-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 161932
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
332 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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A FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO WILL LIFT NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT IS NOW SOUTH OF
COLUMBUS AND WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.  DEBRIS
CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  STAYED REASONABLY CLOSE TO MET
MOS FOR TEMPS.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY BUT
THE MOVEMENT OF THE QUASISTATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO
REMAINS IN DOUBT.  THE TREND FOR BOTH MODELS IS LIFTING THE FRONT
NORTH THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER WITH THE FRONT
THAN THE NAM.  CAPES PUSH TO AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE SOUTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT.  IN ADDITION WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TRYING TO BUILD IN AND NO KICKER EXCEPT THE BOUNDARY ITSELF WILL
JUST KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY AND DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAY TRY TO SNEAK NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BUT PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE ON TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME 5 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE
RIDGE ALOFT AND THE AIRMASS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ONE WOULD HAVE TO
THINK WE CAN GET INTO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 80S. THE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT TWO FRONTS FOR MID/LATE WEEK. THE FIRST FRONT MAY BE A
WEAKENING FRONT/TROUGH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN TO CUT
BACK ON TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THE NEXT FRONT MAY BE A STRONGER BACK
DOOR TYPE FRONT ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN
THE FORECAST AND CUT TEMPS AGAIN A FEW MORE DEGREES ON THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY START TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY BUT VFR ALL THE
WAY. LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFTS EXPECTED NEAR LAKE ERIE BUT THE WIND
IN GENERAL WILL VEER FROM LIGHT WESTERLY TO LIGHT EASTERLY BY
FRIDAY.

.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT FROM CANADA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND ON THE LAKE WITH
WAVES BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS SO WAVES SHOULD NOT BE MUCH HIGHER
THAN 2 FEET...MAYBE A LIGHT CHOP ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN. THIS
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO
LAKE ERIE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MULLEN