-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 200517
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
117 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS. CONTINUING WITH THE
MOSTLY CLEAR...THAT SHOULD WORK FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.
STILL WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN INDIANA AROUND 4 AM EDT AND
MOVING EAST. IF IT DEVELOPS IT SHOULD NOT REACH TOLEDO AND FINDLAY
AREAS UNTIL 7 OR 8 AM. NO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT GETTING HIGHER.

THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE SOME CLOUDS MAY FORM OVER NORTHEAST OH
AND NORTHWEST PA TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CHALLENGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE TRYING TO TIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PLAINS UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH OVER THE AREA
ON MONDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING IN
NW OHIO. OTHERWISE EXPECTING THE AIRMASS TO LARGELY BE CAPPED AS
700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 8C. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER
80S IN NW OHIO...TAPERING TO THE LOWER 80S IN NW PA.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TO INCREASE ON MONDAY
NIGHT AS ENERGY TRIES TO ROUND THE RIDGE...WITH POPS UP TO 50-60
PERCENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA BY THAT TIME AND MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF
THE TROUGH ACROSS NW OHIO. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AS DEWPOINTS MAKE A PUSH TOWARDS THE UPPER 60S.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES INCLUDE THE TOLEDO AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR LATE TUESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS EASTWARD. WOULD EXPECT GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME TO BE STRONG TO
SEVERE AGAIN. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL KNOCK HIGHS
BACK DOWN TOWARDS THE LOWER 80S.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH
MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY.  THE GFS
INDICATES A SHORT WAVE AND AN AREA OF MOISTURE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
THAT WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
FORECAST WILL CONTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.  I WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WITH DEW POINTS CREEPING INTO THE 60S DO EXPECT MORE MVFR BR THIS
MORNING...BUT WIND SHOULD HELP IT FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD. SHORT
TERM MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE TSRA IN ILLINOIS...LATEST HRR
MOVE TSRA INTO NW OH BY 12Z. FOR NOW WILL ONLY ADD VCTS TO TOL AND
FDY SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR PROBABLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
LOCAL EFFECTS ARE DOMINATING THE WINDS OVER THE LAKE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE HAS TURNED THE NEARSHORE WINDS TO A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION FOR MANY LOCATIONS.  THESE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND EVENTUALLY WEAKEN.  A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RETURN OVER THE LAKE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A SIMILAR PATTERN TO TODAY WILL BE OBSERVED ON MONDAY.  THE FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...GARNET