-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 161623 AAC
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1223 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.  THE FRONT
WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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BUMPED UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO EVERYWHERE EXCEPT SW PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA WHICH IS COVERED WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM TSRA TO S
AND W.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE DRIVEN BY A WEAK SURFACE WAVE
ON THE FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE WAVE
MOVES TO THE EAST...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
WITH IT. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MOVE
BEFORE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. THE NAM IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND DRY AIR OVER THE
AREA. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT CLOSER AND BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PCPN OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR TODAY. A QUICK LOOK AT THE
SREF SHOWS A MORE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. I AM GOING TO LEAN
TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY...HOWEVER IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD FORM SOUTH OF US 30 THIS
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND I WILL
NOT STRAY FAR FROM THEM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS TRICKY AS THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN THE FORECAST.
THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL DICTATE THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER ON SOLUTIONS WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT.  THE GFS IS THE WETTER OF THE TWO MODELS ON
FRIDAY.  BOTH MODELS CONVERGE ON A BIT OF A SOLUTION FRIDAY NIGHT PUSHING
THE FRONT NORTHWARD.  I WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF US 30.  I WILL PUSH A CHANCE
OF PRECIP ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE MORE OF A WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT SO SCATTERED
PCPN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR EITHER PERIOD.  THE PROBABILITIES
WILL BE LOW AS THERE IS A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED FORCING TO PRODUCE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT SEASONAL AND THERE
WILL NOT MUCH VARIATION WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STILL TRENDING TOWARD RIDGE BUILDING EAST OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIG INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND TRY TO SHOVE
IT OUT OF THE WAY. HOWEVER...RIDGE BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOLDING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
BACK WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS STORM SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL SEND WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AND WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AS
WELL AND KEEP THE REGION IN WARM AIR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAY
BE ON THE LOW SIDE FOR HIGHS AND LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT WILL
LEAN TOWARD COLLABORATION FOR NOW TO SEE IF THIS PATTERN HOLDS UP.

LOW FINALLY DISSIPATES ON WEDNESDAY AND RIDGE AT THE SURFACE SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EAST ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. SO
EXPECTING COOLER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT. COLD FRONT SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TAKING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH IT OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LAKE BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP AT ERIE AND MAY APPROACH CLEVELAND BUT HOLD SHORT.
GRADIENT WINDS TAKE OVER AGAIN AT 23Z IN ERIE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

.OUTLOOK... NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS
SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS AND LIMITED WAVES ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THIS PERIOD. I
DONT ANTICIPATE ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED. ONLY
THREAT DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE A RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER ON
TAP.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...DJB/GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY