Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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845
FXUS64 KCRP 182339
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
639 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Aviation discussion for 0Z TAF Updates

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail for much of the forecast period. With
a dry airmass in place, expect little in the way of cloud cover
tonight. South to southeast winds will persist with gusts
subsiding between 2Z - 4Z. Low clouds and patchy fog will be
possible, mainly at KVCT, leading to MVFR conditions during the
early morning hours. VFR conditions will again prevail by 14Z
Saturday.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 348 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday night)...

Satellite imagery shows a weak TUTT low over southern Coahuila
moving to the west. Upper level ridge will hold over the region
through the period as the TUTT low continues to move to the west.
GOES image of precipitable water shows the moisture depth over
the western Gulf of Mexico still below average. Not expecting
isolated showers to form over the coastal waters late tonight into
Saturday morning. Afternoon heat index values will again approach
advisory levels over the southern Coastal Bend Saturday.
Otherwise, persistence temperature forecast was followed for the
period. Some morning clouds will give way to mostly clear skies
for Saturday afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...

The long term forecast period looks to feature a significant pattern
change over the area. As the high pressure ridge breaks down a bit
over the region, a TUTT low currently near Florida will gradually
make its way toward Texas. This will increase moisture into the area
substantially. PWATs should be back up around 2 inches in the area
by Monday. Will expect a diurnal pattern with the convection along
with a sea breeze influence, thus weak convection mainly over the
marine areas at night, spreading inland during the daytime hours. By
the middle to latter half of next week, we could see a bigger push
of moisture depending on the path of Tropical Storm Harvey. Models
showing the possibility of the storm emerging into the Bay of
Campeche after it moves across the Yucatan, and that would still
give us better rain chances...however, confidence is not great yet
in the track and if the storm went much further south it could rob
us of a lot of moisture. Thus will keep just a 20-30 pop in the
forecast for now.

A slight cool down in temperatures is anticipated with the increased
moisture into the area, but only around normal levels...maybe a
couple of degrees below normal some days. Heat index values between
105 and 109 will continue to be possible daily, mainly in the
southern coastal bend. A light to moderate wind field is expected at
this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  97  77  95  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
Victoria          78  98  77  97  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
Laredo            80 104  80 102  78  /  10  10   0  10  10
Alice             76 101  76  99  76  /   0  10   0  10  10
Rockport          82  94  82  95  80  /  10  10  10  10  20
Cotulla           77 103  76 101  76  /   0  10   0  10  10
Kingsville        78 100  77  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       83  95  83  95  81  /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TC/95...AVIATION



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