Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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000
FXUS61 KCLE 160125
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
925 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure ridge builds briefly into the area tonight and
early Saturday. A strong cold front tracks through the region
late Saturday evening into early Saturday night. Colder airmass
in place for the end of the weekend through around mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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920 pm update...
No forecast changes were needed at this time.
715 pm update...
There were some minor adjustments made to the hourly cloud cover
this evening into the overnight but no impactful changes were
made to the ongoing near term forecast.
Previous discussion...
Drier is air is attempting to push into the region, and seeing
some of the cloud bases rise with modest boundary layer mixing,
but the eastern half of the CWA is still dealing with low level
cold air advection off Lake Erie. This will make the stratus
significantly slower to erode in this area. Should clear out by
late morning Saturday into the early afternoon hours with the
surface ridge just to the southeast, shifting winds to a more
southerly direction. This is all ahead of another cold front
that will be dropping in from the northwest, associated with a
closed upper level low tracking across northern Ontario.
Expecting a line of showers with this cold front, no thunder, as
it moves into the CWA after 21Z Saturday. It should be fairly
quick, and will likely push through the southeastern zones by
06Z Sunday. This will usher in a significant change of airmass,
and will mark the beginning of a chillier period of weather for
the southern Great Lakes that will continue well into the short
term forecast period. Ahead of that cold front, however, should
have nice temperature recovery with some insolation and the
aforementioned southerly flow, reaching the 55-60F range,
slightly cooler right along the lakeshore.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough will take up residence across the Great Lakes
through the short term period with a couple of pieces of jet energy
rotating through the flow. This will keep chances of precipitation
in the forecast with the greatest chances occur downwind of the lake
across NE OH into NW PA on Monday. Temperatures gradually cool at
850mb through the short term period but only get down to -8 C to
-11 C late Sunday through Monday night. So there will be a mixture
of rain or snow through the period with a light accumulation
possible across NE OH into NW PA Sunday night through Monday night.
These light accumulations likely occur only during the dark hours.
Highs in the 40`s on Sunday, dipping to the 30`s for Monday. Lows in
the 20`s to around 30.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level trough remains in place over the region through the long
term period. There is a significant spread in solutions on when the
jet energy moves through the flow. The best chance of lake enhanced
precipitation will be Tuesday into Tuesday night. It should end from
west to east Tuesday night into Wednesday. There could be some light
snow accumulations Tuesday night across NE OH into NW PA.
It appears temperatures will moderate back up to seasonal levels by
Wednesday. the warming trend then continues through Friday with
highs into the 50`s. Lows Tuesday night and Wednesday night range
from the 20`s to lower 30`s. Lows by Thursday night should be in the
mid 30`s to around 40.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
The two main concerns for aviation weather with this 00z TAF
update is the LIFR/IFR low ceilings over portions of NEOH and
NWPA this evening as well as gusty southwest winds up to 30
knots Saturday afternoon. Low ceilings for CLE, CAK, YNG, and
ERI will slowly improve later this evening and overnight from
west to east. CAK, YNG, and ERI will likely hold on to MVFR
ceilings late into the overnight with clearing to VFR by
Saturday morning. VFR conditions will be around for all TAF
sites Saturday morning through the end of the time period. Winds
will be light this evening and overnight becoming south-
southwest 5 to 10 knots by 12z Saturday. Winds will increase
late morning and midday up to 15 to 20 knots from the southwest.
Gusts up to 25 to 30 knots will be likely during the afternoon.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periods of rain and/or snow
Saturday night through Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Ridge of high pressure moves across the lake tonight with lighter
winds expected. Southwesterly winds increase on Saturday with the
expectation that winds increase to 15 to 25 mph across the western
half of the lake by the afternoon. So a small craft advisory is a
strong possibility for about 6 hours from mid afternoon into the
evening. A cold front cross the lake Saturday evening with westerly
winds of 15 to 20 knots expected through Monday night. There is an
increase in the winds on Monday to around 20 knots. The longer fetch
may be enough to build waves from Cleveland to Ripley late Saturday
night through Tuesday to warrant a small craft advisory.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...Griffin/26
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...MM