Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 130503
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1103 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Update for 06Z aviation cycle.

&&

AVIATION...

Tonight - Wednesday...VFR. Just some high clouds streaming in from
the west. Light northerly winds will become light and variable
through the mid-morning hours. Expect more of a southerly flow by
Wednesday afternoon, still light. High confidence.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 1021 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/

DISCUSSION...

No changes needed to the forecast for the overnight period with
high pressure in control. Clear skies and light wind will make
great radiational cooling conditions allowing for cold
temperatures tonight across the region.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 357 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...

The cold front has pushed through South Texas with north-northeast
winds this afternoon. Surface high pressure will continue to build
in across the area tonight reinforcing the dry atmosphere before
gradually shifting east through Wednesday. Overnight lows will be
able to dip into the upper 30s to low 40s under mostly clear
skies. Winds will remain light through Wednesday but gradually
take on a more southerly component, first starting across the
western Brush Country during the morning, then farther east
through the late afternoon. Temperatures will be quite similar
today with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s in spots. As
winds become more southerly, a slow return of moisture is
expected.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...

A short wave trough diving south through the Rockies Thursday will
reach the southern high plains Thursday evening. This will push a
cold front down into the region Thursday evening with offshore flow
increasing to moderate to strong levels early Friday morning. Expect
SCA conditions over the Gulf waters. While the short wave trough
moves east on Friday, a piece of energy lags behind over northwest
Mexico with a cutoff low forming. ECMWF shows a strong mid level
moisture tap across Mexico and produces a high amount of QPF over
the region on Friday. GFS/SREF shows drier air in the lower levels
as the cold front pushes past the area. Will lean toward the drier
GFS/SREF solutions and will show 20-30 percent chance PoPs across
the southern areas into the coastal waters for the possibility of
elevated moisture return great enough to produce scattered light
showers ahead of the cutoff low. A short wave trough will move into
the northwest part of the United States by Saturday morning that
will kick out the cutoff low to the east as a weakening short wave
trough. The short wave trough will interact with high moisture over
the region to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
Saturday into Saturday night. The short wave trough moves east of
the area Sunday with drier air moving into the area from the west
with high temperatures closer to normal. Another short wave trough
will move into west Texas by Monday that will send a weak front into
the area, but the air mass over the region should be too dry to
warrant mentioning any rain chances at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    40  68  48  73  47  /   0   0  10  10  30
Victoria          36  67  43  69  42  /   0   0  10  10  20
Laredo            42  69  50  69  47  /   0   0   0  10  20
Alice             39  70  47  74  45  /   0   0  10  10  30
Rockport          45  65  51  70  47  /   0   0  10  10  20
Cotulla           39  68  45  69  42  /   0   0   0  10  10
Kingsville        39  72  47  75  46  /   0   0  10  10  30
Navy Corpus       48  67  54  72  49  /   0   0  10  10  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION


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