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000
FXUS62 KCHS 150448
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1248 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND SHIFT
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY STALL OVER THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS BY 1-2 DEGREES MOST AREAS PER GOING THERMAL
TRENDS. CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS
WILL PROMOTE SOLID RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM
THE BEACHES.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PROMINENT UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. THE
REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRY AIRMASS MARKED BY PWATS LESS THAN AN INCH. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
WARM 700 MB TEMPS AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EACH AFTERNOON
SO POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT AT ZERO FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL RUN VERY
CLOSE TO CLIMO.

MONDAY...THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY MORE CYCLONIC
FLOW AND BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
COMBINED WITH COOLER 700 MB TEMPS WILL MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE
MODESTLY LESS HOSTILE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SOUNDINGS SHOW
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 BECOMING UNCAPPED AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SEEM REASONABLE THERE. TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST
COAST STATES WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...SUPPORTING THE EVENTUAL PROGRESSION OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT COULD
STALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS IT BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO FLOW
ALOFT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS...THEN
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY INTO PERSISTENT 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES
FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. PREFERRED TO REMAIN
SOMEWHAT GENERIC THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...AND WILL REFINE DETAILS AS
MODEL SOLUTIONS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION...NO CONCERNS.
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&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING WELL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT SHIFTING FAR OUT TO SEA. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY...BECOMING
PREVAILING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL THEN STEADILY INCREASE/BUILD OVER ALL WATERS BY LATE
MONDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
ADVANCING TO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS PEAKING
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 4 TO 5 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 10
NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST