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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 230303
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1103 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC
THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
KEPT THUNDER IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. LOTS
OF UPWARD MOTION AND AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS A LITTLE TOO DRY AND A
LITTLE TOO STABLE FOR MUCH SEVERE WEATHER. THAT BEING SAID...ANY
OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS CAN HAVE A BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR AND GUSTY
WINDS.

THE PASSAGE OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS CROSSING NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
SHOULD BE THE LAST OF THE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AS IT MOVES ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LINGERING
SHOWER ANYTIME OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOWER
60S...LOOKS GOOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY USHERING IN A
DISTINCT AIR MASS CHANGE. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WILL NEED 70 PERCENT
OR HIGHER POPS ALL AREAS BY MIDDAY. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND A
SECONDARY FRONT LATE IN THE DAY AND MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
CLEARING TOMORROW NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE EAST
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE DRY. THE AIR MASS SET TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND
WILL BE VERY COLD WITH 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND ZERO. IF WINDS
LESSEN AS EXPECTED...WE MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. NO MENTION YET BUT HAVE GOT
LOW TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 3OS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 60S THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING...EXPECTING CLEARING
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY EAST.
THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN THREAT FOR SOME FROST OVER THOSE
AREAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD START TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE WEST
HALF OF THE AREA ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST FROM DEVELOPING. WILL
MENTION PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BY MONDAY MORNING.

GOOD NEWS ON THE HORIZON WILL BE THE LARGE BROAD RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL SET UP A SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR A WARM
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
MEANS WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST POTENTIAL STRETCH OF VERY WARM AND
MUGGY AIR. UNTIL THEN...A MASSIVE WARM UP IS IN STORE FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

LATEST MODEL RUNS CONSISTENT IN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER NEXT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO SEE IF THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. A FEW STORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE GUSTS TO 45
KNOTS BUT THIS THREAT IS ISOLATED AND WILL DECREASE THROUGH
03Z. TAFS WILL BE UPDATED AS NEEDED IF A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES A TERMINAL.

OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WITH MVFR
CLOUDS ARRIVING BETWEEN 10-14Z. THE COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 16-21Z AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY REACH IFR AT SOME SITES.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE. COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME NORTHERLY BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IN TURN CAUSE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS TO
FLY. I ANTICIPATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN WINDS FINALLY DIMINISH AND GO LIGHT NORTHWEST. A
BIT OF AN INCREASE IN THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TILL TAKE PLACE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY