-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
334
FXUS61 KCLE 050004
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
804 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern will continue through at least the
middle of next week. A warm front will lift northward across
the region this afternoon. Low pressure will move west to east
through the Great Lakes tonight into Sunday pulling a weak cold
front across the area. This frontal boundary will stall across
southern Ohio Monday as weak high pressure builds over the
Great Lakes Region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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7 PM Update
Minor adjustments to pops to reflect ongoing trends, otherwise
no major changes to the forecast. Will likely need to look at
lowering pops overnight for much of the area, with
scattered/isolated being more of the flavor after 06Z across
the area. Will also need to assess fog potential as well,
although patchy wording still looks representative at this time.

Original discussion...
The next 24 hours now through Sunday evening will remain
unsettled scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms
possible. OVerall the weather will be warm and a little wet at
times with passing showers but not a total washout this weekend.

A small mid level disturbance is tracking across eastern Ohio
this afternoon. It shows up fairly well on the KCLE radar with
slight swirl in the reflectivity. A warm front is lifting
through the area this afternoon into the evening. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the
late evening before decreasing in coverage after midnight. Any
areas that sees rainfall today may see some patchy fog late
tonight into early Sunday morning.

A weak cold front will move from west to east across northern
Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania Sunday afternoon. Rain chances
will increase between 40 to 60 percent midday Sunday into the
afternoon with the frontal passage. Thermodynamics looks limited
but may be just enough for the potential of a couple strong to
severe storms possible Sunday afternoon. SPC has NEOH and NWPA
in a marginal threat on the Day 2 outlook. An isolated damaging
wind gust would be the main hazard with any organized and
stronger storm. Rain chances will gradually decrease by Sunday
evening after the frontal passage and weak high pressure builds
in over the Great Lakes. High temps on Sunday will be in the
middle to upper 70s areawide.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
By Monday, the short wave from the Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes
will rotate east and become negatively tilted. This move will
provide a northwest descent flow over the Great Lakes on Monday. As
a result, drying will occur across Lake Erie, lakeshore counties and
at least county inland. At the same time, a slight disturbance
underneath the ridge axis and moisture will provide a threat of rain
and thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley and central Ohio Monday
afternoon. High temperatures will be near normal around 70F Monday
afternoon. Short wave over the Ohio Valley will continue to lift
northeast and maintain a threat of showers Monday night.

A vigorous wave lifting east from the Four Corners on Monday will
evolve into the closed low over the Dakotas Tuesday morning. The
upper level low will remain stationary over the Northern Plains and
yield increased thickness layers across the area. The associated
surface low will drag a warm front across the area Tuesday. As a
result, temps will increase for highs approaching 80 on Tuesday and
lows remaining in the 60s Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front will push through Wednesday morning. Limited to nil
cold air advection will take hold on Wednesday. The main surface low
will finally track east across Ohio on Thursday. As the low passes
through the forecast area Thursday, another cold front pushes
through late Thursday. With moisture remaining play and warm sector
the Ohio Valley Wednesday and Thursday, the better chance of strong
to severe convection is possible just west of the late Tuesday,
southwest of the forecast area on Wednesday, and south half of the
forecast on Thursday. There is still great deal of uncertainty with
the instability and shear in the middle of next week. Elevated rain
chances will exist Tuesday through Thursday. As a result, periods of
rainfall could cause some impacts across northern Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania during the middle of next week. Cooler air will finally
return on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
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At the onset of the TAF period, SHRA and some TSRA could impact
KTOL for the first few hours of the period, but otherwise,
scattered SHRA across the region has a low probability of impact
to the terminals through the period. Some deterioration in
flight category through the night possible with some IFR stratus
spreading northeast through KCAK now and KYNG and possibly KMFD
through 06Z. Some MVFR BR and/or cigs possible at the other
terminals through 12Z. Some scattering and lifting of ceilings
after 12Z is expected with improvements in flight categories.
Some SHRA/TSRA possible along/west of KMFD to KCLE line after
18Z, but probability too low for TAF mention at this time. Winds
generally remain southeast to southerly overnight, becoming more
southwesterly to westerly through the day Sunday. Some southeast
gusts 25-30 kts cannot be ruled out early in the period at KERI.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms
on Tuesday and Wednesday.
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&&

.MARINE...
Southeasterly winds are expected with the eastern legs or
Pennsylvania waters approaching 15 to 20 knots late tonight.
Surface low will push east across Lake Erie Sunday will allow
winds to subside on Sunday and become northerly Sunday night.
Aside from relatively brisk offshore winds across the eastern
basin tonight, winds will remain below 15kts and wave heights in
the nearshore and open waters to remain below 2ft except for
Monday. Waves could briefly be over 2ft in northerly winds
behind a cold front at that time in the central and western
basin, and again towards the end of next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Griffin
SHORT TERM...FZ
LONG TERM...FZ
AVIATION...Greenawalt
MARINE...FZ