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000
FXUS61 KCLE 211907
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
306 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO BY
THURSDAY MORNING PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
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THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE TONIGHT WITH SOME WIND SHEAR. THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE BIG
QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE WILL THERE BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO GENERATE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OR NOT. DON`T SEE ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION
FOR ANY SEVERE WATCHES TO BE ISSUED ANY TIME SOON.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH LOWS STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH
BELOW 67.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR TSRA WILL PEAK WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT
SO HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CONTINUED FOR THIS TIME. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SSE ACROSS THE CWA THU. WITH DYNAMICAL HELP
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING SE ACROSS
THE AREA...SHOULD SEE SCT TO LIKELY SHRA AND SOME TSRA ON THU WITH
MOST OF THE THREAT SHIFTING SE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THU NIGHT.

SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHRA MAY LINGER IN THE SNOWBELT FRI MORNING BUT
SHOULD END DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS BY FRI WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS FRI MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR NE TO THE MID
60S SW. A CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED
TO RUN FROM 40 TO 45 DEGREES.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE 00Z RUNS.  BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS NOW SHOW CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH DURING THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
QUIET AND DRY WITH FAIR SKIES.  WILL TRY FOR FOUR DRY DAYS IN A
ROW.  TEMPS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  A LOT OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
PERIOD.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORE UNCERTAINTY TODAY AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES GO. MUCH DRIER AIR
HAS WORKED INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN
INTO THE 50S. HAVING A TOUGH TIME EVEN GETTING CU THAT AREA AND
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS APPEAR MINIMAL. MODELS
SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO LOWER MI LATER TODAY WHICH
COULD KICK OFF SOME TSRA ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD COME CLOSE
TO KTOL. FURTHER EAST THE AIRMASS REMAINS MORE UNSTABLE. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SOME POP UP STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL USE A COMBINATION OF TEMPOS AND VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE DRY WITH JUST PATCHY MVFR
FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A MORE ACTIVE DAY AND
WILL BRING MORE PRECIP INTO THE WEST TOWARD MIDDAY. GUSTY S TO SW
FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
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SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES LAKE
ERIE ON THURSDAY.  THE FLOW WILL BECOME WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.  SPEEDS WILL PICK UP CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WILL LIKELY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.  SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH ON
FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
OVER THE WEEKEND.  RESULTING WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY.  SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY AT SOME POINT.
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&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...LOMBARDY