-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 241326
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
926 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND STICK
AROUND THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND NEXT
WEEK...WITH 70+ READINGS FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE ALREADY OUT AND HAVE GONE WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WEST AND HAVE ALSO
LOWERED TEMPS MOST AREAS. SUSPECT THAT TEMPS IN THE EAST MAY STILL
BE A TAD HIGH. LITTLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED OVER THE EAST 1/3 TO
1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

ORIGINAL...SIGNIFICANT AREA OF CLEARING HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO TOLEDO AND
MARION EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT HAS SINCE FILLED IN PARTIALLY.
OVERALL CLEARING WILL BE THE TREND FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE
SNOWBELT COUNTIES WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATE IN DAY. STRATUS
POURING DOWN LAKE HURON AND WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND -2C WOULD EXPECT
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO HANG ON A WHILE. MEASURABLE PRECIP HAS ENDED
FOR FOR OHIO...AND LIKELY NW PA. A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 10
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS WAS NOTED YESTERDAY...MOS GUIDANCE
KEEPS TRENDING DOWNWARD. FORECAST IS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN
WE WERE FORECASTING A FEW DAYS AGO...BUT DID NOT GO AS COOL AS
THIS MORNINGS GUIDANCE. UPSTREAM YESTERDAY WHERE IT CLEARED OUT
ACROSS WI AND NW IL IT MADE IT INTO THE 60S...WITH 50S WHERE IT
REMAINED CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH H8 TEMPS WERE A TAD WARMER. WILL STICK
WITH 50 NW PA AND LOWER 60S FOR I-75 CORRIDOR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
`
WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND...BIGGEST CONCERN
WILL BE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FROST BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS. EACH NIGHT STILL HAS ITS POTENTIAL ISSUES THAT
WOULD INHIBIT TOO MUCH FROST DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE POSSIBILITY IS
THERE. SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IT IN THE FORECAST AND
HWO...BUT FORGO ANY FROST ADVISORY HEADLINE UNTIL THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON...IF NEEDED. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME CLOUD COVER. MODELS INDICATING WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES. WITH A GOOD TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN
THE LAKE AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION JET MAXIMA ACCOMPANIES THE SHORTWAVE...SO
THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. IF WE END UP REALLY LACKING
ANY MOISTURE AND THE WINDS CALM...THEN YES WE WOULD PROBABLY HAVE
FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS OF BOTH OH AND PA. A
FREEZE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL ACROSS INLAND NW PA AND FAR EASTERN
OH.

EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT FROM THE
DAY BEFORE...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THE NIGHTS WILL STILL BE
COOL. SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STILL ON TRACK TO PASS SOUTH
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THIS MIGHT CAUSE ISSUES WITH
FROST OR NOT. BEST POTENTIAL AGAIN IS FOR INLAND EASTERN OHIO AND
NW PA. WILL GO FROM HIGH TEMPS BETWEEN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S
SATURDAY TO 65 TO 70 BY MONDAY. STILL HAVE A FEW MID 30S FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUT OF THE WOODS AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS TUESDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. OVERRUNNING FLOW ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY COULD GIVE US CLOUDS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  WILL HAVE LOW
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE MODELS
BUILD THE RIDGE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK SO
LOWERED GUIDANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TO SLIGHT CHANCE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PORTION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD DRY AIR MOVING IN...HOWEVER...A LAYER OF MVFR
CLOUDS IS DESCENDING UPON THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT THAT THIS MVFR
DECK WILL LAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BELIEVE KTOL AND KFDY WILL BE
LARGELY UNAFFECTED. KMFD IS CLOSE TO THE WESTERN EDGE AND WILL MIX
DRIER AIR IN QUICKLY. WILL HAVE DECK LAST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS AND
THEN SHOULD GO SCATTERED 14-16Z. KCLE HELD ONTO MVFR CIGS THROUGH
16Z. KCAK KYNG AND KERI HELD ONTO THE DECK DEEPER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BE A BIT PESSIMISTIC BUT REALLY DONT THINK
CLEARING WILL BE QUICK. TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ACROSS THE
AREA. SHOULD BE CLEAR SKIES BUT WILD CARD OF COURSE WILL BE
POTENTIAL CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP
AREA CLEAR/VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA.

.OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT.  NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE 20 TO 25 KNOTS APPROACHING 30
KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TREND BEGINS
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA EXPECT NEARSHORE WATERS
TO BE CHOPPY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK