Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 161353 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 853 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will move across Nova Scotia today and into the Gulf of St Lawrence on Friday. Weak high pressure will build from the west Friday night and Saturday. Low pressure from central Canada will move east toward the Gaspe Peninsula on Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Update...Snow is winding down in the Down East region with the last inch or two falling. Will leave the warnings and advisories in place for now. Otherwise, cloudy skies with some snow showers towards the eastern border as the storm wraps back to the west. Winds will pick up as the storm intensifies in the Canadian Maritimes and will continue tonight and Friday. previous discussion Latest surface analysis shows 977mb low just to the south of the southwest tip of Nova Scotia. Radar shows snow is falling across all of downeast Maine. The back edge of the snow shield extends from the Bangor region northeast to around Houlton. The low will continue to track northeast today with the steady snow ending across downeast areas by midday. The current winter storm warnings and advisories for downeast areas remain up into early this afternoon. However, will probably be able to start dropping some of the remaining headlines a little later this morning. Otherwise expect a mainly cloudy day with scattered snow showers this afternoon, mainly across northern areas and the St John Valley. Northwest winds will gust as high as 30 mph this afternoon. Highs today will range from the low to mid 20s north and mid 20s to around 30 downeast. Low pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to lift across the Canadian Maritimes overnight. Expect mainly cloudy skies and the chance of a snow shower across northern areas along with continued gusty northwest winds. Lows will range from the mid to upper teens.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Whats left of any sn shwrs across msly Nrn ptns of the FA will be winding down as the sfc/upper low ovr the Ern Maritimes conts to slowly move E into the open N Atlc with cont`d brisk NW winds with gusts up to 30 mph. Clrg skies and diminishing winds are then xpctd by Fri ngt as a weak ridge of high pres apchs from Ern Can. Aft the sfc hi moves E of thew region Sat morn, a warm front will bring some cldnss, flurries, and perhaps isold to sct sn shwrs to msly Nrn ptns of the region Sat aft. Aft a break Sat eve, an upper lvl trough will bring another chc of sn shwrs to msly Nrn ptns of the region Sun into Sun eve, but not before temps rise abv fzg for hi temps across all lower trrn lctns Sun aftn, with bl temps perhaps warm enough for rn to mix with any sn shwrs across the N. Temps then cool again behind a secondary cold front crossing the region late Sun ngt. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... For now, the long term looks to be msly fair and dry, and aft a cool brisk day Mon, milder temps for Tue and Wed. At this tm, the earliest any sig precip would likely arrive would be late week with sig arrival tm model spread among different long range models. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR conditions can be expected through mid morning for KBGR/KBHB in snow. Expect conditions to improve to VFR later this morning as the snow ends. Across the northern terminals, expect overcast MVFR ceilings and sct snow showers through tonight. SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR xpctd across the TAF sites xcpt intervals of MVFR clgs and ocnl vsbys with any sn shwrs across msly Nrn TAF sites. && .MARINE...
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Update...Extended the gale into Friday morning. While gale conditions may be somewhat sporadic today, winds will increase again tonight into Friday morning. NEAR TERM: A Gale warning remains up through this afternoon for the outer waters and a small craft advisory is up for the intra coastal zone. Small craft advisory conditions can be expected tonight with a few gusts to 35 kts possible at times. Visibilities will be reduced to 1 to 3 nm in snow this morning, then improve by afternoon. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Initially strong SCA conditions xpctd across our waters Fri with lgt fzg spy, subsiding to below SCA Fri ngt and Sat. No definitive SCA conditions xpctd Sat ngt into erly next week. Kept close to WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MEZ011-015-032. Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MEZ016- 017-029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ052. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ050-051.
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&& $$ Near Term...Duda/MCW Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Duda/MCW/VJN Marine...Duda/MCW/VJN

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