-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 180009
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
809 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ACROSS THE STATE OF OHIO FROM WEST TO EAST WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT AND BECOME QUITE DIFFUSE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE
EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND PRODUCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED TO BUMP UP POPS ACROSS SW THIRD OF FORECAST AREA FOR THIS
EVENING. SHOWER DEVELOPED NEAR MFD IN AREA OF ISODROSOTHERM
PACKING...WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO MOVE TOO
FAST.  SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
A LONE SHOWER HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE DEWPOINT GRADIENT THIS
AFTERNOON OVER RICHLAND COUNTY AND OTHER ENHANCED CU ARE ALIGNED
FARTHER WEST NEAR FDY. THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THIS LINE SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES WITH
MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WARMER AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AND BECOMES DIFFUSE.
HIGHER HUMID WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND MAY SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS INTO MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING BUT
CONFIDENCE AND TIMING IS RATHER UNCERTAIN.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BUT FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME SO WILL JUST
INCLUDE A SMALL TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARDS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.  INITIALLY ON TUESDAY IT
APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AS
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THIS ENVIRONMENT BUT WITH A LACK OF A
KICKER...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED.  THE GFS SUGGESTS A
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.  WHILE ALL THE PERIODS NEXT WEEK
APPEAR TO BE UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT APPEAR TO BE
THE TWO PERIODS WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS AND THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING
AND SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL THICKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
FOG FORMATION IN THE MORNING HOURS AT FDY...MFD AND CAK. FOG WILL
NOT BE AS DENSE AS YESTERDAY MORNING GIVEN THE HIGHER MID LEVEL
MOISTURE PRESENT TODAY. HOWEVER VISIBILITIES COULD STILL DROP TO MVFR OR
IFR. A SHORTWAVE OF ENERGY WILL TRAVEL EAST ALONG THE
QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO FDY AND MFD. HOWEVER
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL MAKE
IT HARD FOR THE SHOWERS TO PENETRATE THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW HAVE
INCLUDED A VCSH AT MFD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST/EAST INTO SATURDAY EVENING. LAKE BREEZE WILL KICK IN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SHIFTING THE WINDS MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST.

.OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
INCREASES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS LOCKED INLAND KEEPING AN EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER QUEBEC WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY DOMINANT FLOW OVER THE LAKE. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE SO SPEEDS WILL LINGER AROUND
15KT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TURN THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS UNDER 15 KT ON THE COOLER
WATER. THE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY. SOME ISOLATED 4 FT
WAVES POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WAVES
1-3 FT THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ142-143.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...DJB/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...YEAGER
MARINE...JAMISON