Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000 FXUS61 KCLE 140612 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 212 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front drifts southward along the vicinity of the Lake Erie shoreline later tonight through Thursday. A cold front moves through Thursday night into early Friday. High pressure for the beginning of the weekend, followed by another cold front Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 9:15 PM Update... No changes were made to the forecast with this update. Last bit of quiet weather tonight before our next chance for showers and storms enters from the west early Thursday morning. Previous discussion... Much to consider with the near term forecast today. On the synoptic scale, broad upper level low over the inter mountain west generating surface low pressure on the lee side of the mountains near the panhandle of Oklahoma. Weak boundary extends from that surface low northeastward through the Great lakes and into eastern Ontario. This boundary will end up drifting southward tonight into Thursday morning, and stalling out in the vicinity of the southern shore of Lake Erie for most of Thursday. Activity begins in our CWA with the nose of a level jet pushing into northern Indiana and an associated convective complex triggered by PVA in the flow aloft, and aided by the aforementioned stationary front. Expecting this complex on the eastern end to spill into northwest OH after 09Z or so tonight, with the western zones getting clipped by potential thunderstorm activity, if not with showers. There are two important factors to consider with this early morning activity. First is the convective debris clouds, extent of their eastward spread, and the resultant effectiveness in stalling out the convective potential later that day by stifling the instability. The second will be any leftover convective outflow boundaries becoming the focus for later development when the atmosphere recovers. Do expect this recovery to happen at some point, but then we get into some of the convective parameters not perfectly lining up. The best axis for instability will be just south of the CWA, and will take some time before the eastern half of the CWA even gets into the favored area for this, likely after 18Z Thursday. The stationary front will make a slight push back northward as a warm front across the lake Thursday afternoon with the rapid approach of the surface low crossing the mid Mississippi Valley towards northwest Ohio. Later in the day, we get into a strengthening 850hPa jet along and ahead of the southern portion of front/surface low. Given the westerly 0-6km bulk shear vectors in the 50-60kt range, expecting a convective line to develop and track across the CWA. The uncertainty comes into play with the locations of the surface low/frontal boundary which some forecast models have a slightly further south placement which could make the preferred area for convection US 30 and south. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Models are good agreement with the frontal position from western New York to northeast Ohio to southwest Ohio Friday morning. Associated convection will be southeast of the forecast area by mid-morning Friday. However, post-frontal showers will persist through noon on Friday and on tapering off from west to east later Friday afternoon. Temperatures will remain steady in the morning and slowly falling temps in the 40s due to cold air advection behind the cold front on Friday. Temps will continue to fall in mid 30s by Saturday morning. A temporary lull in precipitation will occur Friday evening and Saturday. A brief high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures will remain above average in the mid-50s. A short wave in northwest flow will dive southeast across the Upper and Eastern Great Lakes Saturday night. As a result, rain chances will increase across the forecast area. However, rainfall amounts will remain less than a tenth. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The approach of the main trough will allow winds to become northwest Sunday through Tuesday. This feature will keep thickness layers from increasing and keep temperatures cool and near-normal temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. In addition, sufficient moisture will yield mix precipitation on Sunday and scattered snow showers Sunday night across the snowbelt region. Colder temperatures, residual moisture, relatively warm lake waters, and winds becoming more northerly Monday will increase the chance of snow across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. There is still some uncertainty with amounts at this time and lake-effect snows will likely continue into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
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VFR conditions will continue early this morning as mid-to-high level clouds enter the region ahead of an active weather system later today. Winds are generally southerly to start, although a front along the Lake Erie shoreline has allowed for some easterlies. A low pressure system with an associated cold front will enter the region today and bring several rounds of rain and eventually a bonifide storm chance. Northwest Ohio will likely have 2 or maybe 3 rounds of rain today before storms this evening and have rain entering around daybreak for KTOL and KFDY. The trajectory of the early rain will stay away from the remaining terminals, but more rain should develop in the afternoon hours and spread east across the region and have rain mentions everywhere this afternoon. Visibility and ceilings should settle to MVFR once rain gets going. The best window for storm chances will be this evening and be the window for IFR at all terminals and have sprinkled in the best TS timing in the TAFs. The cold front will start moving through the region toward the end of the TAF period and begin clearing rain from northwest to southeast. Winds will shift to the northwest and an IFR deck of ceilings will cascade across the region. Outlook...Non-VFR expected in low ceilings behind a cold front on Friday and Friday night. Non-VFR possible in rain showers Saturday night through Sunday before changing to snow showers Sunday night through Monday.
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&& .MARINE... Marine conditions should remain quiet across the lake through the end of the week and even into the weekend. Marine headlines are possible with Small Craft late Saturday as southwest winds increase to near 20 knots, especially across the western basin of the lake. A cold front is expected to move east across the lake by Sunday with westerly of 15 to 20 knots. A northwest flow of 15 to 20 knots may persist into early week with Small Craft conditions remaining possible. A few stronger thunderstorms are possible Thursday morning and again Thursday night. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...Iverson/26 SHORT TERM...FZ LONG TERM...FZ AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...FZ

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