000
FXUS61 KCLE 151610 AAC
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1210 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND THEN STALL
JUST TO OUR SOUTH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO SOUTHERN
OHIO FRIDAY AND THEN RETURN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AS A WARM
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRIED TO TWEAK THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOWERS ARE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA...GENERATED AS WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AIR GETS LIFTED OVER A WARM FRONT. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING THE NEW NAM12
SURFACE PRESSURE PROG PUTS IT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF A MFD-YNG
LINE. THE NAM12 CAPE FIELD SHOWS MOST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS TO OUR
SOUTH TODAY WITH THE AXIS AT 00Z FROM ROUGHLY DAYTON TO PBZ. WILL
HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR THE SHOWERS OCCURRING NOW AND THEN BRIEFLY
DROP TO CHANCE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BEFORE EXPANDING LIKELY
POPS AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. REMAINED
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN STALL.
THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY DROP TO SOUTHERN OHIO FRIDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
EXPECTING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO REMAIN DRY. FRIDAY THE HIGH
DOES APPEAR TO BE A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL
BRING IN CHANCE POPS TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
TRIGGER A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. FORTUNATELY FOR US...THIS MEANS
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL ARRIVE RIGHT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EVER SO SLOWLY NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY.

THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
EACH PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE PERIODS APPEAR THAT IT WILL BE MONDAY
WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY COULD REMAIN FOR THE MOST
PART DRY WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. BUT WILL LEAVE
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN EACH PERIOD FOR NOW UNTIL WE GET A
BETTER LOOK AT TIMING.

DUE TO THE FACT THAT FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR EACH
PERIOD...GUIDANCE APPEARS THAT IT COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
TEMPERATURES. SO WILL BE RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THIS
GO AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS WELL
AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
JET MAY BE HELPING TO ENHANCE SOME OF THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES BELOW VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BACK UP
AGAIN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR BRIEF HIGHER WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
OR HIGHER WITH THE CONVECTION.

.OUTLOOK... NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY OUT OF
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE HIGHEST WAVES OFF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS AND THEREFORE SHOULD NOT NEED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WAVES. AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY LATER TODAY...WINDS
DIMINISH IN SPEED CONSIDERABLY BY EVENING AND THIS SHOULD DIMINISH
ANY THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS WELL.

AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY...THE LAKE APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE
RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SO...NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...DJB/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY