-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 240134
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
934 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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MUCH COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN IS JUST EAST OF TOLEDO (AT 930 PM). SOME
DRIZZLE COULD LINGER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER THE MAIN AREA OF
RAIN MOVES EAST...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE FROM VERMILION
AND MANSFIELD EAST WHERE THERE MAY BE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS.
THE 850 MB TEMP AT DTX WAS ALREADY DOWN TO +2C AT 00Z AND PROGGED
TO DROP TO -2C. THE SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
FRIDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD SQUEEZE THE INVERSION ALTHOUGH WE COULD
HANG ON TO LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FOR A WHILE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SNOWBELT.

DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST LOWS...MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. TOO MUCH WIND FOR ANY FROST...EVEN WHERE
IT BEGINS TO CLEAR ACROSS NW OHIO.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE STORY DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. LATEST CONVECTIVE SREF HAS THE SHOWERS GONE BY MID MORNING
TOMORROW. REALISTICALLY ONLY THE FAR NE TIP OF OH AND NW PA HAS A
LEGITIMATE SHOT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP AFTER DAYBREAK. THE REST OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE NOT ONLY TOMORROW
BUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO NUDGE
TEMPS DOWN WITH EACH NEW RUN. HAVE GONE MID 30S OVER MOST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. NO
HEADLINES FOR THE TIME BEING. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...CONDITIONS
NEED TO BE NEARLY PERFECT TO GET REALLY COLD. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS
TAKE A CLOSER LOOK TO SEE WHAT CLOUDS AND WINDS DO. SUSPECT THAT
WE MAY GET CLOSE TO A FREEZE IN THE FAR EAST. HAVE EXPANDED THE
MENTION OF FROST IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL BE A GOOD 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ALL OF THE NEW
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SYSTEM MOVING SE OUT OF THE NORTH PLAINS. RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE IMPACTS OF THIS STORM WILL BE JUST TO THE
SW OF US SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY BUT
HAVE BROUGHT IN A FEW MORE CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ON MONDAY AS IT SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SET UP A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THAT
APPEARS WILL LAST FOR SOME TIME ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS INDICATE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SET UP OVER OR
NEAR BERMUDA AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND THEN EXTEND THE RIDGE
WEST ALL THE WAY TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AS IT SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY.

WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO TAP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BRING
WITH IT HIGHER DEW POINTS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A SHOT OF POSITIVE VORTICITY TO ROTATE INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING WITH IT
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA AND ERI WILL EXPERIENCE A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SOON. IFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL
BUT NW OHIO WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE EXPANDING FROM CLE EASTWARD WITH
A FEW STRONGER SHOWERS REMAINING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODELS ARE
PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH DRY AIR APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH CEILINGS
IMPROVING AND EVEN CLEARING OUT OF TOL/FDY BY AROUND 06Z AND MFD
CLOSER TO 10Z. WILL HOLD ONTO IFR CEILINGS AT YNG/ERI THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE...BEFORE SKIES FINALLY
SCATTER OUT TOWARDS 18Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BREEZY IN NE OHIO/NW PA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT FLAGS ARE FLYING NOW AS WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO INCREASE WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ALLOWING WAVES TO BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS FINALLY
DIMINISH ON SATURDAY DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BUT COULD KEEP THE LAKE
FAIRLY CHOPPY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OVER
THE REGION...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...LOMBARDY