Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 251133 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 633 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will slowly lift northwards across the area today. A cold front will cross the region later tonight. High pressure will build across the region later Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 630am update...Freezing rain and sleet has moved north of the area...leaving just freezing drizzle in the northern zones. Will maintain the end time for the advisory at 10am. Fog continues to creep northward and the biggest question for today will be the disposition of the Dense Fog Advisory. Today may be one of those rare days in this forecast area when the advisory is kept up all day...or at least renewed for later this afternoon into the evening. The arrival of the frontal rain should finally alleviate the situation later this evening. Previous discussion... Cold air advection in the north has stopped and the rest of the day and evening will feature the slow northward movement of a warm front into the forecast area. Behind this front to the south is very warm and humid air. Expect a very gradual warming due to cold air damming under a persistent frontal inversion. Will keep freezing rain in the forecast in northern Aroostook until mid to late morning. The moist southeast flow and warm air advection will likely cause a lot of very low clouds, fog and drizzle...especially in the upslope terrain of Piscataquis and north-central Penobscot counties. Have extended the Dense Fog Advisory until 10am and it may need to be evaluated for continuation in areas near the coast as well as Piscataquis County and north-central Penobscot County. Warming will arrive earlier for Bangor and most of the Down East region with highs reaching near 50F by late afternoon. These temperatures and dew points in the mid to upper 40s will accelerate snow melt in the Flood Watch area. The cold front will work its way into the forecast area Saturday night with temperatures and dew points still rising before midnight. In general, most areas are expected to receive a half to three quarters of an inch of rain. The front will move quickly across the area and that`s good news. On the other hand, with a sharp, negatively-tilted upper trough and the entrance region to a strong upper jet, the potential for locally heavy showers or even a thunderstorm will have to be monitored. Forecast soundings are showing instability aloft on Saturday night along the front. Did add mention of a slight chance of thunder in tonight`s forecast. The frontal precipitation will end as snow early Sunday morning with potential for a quick coating of a half-inch or less...mostly in the Allagash. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... An upper level trof will cross the region Sunday with mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of snow showers across the north/mountains. Expect a mostly cloudy morning with a partly cloudy afternoon across the remainder of the forecast area Sunday. Gusty west winds will occur across the entire region Sunday with gusts up to 30 to 35 mph. A cold front will approach northern portions of the forecast area later Sunday night with partly/mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of snow showers late. Partly cloudy/mostly clear skies are expected across the remainder of the region Sunday night. The cold front crosses the region Monday with mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of mostly morning snow showers across northern areas, with partly cloudy skies elsewhere across the region. High pressure then builds across the region Monday night. Temperatures will be at above normal levels Sunday/Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will cross the region Tuesday with a warm front approaching Tuesday night. Expect increasing clouds Tuesday night with a chance of snow late. Low pressure will approach from the southwest Wednesday drawing the warm front north across the region. Snow will transition to rain, from south to north, across the forecast area Wednesday. Accumulating snow is possible across mostly central/northern portions of the forecast area Wednesday before the transition to rain. The low will cross the region early Thursday with rain in advance of the low. The low exits across the maritimes later Thursday drawing colder air across the region. The rain should transition back to snow across mostly central and northern areas later Thursday before tapering to snow showers. Partly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of snow showers are expected across the region Friday. Temperatures will remain at above normal levels Tuesday through Thursday, with near normal level temperatures Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Dense fog will continue for BGR, BHB and most terminals south of HUL into the morning. Conditions may lift at BGR enough to exceed airfield mins by late morning, but will likely decrease to...or below a quarter mile again towards sunset through the evening. Elsewhere, freezing rain and drizzle will end north of HUL by late morning, but will be replaced by LIFR to VLIFR cigs and fog. LLWS will affect all terminals by later this afternoon into the evening. A cold front...with possible embedded thunder will cross after midnight and lift all terminals to VFR by daybreak Sunday. SHORT TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are possible Sunday, mostly across the north and mountains. West winds will gust up to 30 to 35 mph Sunday. VFR conditions are expected across the region Sunday night. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the north and mountains again Monday. Generally expect VFR conditions across the region Monday night through early Tuesday night, with MVFR conditions possibly starting to develop later Tuesday night. Conditions will lower to IFR/LIFR levels Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Fog is the primary concern with a warm humid air mass moving over the cold waters. Winds will pick up this afternoon but fall short of SCA criteria until late tonight behind a cold front. SHORT TERM: A Gale Watch has been issued for the waters from Sunday morning into the evening. Small craft advisory level conditions are then generally expected later Sunday night into Monday night. However, winds could approach gale levels Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... No changes to the Flood Watch were made with this forecast cycle. Snow melt from the deep snowpack continues through tonight with rainfall amounts of just over a half inch by Sunday morning. Water levels are starting to rise modestly on the river gauges on the Piscataquis and its branches, but the best response should be later Saturday night into Sunday. NERFC and ensemble river forecasts continue rises into Sunday morning, but nothing close to flood stages. The subtlety in the forecast is that the Piscataquis River is expected to rise some 4 feet at Dover-Foxcroft. The last estimate of ice thickness is just over a foot. This rise would likely sufficient to break the ice and cause some movement. Any movement means ice jams are a threat. While the rises are nearly three feet at Grindstone, ice thickness is greater and the odds of breaking up the ice are less. Thus the focus is now sharpened towards southern Piscataquis County. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Freezing Rain Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MEZ001>004. Flood Watch through Sunday evening for MEZ010-011-015>017-031- 032. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MEZ010-011- 015>017-029>032. MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...MCW Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...MCW/Norcross Marine...MCW/Norcross Hydrology...MCW

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