-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 181405
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1005 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WILL DISSIPATE BY
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLDS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
OUR FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND MORE HUMID EARLY IN THE
WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SHOWERS CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND EXPAND ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO...APPROACHING AREAS FROM MARION TO MOUNT VERNON. THE
12Z ILN SOUNDING WAS CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST THAN THE AIRMASS
TO THE NORTH AND THESE SHOWERS SEEM TO BE DRIVEN BY MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE 700MB TROUGH. MODELS DO INDICATE A
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOUR. RAISED POPS THIS
MORNING FOR OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT LEFT AFTERNOON POPS
FAIRLY LOW. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE MONITORING RADAR TRENDS FOR NEXT
UPDATE.

EARLY MORNING ISSUANCE...MOSTLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS THIS
MORNING...WITH THE OVER RUNNING SYNOPTIC CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES CLIPPING EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND AREAS EAST OF
PAINESVILLE. TO THE SOUTH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEAR
COLUMBUS.

THE ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE SPRINKLES
NEAR ERIE WILL THIN AND DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE OLD UPPER
LOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. NOT SURE HOW ACTIVE THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BECOME TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE UNDER
THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING. THIS COULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION. WILL
FORECAST RELATIVELY LOW POP...GENERALLY 10-35 PERCENT WITH THE
HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE SOUTH AND DRY (POP LESS THAN 15 PERCENT)
ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE WHERE THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE
SHOULD KEEP THINGS STABLE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE
OR TWO COOLER AT INLAND LOCATIONS DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS. A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE THE WIND IS NOT OFF
THE WATER THIS MORNING.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE DRY EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY EARLY IN THE WEEK
WE WILL SEE INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. FORECAST HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER AND MID
80S. WITH ENOUGH SUN AND LACK OF SHOWERS COULD EVEN SEE UPPER 80S IN
A FEW LOCATIONS MONDAY OR TUESDAY. NOT AS WARM WEDNESDAY AS
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE MORE NUMEROUS BY THAT TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND WITH A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS
MOVES THE LOW OUT. AT THIS TIME CONTINUING A GENERALLY DRY TREND
FRIDAY...EXCEPT KEPT 30 POPS OVER NW PA. USED A BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STILL WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THE
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD WAS HIGH ENOUGH AND WITH SOME CLOUDS...
FOG DID NOT FORM. OTHERWISE FOR TODAY WATCHING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVING UP FROM COLUMBUS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW THAT
WAS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND WAS MOVING NORTH AND WEAKENING. THE
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NE TODAY AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE
UPPER LOW SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THEY WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE BECAUSE OF
AN ONSHORE FLOW. SOME OF THE MODELS HINT AT THE SHOWERS MOVING UP
AND DISSIPATING AND NOT MUCH DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
DOESN`T SEEM REASONABLE...SO WENT VCTS AT MFD...CAK AND YNG AS
THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY AND OMEGA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MODERATE. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE AROUND
DARK.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND IN FOG THAT MAY OCCUR AROUND DAYBREAK.

&&

.MARINE...
A TRICKY LAKE FORECAST WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO. ALL THE MODELS AGREE THE WINDS WILL PICK
UP ON THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. EARLY
THIS MORNING THE WINDS AND WAVES ARE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE. WILL GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON THE WEST END FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT. THE REST OF THE LAKE
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ142>145.
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&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KEC/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA