213
FXUS62 KCHS 300523
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
123 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through much of the week. A weak
disturbance will move through Tuesday and Wednesday, then a
weak cold front will stall in the vicinity this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Overall, the rest of overnight is expected to be quiet as the
area remains under the influence of high pressure parked over
the Atlantic. Cirrus could start to increase late tonight ahead
of an approaching shortwave, and there will be a little
stratocumulus forming within a moistening southerly flow. But
for the most part we should see mostly clear skies. Model
guidance indicates the potential for a corridor of showers to
develop offshore within an area of weak convergence, mainly
closer to sunrise Tuesday. But none of this will reach land
areas. Lows are forecast to range from the upper 50s far inland
to the middle 60s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper shortwave will pass across the region Tuesday into
Tuesday night and provide a bit more active weather than recent
days. The first half of Tuesday is expected to be mostly dry
then there will be an uptick in convective coverage as we move
into the afternoon and persisting through the evening and the
overnight. Less coverage is expected on Wednesday as the upper
wave shifts offshore, but a surface trough lingering in the
vicinity could still trigger isolated to perhaps scattered
showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures generally peak in
the mid 80s inland of the beaches, while lows stay in the 60s.

Ridge builds over the region on Thursday which will act to
limit rain chances. It will be the warmest day of the set, with
highs reaching the upper 80s to near 90 away from the immediate
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid level ridge extending across the region on Friday will
slide east over the weekend as a weakening shortwave moves in.
The surface pattern largely features high pressure although a
weak surface trough will linger in the area. These features will
support low-end rain chances (generally 20-30%) over the
weekend, with the highest coverage inland.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR will prevail at all sites through 06Z
Wednesday. There will be a few showers off the coast of KJZI
during the late morning and early afternoon, as they remain
offshore. Upstream from all terminals, scattered SHRA/TSRA will
occur during the mid and late afternoon, eventually progressing
east tonight. While flight restrictions are possible should any
directly impact a terminal, probabilities are too low to show
anything in the latest TAFs. All airfields will experience some
wind gusts of 15-20 kt in wake of the sea breeze after 18-19Z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Overnight: High pressure centered across the western Atlantic
will extend across the region, maintaining quiet marine
conditions across local waters. In general, winds will remain at
or below 10-15 kt, slightly veering to south-southeast
overnight. Seas will range between 2-4 ft, largest across
offshore Georgia waters.

Tuesday through Saturday: Atlantic high pressure will remain
the dominant feature Tuesday through Saturday, with winds
generally no higher than 10-15 kt and seas 2-4 ft. A moderate
coastal sea breeze will develop each afternoon.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ETM
LONG TERM...ETM
AVIATION...
MARINE...