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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 221751
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
151 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO
THURSDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SPC HAS BEEFED UP THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
TO THE FORECAST. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO PRECIP CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE LOWERED CHANCES THROUGH MIDDAY. SATELLITE
PROBLEMS CONTINUE BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE
SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT LEAST.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW.
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS/WEAK TSRA POP UP FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
TOWARD SUNSET...MAINLY IN THE WEST THIS MORNING...BUT A BETTER
CHANCE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES OF AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG. HOWEVER LL JET
INCREASE TO 30-40KT THIS AFTERNOON AND THE AREA COMES INTO THE
REAR QUADRANT OF THE 300MB JET. IN ADDITION WITH THE JET LIFTING
OUT THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA WILL FINALLY
START TO WEAKEN AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN
LIFTING OUT. ALL COMBINED SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND
LIFT TO KICK OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

AS FOR TEMPS...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE AS IT HAS BEEN WAY TOO LOW LAST 2
DAYS.  TOOK YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPS AND LOWERED THEM A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.  DONT THINK TSRA WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THINK THE TSRA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND THEN THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK FROM THE PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING.
BUT MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS.

SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHRA MAY LINGER IN THE SNOWBELT FRI MORNING BUT
SHOULD END DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS SIMILAR IN
SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM ONTARIO TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A
WARM FRONT EAST THROUGH MISSOURI TO KENTUCKY. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING THE WARM FRONT BUT BELIEVE THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN WEST/SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA WHILE THE HIGH MOVES
EAST.  WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE POPS
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE DRY WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A LOT OF CLOUDS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING ATMOSPHERE RATHER QUIET
AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. HOWEVER...THE EAST HALF HAS
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE
80S. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIALLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE POTENTIAL RIGHT NOW IN THE
TAFS AS MODELS ARE HINTING AT SUPPRESSING ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT. IN THE WEST...SINCE INSTABILITY IS WEAKENED BY THE CLOUDS
WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOWARD THE REGION WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SOME MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW BUT NOT BEFORE SHOWERS MOVE EAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE TO THE
CENTRAL LAKES BY THIS EVENING.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THURSDAY.  EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OR MOVE ONTO THE LAKE
TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH RAIN THURSDAY BEHIND THE
SECOND FRONT. AHEAD OF THE LOW TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE
FRONT THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.  THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER
THE SECOND FRONT HOWEVER WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
15 TO 25 KNOTS. THIS SHOULD BOOST WAVES TO 4 TO 6 FEET THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK.  WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AM
EXPECTING NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...TK