000
FXUS61 KCLE 150126 AAB
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
926 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO THE
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AND DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST. CIRRUS SPREADING IN
FROM WEST BUT NOT MUCH ELSE TO SPEAK OF. WINDS SHOULD STAY JUST
LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM TANKING.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
LINGERING MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED CUMULUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING
AS THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO DROP FIVE TO TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. LINGERING
MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED CUMULUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING AS THE
AIR MASS DRIES OUT. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO
DROP FIVE TO TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM /6AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/..
SATURDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY AND DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER
THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TWO TO THREE DEGREES WARMER
THAN FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL START TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY NIGHT. A WAVE
WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. RAIN APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AND HAVE BUMPED UP PRECIP CHANCES SLIGHTLY. SUSPECT
THAT WE WILL EVENTUALLY NEED LIKELY OR HIGHER WORDING. THERE
SHOULD BE A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE TO THE PRECIP SHIELD ON TUESDAY.
THINK THIS CUTOFF WILL BE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HAVE
REMOVED SHOWERS FROM MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA WED INTO FRI TO PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UPPER TROFFINESS PRESENT OVER
THE LAKES WHICH COULD TRY AND PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AT
SOME POINT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT TEND TO RUN
POPS CLOSER TO THE 15% CUTOFF FOR MENTIONING PRECIP.

TEMPS SHOULD RUN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ESSENTIALLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...PATCHY MVFR GROUND FOG/MIST LIKELY IN LOW LYING AND RURAL
AREAS. INCLUDED IT IN THE KCAK AND KYNG TAF FORECAST BEFORE
DAYBREAK. ISOLATED IFR VISIBILITY FOG POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS
AROUND DAYBREAK. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NON VFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK WEATHER FEATURES WILL PREVAIL THRU NEXT WEDNESDAY SO WINDS WILL
STAY RELATIVELY LIGHT...10 KNOTS OR LESS MOST OF THE TIME.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND SUNDAY MORNING WHEN SW
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.

THE LIGHT FLOW WILL ALLOW WINDS TO TURN TURN ONSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON MOST DAYS AS A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...YEAGER
NEAR TERM...DJB/YEAGER
SHORT TERM...KUBINA/YEAGER
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ADAMS