Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 262258 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 558 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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555 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OUR WEST CENTRAL REGION, SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH WIND GUSTS CONTG TO SUBSIDE OVR THE NW AND FAR NE PTN OF THE FA THIS MID AFTN...WE DROPPED THE REMAINING PTN OF THE WIND ADV. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE TIL 5 PM EST OVR OPEN...HIGHER TRRN LCTNS SUCH AS KFVE AIRPORT... BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECOUPLE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM HIGHER WINDS ALF AFTR SUNSET AS THE BL BECOMES DEEPER AND BETTER ESTABLISHED. WINDS SHOULD EVEN BECOME RELATIVELY LGT LATER TNGT OVR BROAD VLY AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO GO FOR SIG LOWER OVRNGT LOW TEMPS...WITH TO LITTLE INVSN POTENTIAL ATTM. IN ADDITION TO LGT WIND...SC CLDNSS WILL SPREAD WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE N HLF OF THE FA OVRNGT...RESULTING IN CURRENT CLR SKIES TO BECOME PTLY TO MSLY CLDY AND LMTG THE SFC BASE INVSN POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...THE SRN HLF OF THE FA WILL REMAIN CLR TO PTLY CLDY. OVRNGT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN LAST NGT...BUT STILL WELL ABV AVG FOR THIS TM OF SEASON. PTLY TO MOSTLY CLDY CONDITIONS WILL CONT SAT...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF LGT OVRRNG SNFL ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW PRES ADVCG ENE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS JUST GETTING TO NRN SOMERSET COUNTY BY ERLY SAT EVEN. HI TEMPS SAT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEG COOLER THAN FRI.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN SATURDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN SHORTLY AFTERNOON DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS THE LOW QUICKLY HEADS EAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND LIGHT SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE LIGHT WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED FROM HOULTON NORTHWARD. COLDER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S DOWNEAST. MONDAY WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT DURING MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL PROBABLY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES EAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE START OF THE PERIOD FIND THE EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. AN AN AREA OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A LOW TRACKING ACROSS NRN CANADA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRAG A TROUGH INTO NW MAINE WED MRNG. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BY WED AFTERNOON...BY EARLY THURS MRNG A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN MAINE. THE GFS/GEM SHOW THIS AREA MOVING EAST EARLY FRI MRNG...THE ECMWF FRI AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN BEFORE THE NEXT LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW MAINE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOADED THE SUPERBLEND. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...30 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR ANTICIPATED TNGT THRU SAT. SHORT TERM: WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES IN ANY SCT SNOW SHOWERS OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA CONDITIONS CONT OVR OUTER MZS050-051 THRU TNGT... BUT WINDS AND WVS APPEAR TO BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVR INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052...WHERE WE DROPPED THE SCA FOR THIS ISSUANCE. WINDS AND WVS SHOULD SUBSIDE OVR THE OUTER MZS ON SAT. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/VJN SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN/DUDA MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN/DUDA

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