Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 191604 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1104 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak surface trough will cross the region today. High pressure builds into the area tonight and Friday. Another weak trough will cross the area Saturday and will be followed by high pressure Sunday into Monday. Low pressure will approach the region from the south late Tuesday and Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 11:00 AM Update...Snow over east central areas is diminishing and will taper off to snow showers and flurries by midday. Modified pops in these areas to cut back on snow coverage a bit more quickly. Also, lowered temps a couple degrees with cloud cover preventing much warming. Otherwise, no major changes this hour. Previous discussion... A shortwave trough is visible on water vapor satellite pictures moving through Quebec early this morning. The trough axis will move east of Maine by around midday. Areas of light snow across the eastern zones this morning will wind down to flurries or isolated snow showers by midday with any add`l accumulation an inch or less this morning. Clouds will give way to breaks of sunshine across the Down East Region by this afternoon, but stratus and stratocu will likely hang tough across much of the Crown of Maine into this evening. Temperatures this afternoon will be on the mild side for what climatologically is the coldest time of year. Expect highs to range from near 30 degrees in the Saint John Valley to the upper 30s in Bangor and near 40 degrees along the coast. Clear to partly cloudy Down East tonight with clouds to gradually give way to some breaks across northern areas later tonight. Lows will be a good 15 to 20 degrees above average, with lows mostly from the upper teens to mid 20s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Fairly quiet weather is expected for the end of the week as a ridge of high pressure will slowly build across eastern New England. This will result in partly to mostly cloudy skies both Friday and Saturday, along with warmer than normal temperatures. Once the ridge axis passes to our east on Saturday, expect moisture to lift northward as winds turn to the south. In spite of drier air aloft, this increasing moisture may be enough to spark a few light showers or drizzle over Downeast areas, so have added a slight chance of showers in these areas Saturday afternoon. Highs will range from the lower 30s in the Saint John Valley to the mid and upper 30s Downeast; Saturday will be the warmer of the two days for southern areas as temperatures look to approach 40 along the coast. Friday night`s lows will be in the mid and upper teens north and the lower to mid 20s south. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Next week will have a quiet start, but the focus will then turn to a potential mixed precipitation event for the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. High pressure will continue to dominate Sunday and Monday with fair weather and above normal temperatures. Then low pressure is progged to move from the mid-Atlantic eastward in the vicinity of the New England coast Monday night and Tuesday and eventually south of Nova Scotia on Wednesday. Warm air will stream northward out ahead of this low, spreading across Downeast Maine Monday night and then into northern areas on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Initially, the warm air will be forced upward over the cold air at the surface, but eventually it will be able to scour out the denser airmass and reach the surface. There are still some model differences as far as exact timing and placement of the warm air, but at this time a period of mixed precipitation looks likely late Monday night through Tuesday night. Temperatures will be mild enough for central and southern locations of our forecast area to change over to rain both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, roughly south of a Houlton to Greenville line. More northern areas will hang onto the wintry mix through a good portion of the event. The precipitation looks to taper off to showers on Wednesday as the low pulls away to our east. The devil remains in the details as just a slight shift in the low`s track or the northward extent of the warm air aloft could mean drastic changes in precipitation type and amounts. Changes will likely need to be made to the forecast as we draw closer to the event and model trends become more clear. Please stay tuned for later forecast updates on this developing situation. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR with pockets of IFR in -sn this morning. Conditions will improve to VFR by this afternoon at the Down East terminals with VFR tonight. MVFR will likely continue from KPQI north to KFVE this evening with improvement to VFR by Fri morning. SHORT TERM: MVFR ceilings will threaten the northern terminals much of the period, though a brief period of VFR is possible Friday afternoon and then again Sunday night into Monday. BGR and BHB meanwhile will likely remain VFR until after 00z Saturday, then expect ceilings to lower to MVFR through 12z Sun, with periods of IFR possible. Some light rain or drizzle is possible Saturday afternoon, which may restrict visibility to below 5SM at times. VFR should return Sunday afternoon, but ceilings will then again lower to MVFR after 12z Monday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through tonight. SHORT TERM: No headlines will be needed through the end of the week and into the weekend. High pressure will cross the waters, keeping both winds and seas well below Small Craft levels. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB/MCB Short Term...Hastings Long Term...Hastings Aviation...CB/Hastings Marine...CB/Hastings

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