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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KCHS 241445
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1045 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LATE THIS MORNING...CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. A REINFORCING BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH THROUGH SHORTLY AND IS EVIDENT IN UPSTREAM OBS WHICH SHOW
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE. ALOFT...A SHARP MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARDS
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE EVENING. OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...THE DAY WILL FEATURE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS WARMING NICELY IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S AND DEEP DRY AIR FILTERING
IN WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING THEN PROGRESS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETE ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY EVENING...WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...WITH SOME MID 40S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND IF WINDS FULLY
DECOUPLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO FOLLOW. THIS WILL KEEP A DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL AIR MASS IN PLACE. DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE LACKING SO RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY COME
MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF CHARLESTON...AS THE SEA BREEZE
PUSHES INLAND IN AN AXIS OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE.

WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL VARY ABOUT
25-30 DEGREES FROM THE MORNING LOWS TO THE AFTERNOON HIGHS. MORNING
LOWS SUNDAY COULD GET WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE RECORDS AT
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD WITH ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
SLOWLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW
GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING...MAINLY CONFINED TO
INLAND AREAS DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
TODAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4
FT DUE TO THE LIMITED OFFSHORE FETCH.

TONIGHT...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS DUE TO THE ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERLY SURGE. CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST...ESPECIALLY IN GEORGIA...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW GIVEN THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS TO ISSUE ANY
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. ENHANCED WINDS/SEAS EARLY
SATURDAY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS THE HIGH GAINS MORE
INFLUENCE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. A MORE TYPICAL
SPRINGTIME PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THEREAFTER WITH SOME WIND
ENHANCEMENT DURING THE DAY NEAR THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS
AND THEN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL SURGING.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND AN 8
SECOND LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK MAY
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND FAVORABLE NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS COULD
LEAD TO MINOR SALTWATER INUNDATION NEAR THE COAST DURING THE HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING. BY THE TIME OF THE
HIGH TIDE SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY EVENING...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
CONDUCIVE...YET MINOR SALTWATER FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AS
ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL CAUSE HIGHER THAN TYPICAL TIDES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MAY 25TH...
CHARLESTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT /KCHS/.....47 SET IN 1967
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON /KCHL/..................54 SET IN 1979
SAVANNAH/HHI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT /KSAV/...49 SET IN 1967

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MAY 26TH...
CHARLESTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT /KCHS/.....50 SET IN 1979
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON /KCHL/..................50 SET IN 1979
SAVANNAH/HHI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT /KSAV/...49 SET IN 1979

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JAQ/RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...