-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 160057
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
857 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND DRAG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL DROP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND PUSH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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THE LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE
UPWARD MOTION WILL BE SPENT JUST MOISTENING UP THE AIR MASS. THE
SHOWERS ARE LIGHT...MOSTLY SPRINKLES... BUT HAVE MADE GOOD
PROGRESS. WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS JUST
ABOUT EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING BUT AGAIN...IT WILL BE LITTLE MORE
THAN A SPRINKLE FOR A LOT OF THE AREA. UPDATED THE EVENING
FORECAST TO INCLUDE A DISTINCT BREAK IN THE SHOWERS FOR A WHILE
TONIGHT. THE BETTER RAIN THREAT COMES AFTER MIDNIGHT...PROBABLY
NOT UNTIL THE PREDAWN HOURS AND SUNDAY MORNING... WHEN THE WEAK
FRONT FROM THE WEST APPROACHES AND THE UPWARD MOTION INCREASES AS
THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT. LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT ALL THAT STEEP BUT GIVEN DECENT DYNAMICS THINK THAT
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY. DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES LATER TONIGHT SO LOWS WILL HOLD IN THE 60S
EXCEPT FOR RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME NE OH/NW PA.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST. THERE SHOULD BE A LOT OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LI/S WILL DIP BELOW ZERO WITH
CAPES OF 1000 J/KG OR MORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS MEANS THUNDER
CHANCES SHOULD BE BETTER THAN TONIGHT. THINGS ARE FORECAST TO DRY
OUT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LATE TOMORROW. SUNDAY NIGHT COULD END UP
BEING MAINLY DRY BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE
EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS STILL PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE
REGION AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE 80S WITH LOW TO MID 60
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. WE COULD END UP SEEING SOME
STRONG STORMS. RIGHT NOW THINK COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE AND WILL HANG ON TO CHANCE POPS. THINGS WILL THEN DRY OUT
QUICKLY EARLY TUESDAY AND WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL BUT A DISTINCT
AIR MASS CHANGE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 70S MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY MID-WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
EAST COAST WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAVE
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE CONDITIONS BUILDING FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S...RECOVERING 3 TO 5 DEGREES
FOR THURSDAY.

WARM ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. LONG RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE RIDGE WITH MOISTURE STARTING
TO SNEAK BACK IN FOR SATURDAY. HAVE ADDED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP HIGHS CONSERVATIVE IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/COVERAGE OF PRECIP
BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOT EVERYTHING ON THE LOCAL RADAR IS ACTUALLY HITTING THE GROUND.
FOR THIS EVENING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS. TSRA CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
FROM IOWA SOUTH INTO MISSOURI WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPC HAS ENTIRE AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER FOR
TONIGHT...BUT FOR TAFS ONLY MENTIONED VCTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF
FOR NOW.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NON VFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS
TONIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO MORE WESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE LAKE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT
WINDS AND GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KEC