-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 171407
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1007 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BISECT THE STATE OF OHIO FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. A
REINFORCING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --
THERE IS A SHARP GRADIENT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 NEAR THE LAKESHORE TO THE
LOWER 60S SOUTH OF ROUTE 30. AREAS OF FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA
SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY. MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW AND WILL MIX
OUT QUICKLY WITH THE STRONG HEATING THAT IS EXPECTED. MORNING
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 WELL SOUTH
OF THE LAKE WHILE A COOLER LAKE BREEZE WILL HOLD TEMPERATUES DOWN
NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. COOLER AIR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AS SEEN
ON THE BUF 12Z SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE LAKESHORE NEAR ERI
IN THE UPPER 60S. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE MOST PART
AND HAVE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES GIVEN THE DRYING AND SINKING MOTION EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.
-- End Changed Discussion --



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. VIGOROUS VORTICITY
MAXIMUM EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHERN OHIO WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL ONLY
TAKE THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS FAR NORTHEAST AS LAKE AND SOUTHERN
ASHTABULA COUNTIES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES
OF NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

IMPULSE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND TAKES
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH IT. THIS SHOULD SET UP FOR A DRY DAY ON
SUNDAY.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BUT A REINFORCING WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DRY SLOT THAT COULD OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WE ARE LOOKING AT SOME PRETTY WARM TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE FORECAST
AREA STILL REMAINS ON THE THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. I THINK
WITH THE DRY SLOT POTENTIAL...THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION MAY
DIMINISH OVER TIME AS NEW MODELS ARRIVE.  BUT WILL LEAVE A MENTION
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO GIVE WAY TO THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER IN SOUTHERN OHIO. THE INSTABILITY
AND DEEP MOISTURE COMPONENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL TRY TO
MOVE NORTHWARD AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOOK FOR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
IN SOUTHERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PATCHES OF MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF TODAY. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR TAF ROUTES KMFD AND KCAK.

WINDS GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO HINT AT A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN COMING INTO
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT MOVES SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD. IF THIS OCCURS...KFDY AND KMFD COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS BY 00Z TO 06Z SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL KEEP A NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
FLOW. SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 KT NEAR TOLEDO...TO 10 TO 15
KT FROM CLEVELAND EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER WAVES OVER THE
WESTERN BASIN AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO LAKE ERIE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JAMISON