Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 160929 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 429 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACK ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER US THIS MORNING AND THEN SHIFT TO OUR EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TREK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. FOR TODAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW MARINE MOISTURE TO MAKE ITS WAY ON SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND EXPECT DOWNEAST REGIONS TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. HOWEVER, A LOOK AT THE THICKNESS PROFILES INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME RISING ABOVE FREEZING. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT, PERHAPS EVEN JUST DRIZZLE. FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA, JUST EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLAKES FALLING OUT OF THE SKY THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S. FOR TONIGHT...WARM ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PRIMARY LOW DRAWS NEAR. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH THE BULK HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGAIN, THICKNESS PROFILES INDICATE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILLS START OFF AS A WINTRY MIX ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT COASTAL REGIONS WHICH WILL STAY WARM ENOUGH TO SEE JUST PLAIN RAIN. IT WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN UP, SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE OR SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT; LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST, MID 30S ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WE ISSUED A WNTR STM WATCH FOR NW AND FAR NE ME FOR WED INTO THUS AFTN. MODELS APPEARED IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM APCHG FROM THE GREAT LKS...WITH THE BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS A LITTLE FURTHER S WITH THE SECONDARY LOW...AND THE CVRG OF LLVL COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATER WED NGT INTO THU MORN WHEN EVEN SRN PTNS OF THE REGION COULD SEE A CHG OVR TO ALL SN. DESPITE THE MODELS TRENDING COLDER...MOST INDICATE A WARM LAYER ALF BEING PRESENT WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP ON WED...MEANING THAT EVE NRN...WITH THE POSSIBLE XCPTN OF FAR NRN ME...WILL EXPERIENCE MIXED PRECIP UNTIL ERLY WED EVE...THEN CHG OVR FROM NW TO SE AS BOTH SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR AT THE SFC AND ALF IS ADVCTD SEWRD WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVG OVR COASTAL DOWNEAST MAINE. FCST TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO BE GENEROUS...IN THE BALL PARK OF 0.75 TO 1.10 INCHES...BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF LIQ EQUIV EXPERIENCED WITH LAST WEEKS STORM. THIS MEANS THAT NEARLY ALL SN WOULD HAVE TO BE EXPERIENCED TO RECEIVE 10 INCHES... WITH PERHAPS ONLY THE FAR NW ACHIEVING THIS. SNFL AMOUNTS WILL LESSEN FURTHER SE WITH MORE OF THE PRECIP TAKEN UP BY SLEET OVR THE REST OF THE WATCH AREA AND EVEN RN OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS BEFORE THE CHGOVR OCCURS LATER WED NGT OR ERLY THU MORN. STEADY SNFL WILL WIND DOWN AS SN SHWRS OVR DOWNEAST MAINE BY MIDDAY AND NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE THUS AFTN...WITH SCT SHWRS ENDING OVR DOWNEAST BY THU EVE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SN SHWRS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE FA OVRNGT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER E THRU THE CAN MARITIMES. AFT A FEW MRNG SN SHWRS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE N FRI MORN...SKIES MAY BECOME PTLY CLDY DURG THE AFTN...SPCLY THE S HLF OF THE REGION AS CAN HI PRES APCHS THE REGION FROM ONT PROV. THIS AIRMASS WILL ALSO NOT BE ARCTIC IN ORIGIN...MORE LIKE CONTINENTAL POLAR...SO TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE ABV NORMAL FRI. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING POSSIBLE FRI NGT AS THE SFC HI SETTLES OVR NW ME BY 12Z SAT... OTHERWISE...MCLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES XPCTD SAT AS THE SFC HI CRESTS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHC OF PRECIP WILL BE MSLY LATER SUN NGT INTO MON AS S/WV ENERGY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS APCHS THE REGION. GIVEN THE UNORGANIZED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...FOR NOW WE MENTION A CHC OF SN SHWRS FOR THIS PD...BUT THIS COULD CHG AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS TM FRAME. TEMPS WILL CONT MSLY A LITTLE ABV AVG...WITH NO ARCTIC AIR MASSES IMMEDIATELY IN SITE. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS OF 1500-2500 FT WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AT KBHB AND KBGR. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. EXCEPT FOR KBHB WHICH WILL SEE RAIN, PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN. SHORT TO LONG TERM: CLGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO IFR WITH THE ONSET OF MIXED PRECIP N AND MSLY RN DOWNEAST ON WED. IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT WED NGT WITH MIXED PRECIP AND RN CHGNG TO ALL SN FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION. IFR CONDITIONS IN SN WILL CONT INTO THU WHILE DOWNEAST SITES RECOVER TO MVFR IN SN/RN SHWRS...FOLLOWED BY MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS IN SN SHWRS NRN TAF SITES THU NGT INTO FRI MORN WHILE DOWNEAST SITES RECOVER TO VFR. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN BE VFR FRI AFTN THRU SAT. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY, KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTH NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE MAINE COAST. WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH 25 KT LATE TONIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE HIGHEST WINDS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM: WE WILL LIKELY NEED AN SCA FOR OUR WATERS WED THRU THU...WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF THE LOW WED AFTN AND AGAIN BEHIND THE LOW ON THU. GIVEN THAT THE EVENT IS STILL TWO PDS OUT...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING THE SCA THIS UPDATE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>004. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN

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