-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 172217
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
617 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
ON TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE LARGELY ENDED ALTHOUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AN AREA OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE NORTH SIDE OF LAKE ERIE. THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAY REACH NE
OHIO/NW PA THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY IS LOWER OVER THERE BUT ONE
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT...PRODUCING SEVERE
WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND MAY HOLD TOGETHER. THE BETTER
INSTABILITY THAT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA IS ACROSS NW OHIO BUT
THERE IS LITTLE CU ON VISIBLE SATELLITE SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS
WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RE- DEVELOP AT THAT TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST. CONVECTION HAS
FORMED ALONG A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
HAS BEEN REPORTED BUT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND. THE 88D IS SHOWING ALL SORTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FLOATING AROUND AND HARD TO TELL WHERE AND WHEN MORE STORMS MAY
FORM. AS A RESULT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL LOWER MI WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS ARE ALSO FIRING ALONG THAT FEATURE
AND COULD EVENTUALLY FIND THEIR WAY TO THE AREA. SUSPECT THAT MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY BUT THOSE FEW SPOTS THAT DO SEE PRECIP
COULD GET AN INCH OR MORE OF QPF. IT REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH
CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO HIGH SO
THE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THE ONLY THING
REALLY LACKING TODAY IS A GOOD LIFTING MECHANISM. BY LATE TONIGHT
THE NW END OF THE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE
STORMS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MIDDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOW TO LOWER SO
SOME CAPE AND INSTABILITY IS LIKELY. THE DRY SHOULD BEGIN TO WIN
OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. BY TUESDAY EVENING ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY
WITH SKIES RAPIDLY BECOMING CLEAR. QUIET AND COOL WEATHER WILL
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS USUAL HAVE USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
SUNDAY . EXPECTING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY AS BOTH MODELS PUSH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH.  USED
THE FASTER GFS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LEADING EDGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE ERIE
LAKESHORE. MODERATE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH CAPES OVER
2,000 J/KG BUT NOT A LOT OF LIFT OR SHEAR. MODELS DEVELOP MORE
PRECIP AHEAD OF SECONDARY TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH MOVES ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA OVERNIGHT. LOW
CONFIDENCE HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING MIST/FOG.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
TROUGH/WEAK SECONDARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT.  BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST.  MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS AT THIS POINT.   GFS WINDS NE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WHILE NAM IS
THE STRONGEST WITH NE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS.  ECMWF AND CONTINUITY
WERE 10 TO 15 KNOTS SO WENT WITH THAT FOR THE FORECAST.  SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.   WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE LAKE.  QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KEC/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB