Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 231027 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 627 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY, THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 620 AM UPDATE... INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING, AS STRATUS CONTINUES TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE MODELS INDICATE. ALSO, TWEAKED TEMPS, WINDS, AND DEW POINTS TO CURRENT CONDITIONS WITH ALL ELSE LEFT UNCHANGED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. EARLY THIS MORNING, WE HAVE PATCHY VALLEY RADIATION FOG OVER FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST MAINE WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. ELSEWHERE, THERE IS AN EXTENSIVE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MIDDAY. JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COULD SPARK SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA RUNNING FROM HOULTON AND CARIBOU SOUTHWEST TO THE MOOSEHEAD LAKE REGION. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AT ALL...JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND RUNNING MAINLY IN THE MID 70S. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FOR SUNDAY...THE POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE COAST WHERE UPPER 70S ARE FORECAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A LOW NORTH OF LABRADOR COULD SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE STATE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LAST COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER YET WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. FAIR SKIES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 60F. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AND HIGHS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FAR NORTHERN ZONES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE ST JOHN VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL EASE INTO NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AND PROVIDE THE THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S NORTH AND UPPER 80S FOR BANGOR AND LINCOLN. THE FRONT COULD BE A SLOW MOVER WITHOUT MUCH COOL AIR ADVECTION. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT LINGERING OVER THE STATE. THE MOVEMENT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FURTHER COMPLICATES THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GENERAL TREND FOR LATE WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING WITH VFR EVERYWHERE. VFR CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT OTHER THAN POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AGAIN. SHORT TERM: OUTSIDE OF PATCHY FOG NEAR SUNRISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES EXPECTED. IN SPITE OF WARMING TEMPERATURES...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOISY SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...FOISY/MCW MARINE...FOISY/MCW

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