Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 172329 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 729 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 ...00z TAF Aviation and Near Term Forecast Update... .SYNOPSIS... A trough will push across the region late tonight through Monday night with a second trough and a surface cold front arriving late Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure will briefly return for Thursday, but the next system will approach the region towards the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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700 pm update... Previous discussion... Scattered light rain/snow showers will continue to push southeast across the area this evening before precip transitions to lake effect in NE OH/NW PA as a trough pivots into the region tonight through Monday. The trough will drag cooler 850mb temperatures (-10 to -12C) into the area, but latest forecast soundings suggest that moisture in the DGZ may be hard to come by so snowfall rates may not be very efficient tonight into Monday morning. Moisture and lift appear to become a bit more favorable by late Monday morning, especially as northwest flow taps into moisture from the upstream Great Lakes and the upper trough axis pushes east across the region. As a result, there will likely be an uptick in snow shower coverage Monday afternoon and have high end chance PoPs across the entire area with likely to categorical PoPs across the snowbelt region of NE OH and NW PA Monday afternoon. Somewhat similar to today, snow showers may be convective in nature with pockets of moderate snowfall rates possible; the main hazard will be reduced visibilities. While the March sun angle and marginal surface temps will inhibit snow accumulation, any moderate snowfall rates could result in efficient snow accumulation, especially on grassy surfaces. Snow may be able to accumulate a bit more efficiently Monday night, but by then the best forcing will be exiting to the east and snow shower coverage will likely diminish a bit. Snowfall totals will depend on the location of the heavier bands of snow and whether or not the snowfall rates are able to overcome the marginal surface temps. Expect less than an inch of snow accumulation tonight with a dusting to an inch likely areawide on Monday. Locally higher amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible across the highest terrain of the snowbelt region with the higher amounts closer to 3 inches possible in interior NW PA. If snow showers manage to hold together Monday night, there may be an additional 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation across the interior snowbelt. By the end of the near term period, event total snowfall totals may approach several inches across inland NW PA, but do not anticipate any headlines at this time given the long duration of the event and the potential for inefficient snow accumulation. Below normal temperatures continue through the near term period with Monday`s highs only reaching the mid to upper 30s (lower 30s in interior NW PA). Expect overnight lows in the mid to upper 20s tonight and Monday night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Northwest flow continues through the short term period, with several shortwave troughs propagating through this flow across the region, resulting in periods of clouds and light lake effect precipitation across mainly the eastern snow belt region of Northwest Pennsylvania through Wednesday. Wetbulbing should result in most precipitation falling as snow, despite peak afternoon temperatures in the low 40s for the snowbelt. The forecast does have one to four inches of snow accumulation primarily for inland Northwest Pennsylvania during this period (with trace to a few tenths elsewhere in the Ohio snowbelt of Northeast Ohio). This could be a bit too high however, as historically it can be a challenge (though not impossible) to accumulate snow during the daytime in March with marginal temperatures. Snow accumulations Tuesday night should be more efficient though with overnight lows at or just below freezing. High pressure builds in from the west Wednesday night, with lake effect precipitation gradually dissipating. Overnight lows drop to the low 20s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure becomes centered over the region Thursday afternoon before departing to the east Thursday night. A very subtle shortwave trough moves east across the Great Lakes region late Thursday night through Friday, with light precipitation to accompany it. Temperatures are likely to be cold enough for precipitation to fall as snow initially late Thursday night into Friday morning before transitioning to mostly rain by Friday afternoon/evening. High pressure gradually builds in Friday night and Saturday with limited to no precipitation expected. && .AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
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The overall message for aviation weather with this TAF update is scattered rain/snow showers will be around for much of the time period with variable conditions from VFR to lower end MVFR at times, especially during heavier bursts. Most of the time ceilings will be VFR between 3500 and 6000 feet over the next 24 hours. There will be brief pockets or burst of snow showers that will bring down visibility 2sm to 5sm and ceilings 1500 to 3000 feet at times this evening through tomorrow evening. The overall trend for these scattered snow showers to become more towards lake effect and focus in the Snowbelt region of NEOH and NWPA. Winds will be west-northwesterly 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots. The gusts will mostly relax after 03z tonight but return after 15z Monday. Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periods of snow Monday afternoon through Wednesday. Additional non-VFR possible in rain/snow Thursday night into Friday.
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&& .MARINE... No changes were made to marine headlines with this forecast update. West to northwest flow of 15 to 20 knots is expected to continue through Monday night before shifting to out of the southwest on Tuesday. Winds weaken Tuesday night with brief high pressure before northwest winds strengthen to 15 to 25 knots Wednesday and Wednesday night. Will probably need another small craft advisory for this period. Winds weaken again as high pressure builds back in Thursday and Thursday night. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for LEZ142>144. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LEZ145. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ146>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Maines NEAR TERM...Griffin/Maines SHORT TERM...Saunders LONG TERM...Saunders AVIATION...Griffin MARINE...Saunders

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