Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 141339 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 939 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front stretches east across Illinois to Ohio from a low pressure over northern Missouri. A wave of low pressure will move across this front as it moves north today before a cold front crosses the area tonight. High pressure will build into the Midwest behind the front for Friday. A low pressure system will dive southeast across the Great Lakes region this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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935 AM Update... Tailored the POPs to radar trends with the ongoing convection to the west. Will be reevaluating the mesoscale environment for the timing of the next wave expected this afternoon. Previous Discussion... A warm front extends into the forecast area this morning. Just to the west in Indiana and Illinois, some thunderstorms have developed near the front with the left exit region of the upper level jet lifting north to provide that little extra lift for some elevated convection. This complex should continue to develop as elevated convection into Northwest Ohio and have PoPs increasing to categorical for areas from Findlay to Sandusky and northwest. Warm advection and increasing dew points across the region this morning into the early afternoon should allow for some scattered showers and perhaps a rumble or two to develop across the area and have increasing PoPs through the afternoon hours, but mostly just a chance extending east from the known convection areas from this morning`s round. The main show and concern for today though will be late this afternoon and into the evening hours. A wave of low pressure will advance east along the warm frontal boundary across the forecast area. This will occur as a strengthening low level jet enters the region. The surface low will then pull a cold front across the forecast area tonight. There will be plenty of forcing factors across the region to generate thunderstorms. There will also be a fair amount of shear across the region with sfc-3km SRH values approaching 300 m2/s2. The problem for this event is that it seems that convection that would develop would continue to remain relatively elevated with a lesser chance to become surface based. This will be because of a warm nose near the surface along with dew points only into the 50s that will keep the near surface layer relatively stable. Any elevated convection will have a fairly sufficient hail threat with MUCAPE values in the 500-1000 J/kg range and generally supportive lapse rates. However, if something can become more surface based, which may be later into the night, there is enough in place across the region to allow for opportunities for damaging wind gusts or even a tornado. The best timing for a more potent round of convection will be from around 5 PM to Midnight. Most of the area is in a Day 1 Marginal Risk from the Storm Prediction Center with a portion of the southwest forecast area in a Slight Risk for the increased hail threat. The cold front will move through the forecast area tonight and rain chances will decrease fairly quickly and have axed PoPs significantly from the previous forecast with at least Northwest Ohio dry by daybreak on Friday, but suspect most of the forecast area will be dry come Friday morning. Have PoPs continuing to trend down through the day Friday to completely dry. Temperatures will fall quickly with the cold front tonight with most locations into the 40s. Temperatures on Friday will struggle to warm at all with cold air advection into the region and have stagnant highs in the 40s to lower 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Drier weather will return for Saturday as brief high pressure builds into the region. Pressure gradient winds will allow for gusty, southwest winds of 30 to 35 mph to develop in the afternoon and evening, especially west of the I-71 corridor. Temperatures will remain above average in the mid-50s on Saturday. However, rain chances increase once again by Saturday night as low pressure system slides southeast across the Upper and Eastern Great Lakes, extending a cold front through the area and ushering in more normal temperatures in the 40s for Sunday. A much colder air mass will arrive behind this cold front, with ensemble clustering in good agreement of 850 mb temperatures falling between -10 to -12 degrees C late Sunday night. Lake-effect snow showers should begin to develop across the snowbelt with the cold air mass combined with primarily northwest boundary layer flow. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Below average temperatures are expected through the long term period as lake-effect snow continues and expands on Monday into Tuesday. An upper-level trough axis will swing southeast across the Eastern Great Lakes on Monday, supplying more mid-level moisture to the ongoing lake-effect snow across the snowbelt. Anticipate the entire area will receive at least light snow showers at some point during the day on Monday with an uptick in lake-effect snow intensity across the snowbelt. The cold air mass should remain steady with the trough passage, with 850 mb temperatures remaining around -12 degrees C into Tuesday. Uncertainty in the forecast begins to creep in by later Tuesday and Wednesday as some ensemble clusters reveal ridging trying to build in from the west, while others keep a troughing regime in place across the Eastern Great Lakes. In terms of surface temperatures, highs will likely remain in the 30s with 20s expected at night. Temperatures may rebound into the 40s by Wednesday, though uncertainty in the overall pattern regime begins to increase. && .AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Showers and thunderstorms are reaching Northwest Ohio this morning and bringing non-VFR to KTOL and KFDY. This initial line of convection will arc toward KMFD, but uncertain how far east it will progress beyond that. There may be a glancing blow to KCLE later this morning, if convection can hang on. Additional rounds of showers and storms are expected across the region today with the best window for storms being later this evening. Storms could bring a large hail and gusty wind threat, both of which may be added to the TAFs during later forecasts. Winds this afternoon are expected to increase with gusts to 25 kt possible. Later tonight, a cold front will extend across the region and clear the rain from northwest to southeast. Low ceilings into the IFR range are expected behind the cold front, along with winds shifting to the northwest. Some guidance is also point toward LIFR ceilings across the region but will hold off for now. Outlook...Non-VFR expected in low ceilings behind a cold front on Friday and Friday night. Non-VFR possible in rain showers Saturday night through Sunday before changing to snow showers Sunday night through Monday. && .MARINE... No marine headlines are expected until at least Saturday evening/overnight when a cold front will cross the lake, ushering in west to northwest flow near 20 knots when Small Craft conditions may develop. Small Craft conditions may persist across the lake into Tuesday, especially across the central and eastern basins of the lake as west to northwest flow of 15 to 20 knots is expected to persist. A few stronger thunderstorms are possible today and tonight, with gusty winds and large hail the primary threats. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...26/Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Kahn LONG TERM...Kahn AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...Kahn

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