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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 151034
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
634 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN STALL
JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO SOUTHERN
OHIO FRIDAY AND THEN RETURN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS A WARM
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE...BOOSTED TEMPS WEST TO THE MID 80S FROM THE LOWER 80S.
ALSO INCREASED POPS WEST TO 50. OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES.

PREVIOUS...CURRENTLY OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOWERS ARE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA...GENERATED AS WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR GETS
LIFTED OVER A WARM FRONT. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN
OHIO AND NWRN PA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING THE NEW NAM12 SURFACE PRESSURE PROG
PUTS IT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF A MFD-YNG LINE. THE NAM12 CAPE FIELD
SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WITH THE AXIS
AT 00Z FROM ROUGHLY DAYTON TO PBZ. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR THE
SHOWERS OCCURRING NOW AND THEN BRIEFLY DROP TO CHANCE THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING LIKELY POPS AGAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. REMAINED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
TEMPS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN STALL.
THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY DROP TO SOUTHERN OHIO FRIDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
EXPECTING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO REMAIN DRY. FRIDAY THE HIGH
DOES APPEAR TO BE A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL
BRING IN CHANCE POPS TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
TRIGGER A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. FORTUNATELY FOR US...THIS MEANS
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL ARRIVE RIGHT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EVER SO SLOWLY NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.

THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
EACH PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE PERIODS APPEAR THAT IT WILL BE MONDAY
WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY COULD REMAIN FOR THE MOST
PART DRY WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. BUT WILL LEAVE
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH PERIOD FOR NOW UNTIL WE GET A
BETTER LOOK AT TIMING.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR EACH
PERIOD...GUIDANCE APPEARS THAT IT COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
TEMPERATURES. SO WILL BE RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THIS
GO AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CLUSTER OF FAST MOVING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION IS
TRYING TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA WHERE IT IS
ENCOUNTERING A LOT OF DRY AIR. THE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING
AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES TO GO BELOW VFR. A
FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR TO TOLEDO AND FINDLAY AS WINDS
JUST ABOVE 2000 FEET ARE AT 55 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...WINDS DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AND EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK... NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY OUT OF
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE HIGHEST WAVES OFF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS AND THEREFORE SHOULD NOT NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WAVES. AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY LATER TODAY...WINDS
DIMINISH IN SPEED CONSIDERABLY BY EVENING AND THIS SHOULD DIMINISH
ANY THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS WELL.

AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY...THE LAKE APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE
RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SO...NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY