-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 220537
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
137 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO BY
THURSDAY MORNING PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR IN
ERIE PA WHERE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SHORELINE.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED FOR TONIGHT AND
HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED.

THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUES FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY DISRUPT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ADD ERROR TO THE 00Z MODEL SUITE. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
SPREADING NORTHEAST TOWARDS INDIANA BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR. CLOUD DEBRIS IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HAVE A
CHANCE POP RETURNING OVERNIGHT...HIGHEST IN THE WEST. THE CLOUD
COVER MAY WORK TO LIMIT INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN
NW OHIO. THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS HOWEVER AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN IN THE WEST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN THE
STRONG FLOW ALOFT BUT HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL CONDITIONS FOR TSRA WILL PEAK WED AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT
SO HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CONTINUED FOR THIS TIME. INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SSE ACROSS THE CWA THU. WITH DYNAMICAL HELP
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING SE ACROSS
THE AREA...SHOULD SEE SCT TO LIKELY SHRA AND SOME TSRA ON THU WITH
MOST OF THE THREAT SHIFTING SE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THU NIGHT.

SOME LAKE ENHANCED SHRA MAY LINGER IN THE SNOWBELT FRI MORNING BUT
SHOULD END DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS BY FRI WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS FRI MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR NE TO THE MID
60S SW. A CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR FRI NIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED
TO RUN FROM 40 TO 45 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE 00Z RUNS.  BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS NOW SHOW CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH DURING THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
QUIET AND DRY WITH FAIR SKIES.  WILL TRY FOR FOUR DRY DAYS IN A
ROW.  TEMPS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  A LOT OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN IOWA AT 06Z WILL MOVE EAST TO THE CENTRAL
LAKES BY EVENING. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AFTER 00Z. EXPECTING SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
AND/OR DEVELOP ACROSS THE AFTER 14Z-16Z WEST AND 16-18Z ELSEWHERE.
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN EXACT INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SO FOR NOW
WILL BE MORE GENERAL WILL FORECAST CONVECTION 12 HOURS OUT. FOR
THE OVERNIGHT EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING
HAZE/FOG CAK AND YNG.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES LAKE
ERIE ON THURSDAY.  THE FLOW WILL BECOME WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.  SPEEDS WILL PICK UP CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND
WILL LIKELY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.  SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH ON
FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
OVER THE WEEKEND.  RESULTING WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY.  SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY AT SOME POINT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LOMBARDY