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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 152250
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
650 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKESHORE WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL OHIO
TONIGHT AND THEN STALL.  THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE LAKESHORE. SHOWERS HAVE ENDED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. SO HAVE REMOVED THE PRECIP
CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. DID HOWEVER RE-INTRODUCE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/TS FROM FINDLAY TO MILLERSBURG. HRRR
AND RAP WANT TO PAINT SOME QPF TONIGHT. IT HAS A REASONABLE
PICTURE FOR THE CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW...AND WITH BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY AND A LITTLE BIT OF ENERGY UPSTREAM...DID NOT WANT A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST. WILL WATCH FOR THIS TONIGHT. FOR TEMPS
WENT UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE MODELS
OVERDOING THE CLOUDS TONIGHT...IF THAT IS THE CASE TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE LOWER.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STALL THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.  GFS A
LITTLE SLOWER TODAY MOVING THE FRONT NORTH.  EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME
SW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA REMOVED MENTION OF POPS FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.   MODELS STILL IN CONFLICT FOR SATURDAY.  ECMWF
KEEPS FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.  FOR NOW SEE NO REASON TO START FLIP
FLOPPING FORECASTS THIS FAR OUT WHEN THINGS ARE STILL IN DOUBT.  SO
FOR NOW KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE RIDGE IS STILL PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT OUT A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR SOME
OUTFLOW/MESO BOUNDARY... INCREASING HEAT ETC...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE WARM AND MOSTLY RAIN FREE. CUT
BACK ON THE 12 HOUR POP SUNDAY/MONDAY MOSTLY TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT.
THIS WILL BE "SLIGHT CHANCE" IN MOST FORECASTS WHICH DOES NOT SHOW
UP IN MOST OF OUR TEXT FORECASTS (AFTER THE FIRST DAY).

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE NEXT FRONT FROM THE WEST SHOULD WORK
INTO THE AREA. IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE IN A HURRY TO MOVE EAST AS A
TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE DEEPENING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY. WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL BEGIN TO CUT BACK ON TEMPERATURES BY
NEXT WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE BIG RIDGE AND THE
TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS 75 TO 80 SUNDAY...AROUND 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN 70S WEDNESDAY. LOWS GENERALLY MID 50S TO
THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED ACROSS THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE AND
SHOULD MAKE SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
COUNTING ON NO NEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT AS THE
EARLIER BATCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS NOW SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING. PATCHES OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

.OUTLOOK... NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS
AFTERNOON EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING JAMES BAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING...PUSHING A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE WITH DECREASING WINDS AND WAVES. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST OF AVON WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM
AND THE ENDING TIME OF 10 PM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE LAKE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE LAKE FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
TIME WITH STABLE CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH WAVES LESS THAN 2 FEET. LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ146>149.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KEC