Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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223
FXUS64 KCRP 230015 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
715 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for 00z aviation.

&&

.AVIATION...

A few lingering showers remain across South Texas at this time but
should not pose a threat to any of the terminals. VFR ceilings
this evening should transition to MVFR and possible IFR at times
ALI/CRP. Renewed shower activity may occur towards morning, with
better chances of storms during the afternoon. For now, VCTS
remarks were included at ALI/CRP/VCT to account for thunderstorm
potential.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 413 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...

MSAS continues to depict the quasi-stationary boundary near and
parallel to the coast, and deterministic output maintain the
general position of this boundary Tonight/early Tuesday before it
dissipates. Thus, anticipate additional isold/sct convection
mainly over the ERN CWA/MSA Tonight/Tuesday. Concur with the
GFS/ECMWF deterministic that an upper level disturbance will dig
S/SE across the Plains during the period and reinforce/maintain
the upper trough over the CNTRL CONUS. In response, a cold front
is expected to move across the CWA/MSA Tuesday night. This front,
significant moisture (NAM determinsitic), and increasing upper
jet dynamics (GFS deterministic) should result in additional
convection Tuesday afternoon/evening in advance of the front.
Given the increased vertical shear and high CAPE values, strong
convection may occur. SPC has the CWA in a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms Tuesday. Increasing offshore flow expected Tuesday
night over the MSA in response to frontal passage.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...

Much quieter weather is expected by Wednesday in wake of the exiting
front. Northerly wind and drier conditions will develop. Cooler
temperatures will be felt briefly Wednesday but be most noticeable
during the overnight hours. South to southeast flow redevelops
Wednesday night with a gradual warming and increase in moisture
through the end of the week. Developing and deepening of surface low
pressure across the high plains Thursday will lead to breezy
conditions across South Texas, especially the Coastal Bend and Gulf
waters. Small Craft Advisories will be possible off and on starting
Thursday through the weekend. GFS and ECMWF models show sufficient
moisture returning over the weekend, with slight rain chances
possible by Sunday. The models also show another weak boundary to
move into the area early next week which would increase rain chances
heading into Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    73  85  64  86  69  /  40  30  30  10   0
Victoria          69  84  59  85  65  /  20  40  30  10   0
Laredo            73  90  65  88  69  /  20  20  40  10   0
Alice             71  88  62  88  66  /  30  30  30  10   0
Rockport          74  82  65  84  73  /  40  30  30  10   0
Cotulla           70  88  60  88  65  /  20  30  30  10   0
Kingsville        73  88  63  88  67  /  30  30  40  10   0
Navy Corpus       76  82  68  85  73  /  40  30  30  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION



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