Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 250504 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1204 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WEST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... MIDNIGHT UPDATE... ALL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING NOW, THOUGH MANY AREAS NOT BY MUCH. HAD TO COOL OFF TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COAST, WHERE TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. EXCEPT TEMPS TO STEADILY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO MIX DOWN AND WARM THINGS UP. A DEFINITE BACK EDGE TO THE STEADY RAIN IS PRESENT ON RADAR, WITH RAIN PRESENTLY LIGHTENING UP IN BANGOR AND GREENVILLE AND THE BACK EDGE ADVANCING EAST. WE HAVE 100 PERCENT PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND OPTED TO KEEP THE 100 PERCENT CHANCES GIVEN THAT DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST. EXPECT THE STEADIER RAIN TO MOVE BACK IN AROUND DAYBREAK FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DID, HOWEVER, REMOVE HEAVY AT TIMES WORDING FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THAT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WE DID DROP THE REMAINING PTN OF THE FZRA ADV. MOST LCTNS OVR THE NW AND FAR NE WERE ABV FZG. LITTLE IF ANY ICE ACCRETION IS BEING OBSVD WITH THE FEW LCTNS AOB FZG...WITH FCST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING A VERY LARGE ABV FZG LAYER XTNDG UPWARDS TO 750-800MB OVR A NEAR FZG LAYER XTNDG ONLY 100-200FT ABV THE SFC. OVR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HRS...EVERY LCTN OVR THE OLD ADV AREA WILL BE ABV FZG AT THE SFC. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH FCST QPF OVRNGT INTO THU WITH RNFL...SO NO CHGS IN EARLIER ISSUED FLOOD WATCH. OTHERWISE...WITH MODELS FCSTG A LLVL JET TO REACH 50 TO 60 KTS INTERSECTING SW TO NE ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST BEGINNING LATE TNGT WE ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR OUR COASTAL ZONES. INITIALLY... STRONGER WIND GUSTS LATE TNGT WILL BE LMTD TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SPCLY HIER TRRN LATE TNGT OVR THE WIND ADV AREA...WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS DESCENDING TO LOWER TRRN DURING THE DAY THU AS LLVL LAPSE RATES INCREASE WITH THE APCH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WIND GUSTS OVR THE REST OF THE FA COULD APCH WIND ADV CRITERIA LATER THU INTO THU EVE...SO WE CANNOT RULE OUT EXPANDING THE WIND ADV NWRD DURG THIS TM. LASTLY...TEMPS WILL INITIALLY SLOWLY RISE THRU THE OVRNGT...WITH MAX TEMPS THU MORN INTO MIDDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST ALG THE E SLOPES OF HIER TRRN XTNDG NE TO SW ACROSS THE FA WHERE VERY SHALLOW LLVL COOL AIR DAMMING COULD HOLD ON. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL PRIOR TO SUNSET. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS LABRADOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S DOWN EAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S NORTH AND UPPER 20S DOWN EAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND SRN QUEBEC. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE ERN SEABOARD INTO SRN MAINE. BY SUN MRNG THE LOW MOVES NE INTO ERN QUEBEC/NW MAINE...THE FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE WRN MAINE MOUNTAINS...INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. BY SUN EVNG THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF MAINE. A LOW OVER NRN QUEBEC...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH SRN QUEBEC. BY MON MRNG THE TROUGH MOVES INTO NRN MAINE. BY MON EVNG THE GEM/ECMWF INDICATE A LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE NC COAST...THE GFS SHOWS A LOW OFF THE COAST OF SC AND A WEAK LOW OVER NRN NY. TUES MRNG THE GFS MOVES THE LOW FROM OVER NRN NY TO SW NOVA SCOTIA. THE GEM/ECMWF SHOWS THEIR LOWS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC EAST OF NJ. BY TUE EVNG THE GFS SHOWS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT OVER MAINE...WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING SW FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF SHOWS A LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH IT PCPN BAND EXTENDING INTO CNTRL MAINE. WED MRNG THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...AND THE FRONT PUSHES INTO WRN MAINE. THE ECMWF DEEPENS ITS LOW AND MOVES IT NORTH TO NOVA SCOTIA...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPED AROUND IT EXTENDING INTO NRN MAINE. THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT EAST BY WED EVNG...BUILDS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AC ACROSS MAINE. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW TO NEWFOUNDLAND...WITH WRAP AROUND PCPN EXTENDING BACK ACROSS MAINE. BY THE OF THE PERIOD...BOTH MODELS INDICATE HIGHER PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. LOADED THE SUPERBLEND. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: GENERALLY IFR TONIGHT IN RAIN, DRIZZLE, LOW CLOUDS, AND FOG. LOCAL MVFR, BUT PREDOMINANTLY WE WILL BE SEEING IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR AT MOST LOCATIONS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR MOST PLACES BEHIND THE FRONT. SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IFR/MVFR IS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS AND WAVES, HOWEVER, HAVE BEEN SLOW TO COME UP SO FAR, AND HAVE LOWERED THEM A BIT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE. STILL EXPECT SEAS AND WINDS TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT, THOUGH. SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... HEAVY RAINFALL RANGING FROM 1.25 TO 2.00 INCHES ON TOP OF A MELTING SNOWPACK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL AREAS...WHILE FURTHER NORTH...LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS IS POSSIBLE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH A STRONG SRLY WIND FETCH AND BUILDING WV HTS XPCTD WITH THE JUST AFT MDNGT HI TIDE TNGT...WE DID ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2 AM FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WV WASH- UP ABV THE MAX ASTRO TIDE MARK...WHICH COULD AFFECT A FEW LOW LYING ROADS ALG THE DOWNEAST COASTLINE. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY CHRISTMAS DAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH FOR BANGOR IS 54F. THIS IS WELL ABOVE THE RECORD HIGH OF 51F...SET IN 2003. AT CARIBOU...THE RECORD HIGH IS 48F, ALSO SET IN 2003. WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING A HIGH OF NEAR 48F AT CARIBOU. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011- 015>017-031-032. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ029-030. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOISY/VJN SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...FOISY/DUDA MARINE...FOISY/DUDA HYDROLOGY...VJN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...VJN CLIMATE...VJN

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