Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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222 FXUS61 KCAR 240853 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 353 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure from the mid Atlantic coast will move northeast toward the Gulf of Maine Today...then slowly across the Canadian Maritimes Wednesday and Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Latest surface analysis shows 987mb low centered south of Long Island. Current radar mosaic shows precipitation beginning to move north into down east coast. Expect the precipitation to continue to expand northward across the region this morning, reaching the Bangor area before daybreak and the St. John Valley by noon time. Across northern and central areas expect precipitation to begin as a period of snow this morning before mixing with and changing to sleet by afternoon. Across the upper Penobscot Valley, interior down east,and the greater Bangor area, expect a brief period of snow this morning to quickly transition to sleet and freezing rain. Along the down east coast, expect a period of snow, sleet, and freezing rain this morning to quickly transition to plain rain by afternoon as easterly winds transport mild air in off the gulf of Maine. As the low continues to track north through the Gulf of Maine this evening expect a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain to continue through tonight. Some warmer air will will begin to move into interior down east areas with precipitation transitioning to rain late tonight. Winter Storm Warnings continue in effect for all of northern and down east Maine into Wednesday while a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 1 pm this afternoon for the downeast coast. A wind advisory remains in effect along the down east coast until 7 pm.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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We did increase fcst 6 hrly QPFs for the Wed 12-18z and 18-24z pds based on the consensus of the model trends, but not quite as much given some differences in how each model shows the back edge of precip clrg the region. In any event, corresponding snfl and icg will be much lighter than the prev ovrngt pd, with little component in the overall stm totals and with little chg in the stm total sn/sleet and ice totals xpctd at the conclusion of this event from recent prior fcst updates. Any freezing rain and sleet should end by Wed eve as mid lvl temps cool, leaving msly sct sn sn shwrs N and sct rn/sn shwrs Downeast Wed ngt...contg thru Thu ngt as a series of weak upper lvl disturbances cross the region. Our region will then get a brief break between systems Fri into Fri eve with cooler hi/low temps compared to the very mild temps of Wed thru Thu.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Additional s/wv trofs with substantial lowering of 500mb hts will arrive Sat with additional sn shwr activity into Sun with marginal arctic air which should bring fcst hi temps closer to seasonal norms. Lingering upper troffiness ovr the region Mon will also keep cldnss and sct flurries ovr the region with somewhat moderating day tm temps. Ngt tm temps will also be colder, but due to cld cvr and wind, will remain abv avg for this tm of the season.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: Widespread IFR conditions are expected to develop from south to north this morning in a wintry mix of precipitation from KBGR on north to KFVE, with significant ice and sleet accumulations expected through tonight. Northeast winds will increase and gust to around 30 kt at times later today and tonight. Expect a wintry mix at KBHB this morning to transition to all rain by afternoon. SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR conditions in rn/mixed precip on Wed will transition upwards to MVFR clgs Wed ngt thru Sat with ocnl rn/sn shwrs thru Thu and sn shwrs aftwrds.
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&& .MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Northeast winds will continue to increase this morning with gusts to around 50 kt possible into this afternoon. A Storm Warning Remains in effect for the outer waters through this afternoon and a Gale Warning is up for the intra-coastal zone. Will need to transition to a Gale Warning from late this afternoon through tonight. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Msly SCA conditions will continue thru the rest of the marine fcst pds. Went with to about a foot abv WW3 wv guidance for fcst wv hts.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A storm surge of up to 1.5 feet is expected along with large waves. The astronomical high tide will occur shortly after 8 am this morning, however the largest waves are not expected to arrive until later in the morning. As a result only minor splash over is expected. Astronomical tides are also relatively low, so coastal flooding is not expected.
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&& .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Wednesday for MEZ001>005-010. Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Wednesday for MEZ006-011-015>017-031-032. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MEZ029-030. Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ052. Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050-051.
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&& $$ Near Term...Duda Short Term...VJN Long Term...VJN Aviation...Duda/VJN Marine...Duda/VJN Tides/Coastal Flooding...VJN/TD

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