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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 141144
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
744 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND BE OVER THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED THE SKY COVER AS THE CLOUDS INCREASED OVER NE OH AS
EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS OVER NW OHIO DECREASED BUT SOME ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP. BASED ON THE SPC STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE OF OPPORTUNITY
MODEL IT INDICATES NO MEASURABLE RAIN FOR NW PA TODAY. THE
RUC/RAP AND GFS STILL EXPECT SOME PCPN TO DEVELOP...WILL CONTINUE
THE SPRINKLES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY. THE CLOUDS OVER WESTERN OHIO SEEM TO BE
DECREASING. ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY DAY. OVER THE EASTERN AREAS THE CLOUDS ARE DECREASING BUT
AS PER THE MODELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE MORNING SPREADING
FROM EAST TO WEST AND THEN START TO DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A
FEW OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO HINT AT SOME LIGHT QPF OVER NW PA
TODAY. ON THE EDGE ABOUT THAT WITH THE AIRMASS ALOFT DRYING OUT
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. DID INCLUDE SPRINKLES FOR THAT
AREA. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR THE
LAKESHORE...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. NONE THE LESS...HIGHS...WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. SOME QUESTION WILL THE DEW POINT DROP INTO THE 40S. IT
SEEMS LIKE THEY SHOULD BASED ON LOOKING UPSTREAM IN MICHIGAN.
BECAUSE OF THAT WENT WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT.

A DRY SATURDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS. A WARM FRONT WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR
THE TIME BEING WITH MOISTURE NOT REAL HIGH KEPT THE POPS 50% OR
LESS. DID GO WITH SCATTERED WORDING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FACT THAT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT THERE.THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DECREASING AS THE
SUNDAY GOES ON...SO KEPT THE WORDING CHANCE. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD
BE AN INCH OR LESS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. MANY AREAS THAT HAVE SATURATED GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DRY OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE LONG TERM. A SLOWLY EVOLVING PATTERN
AS BLOCKING ALONG THE WEST COAST HOLDS THINGS UP. IN THE END WILL
HAVE FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES OR
EVEN DRY WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE IS THE MAIN FEATURE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ON TUESDAY IF PREVIOUS SYSTEM IS SLOWER TO EXIT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MVFR AND IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OH/NW PA. EXPECT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
THIS CEILING WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND/OR LIFT SOME. VFR
CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...CLEARING THIS EVENING. A
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA BUT KEPT THE
TAF FORECASTS DRY. LIGHTER NORTH WIND TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THINK THIS TIME SATURDAY SHOULD
STILL BE VFR AT THE TAF SITES. SREF WHICH HAD THIS MORNINGS CIGS
NOT SHOWING ANYTHING FOR EITHER CIGS OR VSBY IN THE EARLY
MORNING...SO WILL GO VFR. AT MOST IT WOULD BE SOME PATCHY MVFR BR.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NON VFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO
TUESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
STILL HAVE A NORTH FLOW TODAY...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST TO LAKE ERIE. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...SHIFTING EAST SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND LOCALLY ACROSS
LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON AND
OFF FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD IN TUESDAY...CLEARING THE WEATHER OUT AND GIVING THE
LAKE A NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN