Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 260400 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1200 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An occluded front will cross the area overnight through early Tuesday. High pressure builds in for late Tuesday. A cold front just north of the area Wednesday crosses the area Wednesday night and Thursday with unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Midnight update...An occluded front will work across the CWA overnight. There is a fairly extensive area of showers with isolated thunderstorms moving across the region. The steadiest of the shower activity will be tapering off across the western zones shortly, and along the NB border by daybreak. The highest rainfall total so far is 0.92" at Turner Brook in northern Somerset County, with amounts generally less than 1/2" for most areas so far. It looks like the threat of both severe weather and flooding is very low, but water will pond on roadways. Only minor tweaks to the ongoing forecast based primarily on the latest observations and the radar and near term model trends. Previous Discussion... Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms tonight as an occluded front crosses the area. Showers will increase from west to east through the evening, then taper off from west to east later in the night. Instability aloft actually increases through the evening and could see a few embedded storms, but nothing strong. Precipitable water values skyrocket to 1.5 to 2 inches through the evening, and with slow movement of cells, flooding is a little concern later in the evening and overnight. Some high res ensemble members generate very localized 2 to 3 inches of rain, which could fall in a few hours. Not too concerned about flash flooding, but a few spots may see enough to warrant some sort of advisory. Really anywhere in the area could see the heavier downpours, with a slightly greater chance Downeast. Most areas will see somewhere roughly 1/2 inch or a little less of rain, although a few spots, as mentioned before, will get a fair amount more. Fog is another concern tonight, mainly Downeast, where some visibilities to 1/2 mile and possibly lower are expected. The rain tapers off some later tonight, although a shortwave trough moving through in the morning hours with help keep some shower activity going Tuesday, especially over the north. Kept likely precip chances up north for Tuesday. Shortwave trough axis passes through by early afternoon, but daytime heating should compensate for this and keep the activity going into the afternoon. Don`t expect anything severe for Tuesday, although a few cells could have small hail. Another warm day Tuesday with highs mostly in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low pressure will move away from New England Tuesday Night. A cold front will approach from he northwest during the day Wednesday. This will result in showers and scattered thunderstorms during the day Wednesday, mainly across the north. Another cold front will move across the region Thursday as upper level low pressure passes to the the north resulting more showers. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Showers are expected to come to an end Thursday Night. Low pressure will pass to the south of the area Saturday, too far to the south to produce any precipitation. High pressure is then expected to build in across the region during the day Saturday. Showers are possible again during the day Sunday into Monday as another system approaches from the west. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR conditions will develop across the entire forecast area overnight with showers, isolated thunderstorms, low clouds and fog. Locally heavy rain is also possible overnight. The lowest conditions are generally expected toward the Downeast coast. Improving to VFR through the morning Tuesday. Showers/thunderstorms, most numerous across northern areas, are also expected into Tuesday afternoon with variable conditions. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Wednesday through Sunday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory levels overnight through Tuesday. Visibilities will be reduced in fog tonight into Tuesday morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are also expected overnight into Tuesday morning. SHORT TERM: Have used the NAM12 for winds. For waves: With wind speeds across the waters expected to be below 10 knots through most of this forecast period expected wave systems to primarily result from incoming low period southeasterly swell running around 2 feet/6-7 seconds.. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...CB/Foisy Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...CB/Foisy/Mignone Marine...CB/Foisy/Mignone is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.