Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KCAR 021047 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 647 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY THEN CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH MID MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER TODAY. GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THEN EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS FOLLOW BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS40 AND ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS HANDING THIS SCENARIO SO WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS USING BOTH MODELS FOR POPS... SKY COVER AND QPF. FOR TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL USE THE SUPERBLEND BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC PROVINCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT MONDAY. WILL USE THE SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS THIS PERIOD AND MAKE ONLY MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM IFR TO VLIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: BASED ON PERFORMANCE WITH BOUNDARY CONDITIONS WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THIS FETCH TO GENERATE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP (SOUTHERLY 3-4 FEET/7-8 SECONDS) FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO EXPECT THIS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO BETTER ADJUST WAVES TO BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. WILL USE INITIALIZE WITH WAVE WATCH III FRIDAY TO END OF PERIOD AND MAKE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.... THIS FETCH IS CONFINED TO COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SO WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 10 PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT TO END OF PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017- 029-030. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORCROSS SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.