Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 310444 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1244 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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1230 AM UPDATE: WHATS LEFT OF THE EVE SHWRS IS SLIDING NWRD OUT OF THE FA THRU THE ALLAGASH AND ST JOHN RVR VLYS. OTHERWISE...WE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO CLD CVR TO INCORPORATE MCLDY CONDITIONS ACROSS DOWNEAST AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA ERLY THIS MORN AS LOW OCEAN ST HAS SETTLED OVR THESE PTNS OF THE FA. LASTLY...WE INCORPORATED LATEST MDNGT OBS FOR UPDATING THE FCST HRLY TEMP TREND TO FCST OVRNGT LOWS AND PRELIM WORK WAS DONE WITH POPS THU INTO THU EVE WITH THE UPCOMING CNVCTV EVENT FOR MSLY THE NW HLF OF THE FA. ORGNL DISC: WE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME FOG COULD PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A SMALL BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. CAPES ARE AVERAGING AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH IS WEAK TO MODERATE. HOWEVER, THE SHORTWAVE HAS STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS AND LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP SO THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS, THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONG SO ANY DOWNDRAFT CAN CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL EXISTS BECAUSE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXISTS BECAUSE OF THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WITH LESSER CHANCES DOWNEAST...WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. COULD HAVE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. THE DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME INSTABILITY SO WILL ALSO INCLUDE MENTION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY...SO WILL ALSO INCLUDE SHOWERS WITH THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. WILL INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS WITH SUPERBLEND. HAVE MADE SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND WEATHER GRIDS. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KBHB IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG THIS EVENING...AND IFR TO AT TIMES VLIFR WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE INTO KBGR OVERNIGHT. AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS PREDOMINATELY VFR...BUT PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG MAY INTERMITTENTLY LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR IN THUNDERSHOWERS OVER THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LIMIT VISIBILITIES. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT LIGHT WINDS WITH WAVE COMBINED SEAS DOMINATED SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEMS AROUND 2 FEET/7-8 SECONDS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS

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