Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 210115 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 915 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 9 PM UPDATE...MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER DOWNEAST AND RAISED DEW POINTS A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGED INTO THE AREA BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE EXITING TO THE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC...WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW BACK TO HUDSON BAY...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH...WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS SUPPORTING THE NEW LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY TUES MRNG THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST...AS THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO THE ERN LAKES...THE SUPPORTING TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SFC LOW MOVES SOUTH TO SRN PA...THE GFS/NAM SHOW A CLOSE LOW STACKED ABOVE THE SFC LOW...THE ECMWF/GEM SHOW AN OPEN TROUGH THAT IS ABOUT TO CLOSE OFF. TUES AFTERNOON THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SW COAST OF MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE WEATHER WILL EXTEND MOST OF THE REST OF THE STATE. THE GFS EXTENDS THE WEATHER INTO NRN MAINE...THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM TO AROUND MILLINOCKET. LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POPS THROUGH THIS FORECAST TERM. ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO SHOW A SHARPER GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE...WHERE DRIER AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH MAY RESULT IN VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE ST JOHN VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN JUST TO THE EAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL TRANSPORT WAVES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MAINE RIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 45-50 KTS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN EAST. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF DOWN EAST AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS DOWN EAST AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HYDRO HEADLINES YET BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR NECESSITY OF FLOOD WATCHES ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA RECENTLY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE LONG STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF CAPE COD THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH, THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OF THE PERIOD WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THEREAFTER AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. CAN`T REALLY RULE SHOWERS OUT COMPLETELY UNTIL MONDAY, WHEN A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH THE OVERNIGHTS RELATIVELY MILD DUE TO THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THEREFORE, DON`T EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY, SNOWFALL, EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. DECREASING CEILINGS TOMORROW. MVFR CONDITIONS BHB AND BGR LATE AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM: STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF MAINE THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RAIN AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. KFVE/KCAR/KPQI MAY REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THOUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS. BEST CHANCE OF IFR AT THESE TERMINALS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY TIME PERIOD WHEN HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED. KBGR/KBHB EXPECT MVFR/IFR TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF WIND DRIVEN RAIN ON GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. AL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR/MFVR AS STEADIES RAIN TAPER TO SHOWERS BY SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW GUST UP TO 45 KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM 6 TO 9 FT DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IN 1 TO 3 NM IN RAIN. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORTON/BLOOMER SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA MARINE...NORTON/DUDA

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