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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 171923
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
323 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
ON TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST. CONVECTION HAS FORMED ALONG A WEAK
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED BUT
THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND. THE
88D IS SHOWING ALL SORTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND AND
HARD TO TELL WHERE AND WHEN MORE STORMS MAY FORM. AS A RESULT WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL LOWER MI WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME
STORMS ARE ALSO FIRING ALONG THAT FEATURE AND COULD EVENTUALLY
FIND THEIR WAY TO THE AREA. SUSPECT THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY BUT THOSE FEW SPOTS THAT DO SEE PRECIP COULD GET AN
INCH OR MORE OF QPF. IT REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES IN EXCESS
OF 2000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO HIGH SO THE STORMS SHOULD
BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THE ONLY THING REALLY LACKING
TODAY IS A GOOD LIFTING MECHANISM. BY LATE TONIGHT THE NW END OF
THE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE STORMS WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY.  HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOW TO LOWER SO
SOME CAPE AND INSTABILITY IS LIKELY. THE DRY SHOULD BEGIN TO WIN
OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. BY TUESDAY EVENING ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY
WITH SKIES RAPIDLY BECOMING CLEAR. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER WILL
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS USUAL HAVE USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TODAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
SUNDAY . EXPECTING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS PUSH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH.  USED
THE FASTER GFS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LEADING EDGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE ERIE
LAKESHORE. MODERATE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH CAPES OVER
2,000 J/KG BUT NOT A LOT OF LIFT OR SHEAR. MODELS DEVELOP MORE
PREIP AHEAD OF SECONDARY TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH MOVES ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA OVERNIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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TROUGH/WEAK SECONDARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT.  BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST.  MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS AT THIS POINT.   GFS WINDS NE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WHILE NAM IS
THE STRONGEST WITH NE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS.  ECMWF AND CONTINUITY
WERE 10 TO 15 KNOTS SO WENT WITH THAT FOR THE FORECAST.  SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.   WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE.  QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB