AM update... Did not make many changes this period. Tweaked POPs and QPF a bit between 18z today and 06z Tue to raise them a touch Downeast. Increased clouds initially across the entire CWA to better match with slightly faster progression of high overcast compared to what was in the grids. Prev discussion below... Current surface analysis shows main low pressure over Lake Ontario with subsequent low near the Delmarva. Strongest pressure falls occurring with southern low pressure and frontal boundary extending northeastward south of Long Island. Widespread area of heavy rain occurring with both systems with widespread thunder associated with mid-Atlantic low. Heavy rain and thunder associated with northern system as well but this is likely due in part to RRQ of jet streak along with upper low digging into the Great Lakes. So what impact wl these systems hv on our area. First off, our wx conts to be controlled by sfc high with quite a bit of dry air noted on 00z CAR raob. All hires models are indicating far nrn zones (ie St. John Vly) rmn dry as system brings rain to the region late this aftn and tonight. Surface low tracks off the mid-Atlantic coast this PM. NAM is the outlier and brings surface low into Gulf of Maine tonight. RAP, EC, GFS, GEM and Hires ARW, including all GFS ensemble members, keep it further to the south. Thus have gone gone with high chance pops rather than likely due to significant discrepancies between models with QPF. GFS and EC keep system far enough south of the region to warrant just scattered POPs while NAM warrants bringing higher pops in. The problem with the NAM solution is that it is deeper with upper trough as it ejects into New England tonight vs all medium range guidance and also deeper with surface low, in addition to being further north. Have worded precip today as stratiform rain and showers tonight as upper level trough approaches. Very little indication that rain will be heavy today or tonight with most of the precip likely falling across southwestern Maine. As for temps, expect maxes to be below normal today with cloudy conditions. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Models continue their drying trend for Tuesday. Low pressure will move by to the south of the Gulf of Maine, allowing high pressure to remain nosed into northern Maine. Kept slight chance/low chance PoPs for Tuesday morning as guidance does show at least a few showers around, though there`s disagreement on exactly where. However, QPF has been lowered to just a hundredth or two for the morning hours. Once any showers move out, skies will clear from north to south. As such, expect northern Maine will see the warmest temps, with highs in the lower to perhaps mid 70s. Central and Downeast will top out in the upper 60s to around 70. High pressure will reestablish its hold Tuesday night and Wednesday, leading to mostly clear skies and fair weather. Lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s Tuesday night, and wouldn`t be surprised to see a bit of river valley fog, especially in the North Woods. Temperatures will rebound nicely on Wednesday with plenty of sunshine; highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with coastal areas a little cooler. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A frontal boundary will cross the state Thursday and Thursday night, bringing the chance for showers along with a few thunderstorms. Some of the guidance shows the front will hang up along the coast Friday and may spark a few more showers Downeast that day. As is usually the case, the GFS and ECMWF show fairly significant differences for the weekend; the GFS builds high pressure and dry weather behind the front, while the ECMWF develops a low off of Cape Cod and then moves it just to our south, keeping the threat of rain for southern areas. Have gone with slight chance PoPs for Downeast areas accordingly. Temperatures will be seasonable through the week, with highs in the 70s to around 80 and lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR for all terminals Monday. Expect sct-bkn cirrus north of HUl. BGR and BHB little more uncertain regarding northern extent of rain next 24 hours. Have brought in vcsh to BGR and BHB this afternoon with -shra between 22z and 05z, before diminishing. BHB looks to be impacted by MVFR twd end of taf valid time but uncertain on how far north cigs make it so hv not brought MVFR into BGR. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected to prevail 12z Tuesday to 12z Thursday. A few showers will be around early Tuesday, with MVFR conditions possible in any rain. Local IFR will be possible 06z-12z Wednesday in patchy fog. A cold front will cross the state from north to south Thursday into Thursday night, producing showers and thunderstorms. These will move out of the area by 12z Friday or shortly thereafter. VFR conditions should prevail Thursday and Friday, but MVFR or even IFR will be possible in any precipitation. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Surface low pressure will cross well south of the waters late tonight. Wind gusts may approach 20kts on the outer waters this evening until daybreak but confidence is too low to hoist an SCA. Seas will range from 2-4 feet into Tue morning. SHORT TERM: No headlines are anticipated through mid week as both winds and waves will remain below Small Craft conditions. Low pressure will cross south of the waters Tuesday morning, which will allow winds to approach 20 kt with 2-4 ft seas. High pressure will build across the region thereafter, so expect both winds and seas to subside. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Farrar/Kredensor Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Hastings Aviation...Farrar/Kredensor/Hastings Marine...Farrar/Kredensor/Hastings is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.